Holiday Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Kasept]

SA American Oaks (G1): Rhea Moon-IRE 88 (Starspangledbanner-AUS) P. D'Amato/J. Hernandez
SA Malibu S (G1): Taiba 106 (Gun Runner) B. Baffert/M. Smith
SA La Brea S (G1): Fun to Dream 94 (Arrogate) B. Baffert/J. Hernandez
SA San Gabriel S (G2): Dicey Mo Chara-GB 96 (Adaay-IRE) L. Powell/J. Hernandez
SA San Antonio S (G2): Country Grammer 99 (Tonalist) B. Baffert/L. Dettori
SA Mathis Mile S (G2): One More Bid 91 (California Chrome) R. Hanson/R. Vazquez
SA 2yo MSW (8.5f): Bletchley Park 81 (Nyquist) B. Baffert/J. Hernandez
SA 2yo MSW (6f): Faustin 89 (Curlin) B. Baffert/R. Vasquez
SA 2yo MSW (1m-T): Smart Code 69 (Honor Code) M. Glatt/K. Frey

FG Untapable S: Pretty Mischievous 83 (Into Mischief) B. Walsh/B. Hernandez
FG Tenacious S: Happy American 99 (Runhappy) N. Pessin/J. Graham
FG Letellier Memorial S: Dazzling Blue 74 (Into Mischief) B. Cox/F. Geroux
FG Buddy Diliberto S: Spooky Channel 96 (English Channel) J. Barkley/J. Graham
FG Richard R. Scherer S: Surveillance 102 (Constitution) J. Desormeaux/J. Graham
FG Gun Runner S: Jace's Road 93 (Quality Road) B. Cox/F. Geroux
FG Sugar Bowl S: Corona Bolt 89 (Bolt d'Oro) B. Cox/F. Geroux
FG Blushing K. D. S: Oliviaofthedesert 86 (Bernardini) W. Catalano/C. Lanerie
FG Spanky Broussard S: Moon Swag 80 (Malibu Moon) B. Walsh/C. Lanerie
FG 2yo MSW (8.5f): Banishing 82 (Ghostzapper) B. Walsh/B. Hernandez

GP Tropical Park Derby: Golden Glider 86 (Ghostzapper) M. Casse/J. Morelos
GP Tropical Park Oaks: Candy Light 84 (Candy Ride-ARG) H. Motion/J. Ortiz
GP Janus S: Belgrano 98 (War Front) F. Russo/P. Lopez
GP Abundantia S: Miss J McKay 86 (Hangover Kid) C. Clement/T. Gaffalione

[freddymo]

I am waiting to see the Malibu v LaBrea figs. If you use 102 for taiba the filly fig is a few points too high. I am not sure you can use less than 102 for him, and even that is sort of low, given he won by 4+ lengths

I know he was odds on and much the best.

However, I thought Mike Smiths ride on TAIBA yesterday was very good.

He clearly knows that horse very well.

Have to think that sews up a 3yo Eclipse.

Agree?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I know he was odds on and much the best.

However, I thought Mike Smiths ride on TAIBA yesterday was very good.

He clearly knows that horse very well.

Have to think that sews up a 3yo Eclipse.

Agree?

It comes down to what you think of the group he beat yesterday and your thoughts on epicenter. Jack Christopher not finishing the year didn't hurt Taiba's chances. What do you make of Forbidden Kingdom? They did everything they could to ruin Taiba and they didn't. Mandella did everything to make Forbidden Kingdom better and they didn't. Tale of two horses

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I am waiting to see the Malibu v LaBrea figs. If you use 102 for taiba the filly fig is a few points too high. I am not sure you can use less than 102 for him, and even that is sort of low, given he won by 4+ lengths

Underwhelming performance in an underwhelming field.

Hard ridden throughout, struggled to match strides with the unheralded Straight No Chaser (who by the looks of his stride in the stretch--and subsequent wilt--could use a few months off), and did just enough to keep a bunch of midwest allowance horses and some old Santa Anita Derby also-rans from putting any pressure on him late.

My prediction for the rest of his career:

2nd in the Saudi Cup
last in the San Diego
retired

To be fair, that could be Country Grammer's 2023 campaign, too.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Underwhelming performance in an underwhelming field.

Hard ridden throughout, struggled to match strides with the unheralded Straight No Chaser (who by the looks of his stride in the stretch--and subsequent wilt--could use a few months off), and did just enough to keep a bunch of midwest allowance horses and some old Santa Anita Derby also-rans from putting any pressure on him late.

My prediction for the rest of his career:

2nd in the Saudi Cup
last in the San Diego
retired

To be fair, that could be Country Grammer's 2023 campaign, too.

I do not doubt your prediction. It's hard to have imagined that he would still be winning G1 races on 12/26 after being rushed into the SA derby and Derby. I thought Country Grammer ran his best race in a long time. I bet against him and was dead wrong. Steve is happy Baffert didn't win six as there is a clause in the At the Races handbook that if you win 6, you automatically regain the Tuesday 1140 AM time slot on the show. I am joking, steve

[freddymo]

106 for Malibu and 94 for Labrea... Tough number to make

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I do not doubt your prediction. It's hard to have imagined that he would still be winning G1 races on 12/26 after being rushed into the SA derby and Derby. I thought Country Grammer ran his best race in a long time. I bet against him and was dead wrong. Steve is happy Baffert didn't win six as there is a clause in the At the Races handbook that if you win 6, you automatically regain the Tuesday 1140 AM time slot on the show. I am joking, steve

Yeah, Taiba still winning Grade 1 races over some Mahoning Valley also-ran and two Derby trail disasters with airway issues.

Country Grammer looked good beating Stilleto Boy; puts him in the top 100 of horses that raced in 2022 for sure...

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yeah, Taiba still winning Grade 1 races over some Mahoning Valley also-ran and two Derby trail disasters with airway issues.

Country Grammer looked good beating Stilleto Boy; puts him in the top 100 of horses that raced in 2022 for sure...

I bet Stilleto Boy went from 8/1 to 5/1 in the last flash. I thought being 9.5 he raced well and I get Stilleto Boy isn't that much but he had run some good figs and races earlier in the year. He isn't great and the field was subpar that said Country Grammer ran well IMO

Originally Posted by freddymo

It comes down to what you think of the group he beat yesterday and your thoughts on epicenter. Jack Christopher not finishing the year didn't hurt Taiba's chances. What do you make of Forbidden Kingdom? They did everything they could to ruin Taiba and they didn't. Mandella did everything to make Forbidden Kingdom better and they didn't. Tale of two horses

I thought Forbidden Kingdom ran very well.

Not sure Eclipse voters take field strength into account that much.

Three Grade 1's vs one for Epicenter makes me think Taiba will get the nod.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He isn't great and the field was subpar that said Country Grammer ran well IMO

No disputing he ran well (he won after all), but if you are proposing it was a much better effort than all his previous runner up performances behind better horses (Flightline) and old rivals he's never gotten the best of (Royal Ship), I don't particularly agree.

And if he did run an improved race, what does that mean in the greater scheme of things? I suppose he can win the Big Cap and/or Hollywood Gold Cup (but he likely won't cuz he'll probably go to the middle east).

If you think his Dubai World Cup was some sort of landmark performance, I'm pretty sure most of the also-rans in that race were coming from the middle east's answer to Mahoning Valley...

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I thought Forbidden Kingdom ran very well.

Not sure Eclipse voters take field strength into account that much.

Three Grade 1's vs one for Epicenter makes me think Taiba will get the nod.

You should consider field strength when voting if you take your job seriously.

Epicenter's Travers was the best route run by a 3-year-old in '22

I think Taiba will win as well.

If you are using 106 for Taiba, Forbidden Kingdom did run well. I think FK ran his regular 96/7 and hasn't improved. Taiba hasn't sprinted since his mdn race. I don't think he ran his best sprint fig ever, not when meh fillies ran .24 slower an hour earlier. I have no problem with 106. It is a complex number to come up with as it hard to play it straight vs. the Labrea

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No disputing he ran well (he won after all), but if you are proposing it was a much better effort than all his previous runner up performances behind better horses (Flightline) and old rivals he's never gotten the best of (Royal Ship), I don't particularly agree.

And if he did run an improved race, what does that mean in the greater scheme of things? I suppose he can win the Big Cap and/or Hollywood Gold Cup (but he likely won't cuz he'll probably go to the middle east).

If you think his Dubai World Cup was some sort of landmark performance, I'm pretty sure most of the also-rans in that race were coming from the middle east's answer to Mahoning Valley...

He was engaged throughout the race, albeit against ordinary, for a superior plodder like him, that was a step in the right direction. With a big win in the Kingdom of plenty, he could be the most financially successful grade 1.5 horse of All Time.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Underwhelming performance in an underwhelming field.

Hard ridden throughout, struggled to match strides with the unheralded Straight No Chaser (who by the looks of his stride in the stretch--and subsequent wilt--could use a few months off), and did just enough to keep a bunch of midwest allowance horses and some old Santa Anita Derby also-rans from putting any pressure on him late.

My prediction for the rest of his career:

2nd in the Saudi Cup
last in the San Diego
retired

To be fair, that could be Country Grammer's 2023 campaign, too.

I give Taiba credit for still finishing fairly well after being taken a bit out of his game to chase the quick pace. The race was actually closer to a half a second faster than the La Brea ( if you correctly time the races ) but still, in relative terms, it was a bit underwhelming. Like Freddy, though, I give him a ton of credit for surviving the foolish early handling and think he's better than you do.

I would vote for Epicenter, I intentionally do not have a vote, as 3YO champ but it's fair to say Taiba made more than a reasonable case to win the Eclipse. I wouldn't argue with someone that gave him the award, I just think overall Epicenter deserves it more. It's close.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I give Taiba credit for still finishing fairly well after being taken a bit out of his game to chase the quick pace. The race was actually closer to a half a second faster than the La Brea ( if you correctly time the races ) but still, in relative terms, it was a bit underwhelming. Like Freddy, though, I give him a ton of credit for surviving the foolish early handling and think he's better than you do.

Taiba is a nice horse but he'll never realize his full potential considering what he's been put through. I don't bank on him making more than 3 or 4 starts next year, if that.

I'm not sold on the whole "he's not a sprinter" post-race vibe from his connections; Smith is usually full of BS, it's not like Baffert can't put speed into a horse, and Taiba broke like a shot, dueled a rival into submission, and drew clear in 1:09+ (good for a triple digit BSF) in his belated career debut.

I would vote for Epicenter, I intentionally do not have a vote, as 3YO champ but it's fair to say Taiba made more than a reasonable case to win the Eclipse. I wouldn't argue with someone that gave him the award, I just think overall Epicenter deserves it more. It's close.

If Epicenter retired after the Travers he might actually garner more support; some people might not be drawing a line through his BC Classic.

Still, Epicenter should have absolutely been in the Belmont and could have had the requisite classic win that would easily trump Taiba's manhandling of the overrated Forbidden Kingdom.

[Kasept]

Cyberknife deserves at least some discussion in this. Isn’t he the 3yo champ free and clear if the Dirt Mile goes his way?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Cyberknife deserves at least some discussion in this. Isn’t he the 3yo champ free and clear if the Dirt Mile goes his way?

No. He got drowned by Epicenter and proved inferior to Taiba in their two meetings. The BC Dirt Mile is pretty much an irrelevant race ( even though he ran extremely well ).

He might be third over Modern Games.

Don't worry, Al will still ( eventually ) speak to you if you're honest.

I'd write more on this subject, but I intentionally don't have a further opinion!

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Cyberknife deserves at least some discussion in this. Isn’t he the 3yo champ free and clear if the Dirt Mile goes his way?

I think Cyberknife is a good measuring stick between Taiba and Epicenter.

Taiba lost to Cyberknife, while Epicenter trounced Cyberknife.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I'd write more on this subject, but I intentionally don't have a further opinion!

I would rather read a posted opinion, even if I thought it was silly vs. reading a cryptic post on how I can't read it.