2/23: Oaklawn (Rebel Day; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Clever Again 9-2 WON ($6.00) ~ Steve Asmussen 'Lock of the Week'
Next Best: #7 Doroteo 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Zardun 4-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Shepherd 6-1 2nd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 B Sudd 3-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Great Richie M 8-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Sitka 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 I'm Wide Awake 15-1 3rd


3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ashburn Alley 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Tiffany Twist 12-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Theresasilverlinin 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Brooklyn Drew 15-1 4th


4th: Carousel, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Justique 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Benedetta 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Pistol 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Lady Moscato 7-2 4th


5th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Cornucopian 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #10 Max Got Excited 8-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Zero Sugar 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: # Oy Gevald 9-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 4-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-5 (A), - (B), 10-11 (C)
4: 1-3 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
5: 7 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (10-11 in 3rd)


P4 Grid:

2: 4-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-5 (A), 10-11 (B), - (C)
4: 1-3 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
5: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Lambeth 10-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #8 Harleezy 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Nullify 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Touch of Glam 15-1 8th


7th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Just Steel 7-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Ninja Warrior 9-2 WON ($9.00)
Next Best: #3 Attache 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Invulnerable 5-1 2nd


8th: Trivista, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bru Na Boinne 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #6 Majestic Oops 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Indy Label 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Amber Cascade 7-2 7th


AQUEDUCT 9th (4:35p): NY-Broadway, F&M-4+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Caldwell Loves Gold 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Speightful Lily 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Tough Street 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 My Magic Wand 9-2 6th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

AQ 9: 4-9 (A), 6-11 (B), - (C)
OP 9: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 10: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 11: 3-6 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
OP 12: 1-5-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x5 = 240 x .50 = $120
All A's: 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (AAACA): 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1-5 in OP 11th)


9th: Honeybee (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Quickick 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Muhimma 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Look Forward 6-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Take Charge Milady 9-2 10th


P5 Grid:

5: 7 (A), - (B), 5-10 (C)
6: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-10 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (5-10 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

6: 7-8 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
7: 2-10 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (5-6 in 6th)


10th: Razorback (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Skinner 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Full Screen 15-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Dimatic 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Crupi 6-1 6th


11th: Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Sandman 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Publisher 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Coal Battle 10-1 WON ($25.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Madaket Road 9-2 2nd


12th: AR-MSW, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #9 Tizmarkus 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Butch 30-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Cowboy Cents 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Mayor Gate SCR


P5 Grid:

8: 2-6 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
11: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), 2/SCR-4-8-10-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 2x3x1x2x5 = 60 x .50 = $30 (2-4-8-10-12 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

9: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-5-9 (A), 2/SCR-10 (B), 4-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-8-12 in 12th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[myke]

Steve,

Thanks for the Oaklawn card

[moses]

Good luck Steve.

Curious to see what the odds on #7 Dreaminblue will be. Highest last out Beyer but a huge question mark as to whether he will like two turns and the distance. He was not great in his only previous two turn race. Looks to have some talent and should get a perfect stalking trip behind the speed. Seems to be a different horse since the addition of blinkers. I like his stride and seems like his runner up maiden loss to Innovator was backed up a bit by the Lecomte. If he’s a big number, I’ll probably take a swing.

[Kasept]

OP SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck Steve.

Curious to see what the odds on #7 Dreaminblue will be. Highest last out Beyer but a huge question mark as to whether he will like two turns and the distance. He was not great in his only previous two turn race. Looks to have some talent and should get a perfect stalking trip behind the speed. Seems to be a different horse since the addition of blinkers. I like his stride and seems like his runner up maiden loss to Innovator was backed up a bit by the Lecomte. If he’s a big number, I’ll probably take a swing.

Mose.. I love Randy Morse and was excited when Dreamin broke through. Only concern is the preponderance of speed involved. G/L today!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by myke

Steve,

Thanks for the Oaklawn card

myke.. My pleasure. Enjoyed discussing it this week. Lots of interesting possibilities. Good Luck!

[ADJMK]

Best Value: #3 Clever Again 9-2 ~ Steve Asmussen 'Lock of the Week'

Kept going even with all the weight of DT on his back.
Can't believe he went up to 2-1. not sure who took the late money

[Kasept]

Happy 🐣 Easter