5/7: Churchill Downs ~ 148th Kentucky Derby Day

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 148TH KENTUCKY DERBY DAY


POST-EARLY SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Like Friday, big card begins with well-matched set that Amoss can win with 2nd out Malibu S S (12-1) who made late progress in Marsalis' Risen Star Day maidenbreaker..

Best Value: #2 Malibu S S 12-1 7th
Next Best: #11 King Ottoman 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Logico 9-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Warrior Johny 3-1 2nd


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Jackie's Warrior workmate Stayed in for Half returns to 3yo company after facing older at OP..

Best Value: #2 STAYED IN FOR HALF 9-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Surfer Dude 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Osbourne 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Great Escape 5-2 4th


3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Lady Rockstar 8-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #8 Talking Book 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Final Belle 3-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Community Adjusted 4-1 4th


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Creative Minister 5-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #2 Bye Bye Bobby 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Money Supply 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Cover Me Up 8-1 2nd


5th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Speak of the Devil 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #6 Lady Speightspeare 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 In Italian 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Abscond 20-1 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 2-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 2 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
3: 3-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
4: 2-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6-8 (A), 7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


P4 Grid:

2: 2 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
3: 2-3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 8 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x3 = $36
All A's: 1x4x3x1 = $12
Backups: 2x4x3x1 = 24 x .50 = $12

.50 Pick 4 (4-3-6-8) Paid $149.60 (C-A-A-A)


6th: Knicks Go, 4+, 1m (All Dirt P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Shared Sense 3-1 6th
Best Value: #1 A C Expressway 15-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Dream Shake 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Necker Island 6-1 4th


All Dirt P5 Grid:

6th: 2 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
7th: 5-10 (A), - (B), 3-12 (C)
8th: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10th: 3 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
12th: 6-7-10-13-15-16 (A), 3-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x1x8 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x1x6 = 36 xx .50 = $18
Backup: 1x2x3x1x6 = 36 x .50 = $18


7th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m ($3 Soph Stake P3, .20 Derby City P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Jack Christopher 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #10 Doppelganger 6-1 6th
Best Value: #12 O Captain 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Pappacap 6-1 2nd


$3 Soph Stake P3 Grid:

7th: 5 (A), 10 (B), 12 (C)
9th: 5-6 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
12th: 7-13-15-16 (A), 3-10 (B), 6-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x6 = 36 x $3 = $108
All A's: 1x2x4 = 8 x $3 = $24
Backups: $24 (12) + $12 (6-12)


8th: Derby City Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (Derby P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Just One Time 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Bell's the One 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Edgeway 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Obligatory 7-2 WON ($9.60)


P5 Grid:

4: 1-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6-8 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
6: 1-2 (A), 4-11 (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
8: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x1x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

5: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-2 (A), 4-11 (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
8: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9


9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (Derby P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Portfolio Company 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Balnikhov 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Stolen Base 12-1 WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Sy Dog 7-2 3rd


10th: Churchill Downs (G1), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Jackie's Warrior 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #6 Prevalence 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Aloha West 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Reinvestment Risk 7-2 2nd


11th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ivar 4-1 -
Next Best: #6 Shirl's Speight 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Adhamo 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Santin 6-1 WON ($16.20)


12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Rarely see my Derby approach morph during the fortnight in Louisville, but this group appears too close in talent to accept short prices on the logical candidates. Today, I'm going to rely on the horses that are being aggressively trained and make the best physical impressions. Simplification (Not This Time) has been 'one of the ones' for me from early in the winter and Antonio Sano ($5MM earner Gunnevera, 7th in '17 Derby) is a horseman that keeps the pedal down on trainees. Should be at the forefront of the mid-pack pace stalkers under adept Jose Ortiz and is sure to be close to his 20-1 starting number. All the qualities of Epicenter at 8x (overnight odds) the price.

White Abarrio (Race Day) is a horse that I've gotten wrong all winter, but impossible to ignore (or avoid) after seeing him in the flesh with neck bowed the last few days. Should be up close behind the speed and in position to get first run under Gaffalione. Cyberknife (Gun Riunner) has had one perfect day after another since arriving from Hot Springs and though lighter on fig power than several of the contenders coming in, his stretch to 9f in the Arkansas Derby showed progress and another forward move with the added furlong can earn the roses. Geroux a rider that happily employs the speed of mounts and Cyberknife will be prominent throughout. I've come to know many Derby winning owners over the years, but Al Gold would be the first long time friend that could hoist the most coveted gold cup in racing.

Japanese invader Crown Pride (Reach the Crown) has been as impressive preparing for the rose run as any horse I've seen on the grounds in the 20+ years I've been coming to the The Ville. Fitness is the paramount quality necessary to annex the Derby and Lemaire will likely have the most horse under him of the 20 that will line up. Simply too glaring to bypass as one of the win candidates. Zandon (Upstart) has made an outstanding presence and will put in his run under Prat. Will have to pass a majority of the field and not guaranteed to get a closer's set up. I'll use Epicenter defensively as well as West Coast players Messier & Taiba. A particularly fascinating 148th running and one where you should be well-served being creative with your choices and ticket building. Get lucky in the Derby!

Best Value: #13 Simplification 20-1 4th
Next Best: #15 White Abarrio 10-1 16th
Exotics Use: #16 Cyberknife 20-1 18th
Super Add: #7 Crown Pride 20-1 13th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Zandon 3-1 3rd


Must Pay .20 Derby City P6 Grid:

7: 5-10
8: 2-6-7
9: 5-6-9
10: 3
11: 1-4-6-8-10
12: 7-13-15-16

All A's: 2x3x3x1x5x4 = 360 x .20 = $72


P5 Grid:

8: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
10: 3 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
11: 1-6 (A), 4-8-10 (B), - (C)
12: 7-13-15-16 (A), 6-10 (B), 1-3-5-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x5x6 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x2x1x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $12 (9 in 9th) + $48 (1-6 in 10th) + $30 (1-3-5-8-12 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

9: 5-6 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
10: 3 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
11: 1-6-8 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
12: 7-13-15-16 (A), 3-6-10-12 (B), 1-5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x5x8 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x1x2x4 = 24 x .18 = $12
Backups: $24 (1-6 in 10th) + $9 (1-5-8 in 12th)


13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Rising Empire 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Candy Tycoon 9-2 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Militarist 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Storm the Court 6-1 5th


14th: MSW, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #11 Strobe 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #7 Elite Power 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Improbable Journey 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Ludwig 6-1 7th


P5 Grid:

10: 3 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
11: 1-6-8 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
12: 6-7-10-13-15-16 (A), - (B), 1-3-5-8-12 (C)
13: 4-6 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
14: 11 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1-5x6x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1-3x6x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 2x3x6x2x1 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1-6 in 10th) + 1x3x5x2x1 =30 x .50 = $15 (1-3-5-8-12 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

11: 1-6-8 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
12: 6-7-10-13-15-16 (A), - (B), 1-3-5-8-12 (C)
13: 4-6 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
14: 11 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x6x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x6x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 3x5x2x1 =30 x .50 = $15


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Early Scratches:

R1: 3, 4, 5
R3: 10
R4: 1a, 5, 13, 14
R5: 1, 3
R6: 10
R12: 20, 22
R13: 1a, 13
R14: 5, 10