5/6 (CD): Triple Crown Tracker

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve, the point is that once they go to Yakteen, they either go sideways or backward. You believe that if Baffert had them, they would be going sideways or backward, but historically the best dirt trainer in my life continues to improve them thru the spring. That isn't a slight on Yakteen. How many years does Baffert not have at least one that blossoms into a genuine G1 colt? Not often.

Freddy.. These horses were mediocrities at 2 FOR Baffert.. WITH Baffert. The records are right there to be absorbed. They had minor graded placements beaten open lengths by Cave Rock and Practical Move. Stop pretending they were the top juveniles on the West Coast last year. They weren't special to begin with. That's the point.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy.. These horses were mediocrities at 2 FOR Baffert.. WITH Baffert. The records are right there to be absorbed. They had minor graded placements beaten open lengths by Cave Rock and Practical Move. Stop pretending they were the top juveniles on the West Coast last year. They weren't special to begin with. That's the point.

They were mediocrities? Reincarnate ran a 95 Beyer in January. He’s regressed Beyer wise in both starts for Yakteen. Pure speculation but Baffert 3 year olds typically improve from January of their 3 year old year, not take two steps back.

Carmel Road ran an 82 in the summer of his two year old year and was 2nd to Practical Move at Los Al. He was basically eased in the Gotham.

Maybe Fort Bragg isn’t much. I’ll give you that one.

National Treasure ran mid to high 90 Beyers as a 2 year old. Ran the same fig in the SA Derby. As Freddy said, they’re not showing normal improvement that you’d see a 3 year old name under any trainer, and certainly not the kind of improvement you see when Baffert trains.

I didn’t think this was a particularly hot take. You can see these horses are not the same with Yakteen. We’ve seen Yakteen can develop a horse. Why can’t he develop the former Baffert’s? I think it’s a fair question. I’m surprised you don’t.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy.. These horses were mediocrities at 2 FOR Baffert.. WITH Baffert. The records are right there to be absorbed. They had minor graded placements beaten open lengths by Cave Rock and Practical Move. Stop pretending they were the top juveniles on the West Coast last year. They weren't special to begin with. That's the point.

I don't understand your point it seems to discount 30 years of historical evidence.

[King Glorious]

Could part of the answer be that all trainers aren’t equal? Some do great because of the stock they get and some get the stock they get because they are great. I’m not saying either side of the argument is right or wrong because all of you make valid points. But in my mind, any expectation that the horses should perform at or near the same level with Yakteen as with Baffert is underestimating the abilities of Baffert. Or overestimating those of Yakteen. I don’t think with any other top level trainer, would you expect to see their horses improve with a switch to a lesser trainer. And I say Yakteen is lesser with all due respect because he is a more than capable horseman. He’s not Baffert though.

Find it interesting that Forte got a 100 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup, a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and a 95 in the Florida Derby but I don’t hear any talk of regression.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Could part of the answer be that all trainers aren’t equal? Some do great because of the stock they get and some get the stock they get because they are great. I’m not saying either side of the argument is right or wrong because all of you make valid points. But in my mind, any expectation that the horses should perform at or near the same level with Yakteen as with Baffert is underestimating the abilities of Baffert. Or overestimating those of Yakteen. I don’t think with any other top level trainer, would you expect to see their horses improve with a switch to a lesser trainer. And I say Yakteen is lesser with all due respect because he is a more than capable horseman. He’s not Baffert though.

Find it interesting that Forte got a 100 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup, a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and a 95 in the Florida Derby but I don’t hear any talk of regression.

Everyone knows Forte has not run as fast a race as he had in BC. I am not of the opinion he has regressed and he will be a deserved favorite in KD. That said who wants him at 3/1?

[King Glorious]

I think he’s the favorite too and deserving. I was only using his figures to counter against using what some of the Baffert horses earned earlier and saying their lower numbers now are a possible sign of regression.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think he’s the favorite too and deserving. I was only using his figures to counter against using what some of the Baffert horses earned earlier and saying their lower numbers now are a possible sign of regression.

The point is none have improved which is not typical for Baffert stock

[cakes44]

Exclude all Wood horses as always. Include the Japanese horses. Dump all Yakteen horses.

Man, this is easy!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The point is none have improved which is not typical for Baffert stock

I don’t know why any improvement should be automatically expected.