3/1: Gulfstream (FOY Day); Santa Anita (P5, C2C); Aqueduct (Late P5)

[Kasept]

GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 La Neige 9-2: Randomized half sis.. 7th
Next Best: #6 Indy Bay 2-1: Private buy; Experience edge.. WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Clicquot 7-2: Walsh debuter from fast family.. 6th
Super Add: #7 Debt Free 6-1: Klein Not This Time home bred.. 4th


2nd: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rotterdam 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Clever Mischief 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #1 Samburu 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Mount Horab 5-2 3rd


3rd: OC/Cond., 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Speak Easy 8/5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Classify 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Into Pleasure 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Duke of Love 7-2 5th


4th: Herecomesthebride (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Vixen 6/5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #2 Mrs Worldwide 15-1 2nd
Next Best; #6 Civetta 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Ramsey Pond 8-1 6th


5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Echo Lane 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Full Nelson 4-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 J P Hellish 6-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Saratoga Flash 12-1 10th


P5 Grid:

1: 5-6 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
2: 3-4 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
3: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-5 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-5 in 2nd)


P4 Grid:

2: 3-4 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
3: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-5 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Shangrala Road 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Harbe 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Disruptor 8/5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Chillax 5-1 8th


7th: Colonel Liam, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

This may be the most well-matched field of the day. Impossible to separate the top 6-7..

Best Value: #3 Enterdadragon 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Mi Bago 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #4 George Briggs 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Emergence 8-1 8th


P5 Grid:

3: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), 3 (B), 9 (C)
7: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (9 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

4: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), 3 (B), 9 (C)
7: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x3x1x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AACA): 3x3x1x2 = 18 x .50 = $9 (9 in 6th)


8th: Davona Dale (G2), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 La Cara 8/5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Ballerina d'Oro 9/5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Frida 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 The Queens M G 5-2 WON ($5.80)


9th: Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (Rainbow P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Fort Washington 5-2 WON ($13.00)
Best Value: #5 Silent Heart 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Major Dude 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Irish Aces 7-2 4th


10th: The Very One (G3), (P5, $3 Tropical Turf P3, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Immensitude 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 La Mehana 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Beach Bomb 5-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #1 Forever After All 7-2 5th


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

10: 1-4-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x2x2 = 16 x $3 = $48


P5 Grid:

6: 3-4 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
7: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)
8: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 1-4-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 (4-5 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

7: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)
8: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 1-4-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 (4-5 in 9th)


11th: Gulfstream Mile (G2), 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mindframe 1-1 WON ($2.20)
Next Best: #3 Encino 9-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Counterspy 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Steal Sunshine 7-2 2nd


12th: Honey Fox (G3), F&M-4+, 1m-T (Coast to Coast P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tax Implications 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Special Wan 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #3 Cairo Consort 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Poolside With Slim 8-1 3rd


Coast to Coast P5 Grid (5:07pm ET):

GP 12: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
GP 13: 1-3 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
GP 14: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 9: 7 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
SA 10: 1-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x2x4 = $128
All A's: 2x2x2x1x2 = $16


[B]13th: Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)[/b]

Most Likely: #1 Gate to Wire 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Burnham Square 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Neoequos 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 River Thames 2-1 2nd


14th: Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 11f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Sugoi 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Cash Equity 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Missed the Cut 9-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Anglophile 8-1 5th


P5 Grid:

10: 1-4-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 1-3 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
14: 5-8 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 4x1x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

11: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 1-3-6-7 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
14: 5-8 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x6x4 = $48
All A's: 1x2x4x2 = $16



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Ball Don't Lie 7-2 5th
Next Best: #11 Momad 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Scatify 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #6 Tessuto 5-1 8th


7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Andiamo Ragazza 5-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Miss Mandalay 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Thermal 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Ang N Ash 12-1 WON ($25.00)


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

7: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x2x3 = 18 x $3 = $54


8th: San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rodriguez 9/5: Longer-priced Baffert has benefit of 2-turn experience.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Barnes 1-1: First route try and may be too talented for stablemate.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Journalism 7-2: Los Al Futurity winner just starting campaign.. WON ($8.20)


9th: Kilroe Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Almendares needs some pace help, but if he's ready to run back to his DMR mile or City of Hope efforts, he's the horse you want at the overlaid number..

Best Value: #7 ALMENDARES 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Air Force Red 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Mi Hermano Ramon 8/5 5th
Super Add: #4 Formidable Man 6-1 WON ($12.20)


10th: Santa Anita Handicap (G1), 4+, 10f ($5 Late DD)

Locked is the horse to beat, but 10f is a new challenge and note Pletcher 2/23 adding blinkers in graded stakes (0/8 in G1's with 4 board hits); Hit Show a viable alternative at 5-2 with Prat a bonus; Time may be right for Mirahmadi, but he's been hyper in the mornings and he'll need to wire this to win; Express Train won this in '22 (5/1-1-1 at 10f and lone classic trip winner in the field), is 3rd off the layoff and last put him right in line with the 2 favorites. And besides, rooting for Shirreffs to shove it up the ass of the arm chair keyboard trainers who think it's fashionable to ridicule a legendary horseman..

Most Likely: #3 Hit Show 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Express Train 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Locked 3/2 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Mirahmadi 6-1 8th


11th: OC/N1X, 4+, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Phosphorescence 8-1 WON ($15.80)
Best Value: #5 Zalamo 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Coalinga Road 3-1 9th
Super Add: #11 British Isles 9-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 5-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-2 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-7 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Stymie, 4+, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Yo Daddy 4-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Bank Frenzy 2-1 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #7 Worcester 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Coastal Mission 3-1 3rd


7th: Busher, 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Drexel Hill 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #1 Liam in the Dust 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Sharp Smile 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Volleyballprincess 8-1 3rd


8th: Gotham (G3), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Flood Zone 12-1 WON ($37.60)
Next Best: #5 Sand Devil 9/5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Calling Card 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Normandy Coast 15-1 9th


9th: NY-OC/N2X, 4+, 1M (DD)

Best Value: #4 Land d'Oro 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Quick to Accuse 2-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #1a Hagrid's Flame 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Lotsa Trouble 10-1 4th


10th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6f

Most Likely: #9 Share the Ludt 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Dio Romano 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Merica's Back 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Vekinda 5-2 WON ($4.40)


P5 Grid:

6: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 9-12 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x1x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-8 in 6th)
Backup (ACAAA): 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1 in 7th)

$0.50 LATE PICK 5 (5/3/7/8/1,4) Paid $2,297.75


P4 Grid:

7: 1-3 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 9-12 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4-9 in 7th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (3/7/8/1,4) Paid $217.25


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

GP SCR/CHG'S

SA SCR/CHG'S

[fantini33]

I think Paros has a big shot for Maker in the Canadian. The price discrepancy between him and Irish Aces doesn't make a lot of sense. A couple back he held that one off easily in deep stretch at Keeneland. Now off one poor performance he is an also ran in here?? My Timeform notes tell a different story. He made a big ill advised middle move into a fast pace. I get what Gallardo was thinking. I think. He found himself further off than intended because off the pace and misjudged how fast they were actually going. The RED midrace pace figure tells me what I need to know. Closer to the pace today and at minimally 12 to 1 I'm all in. Best of luck!

[casp0555]

Mi Bago = greased lightning

[theguarantee]

Have an off the wall opinion in the Honey Fox today...Ready for Shirl...Although she got quite the setup I still think her debut portended some really good things to come. This family seems to always run better on turf than synth and I liked the gritty win in her third start at Woodbine. Something clearly went wrong next out and I wonder if she needed the break. The last two on synth might be hiding a move forward in particular the prep for this...where I didn't think she looked comfortable but again showed some class/grit. Probably still a stretch but I think she steps forward and runs big today at a huge number.

Good luck everyone

[Kasept]

Happy Phucking Easter.

[ninetoone]

Flood Zone

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Happy Phucking Easter.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Happy Phucking Easter.

Listened to several podcasts (along with ATR of course)...don't believe anyone else even mentioned him...awesome call again Steve, hope you did well there.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Happy Phucking Easter.

nice one Mr. Byk

[casp0555]

Take a little shot at Roman's Hard Spun, bred for longer, may jump up and surprise, first finish line
FOY
$20 win 8

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Take a little shot at Roman's Hard Spun, bred for longer, may jump up and surprise, first finish line
FOY
$20 win 8

yep....but dam the turn of foot of Sovereignty, hope that boy stays healthy

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by casp0555

nice one Mr. Byk

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Listened to several podcasts (along with ATR of course)...don't believe anyone else even mentioned him...awesome call again Steve, hope you did well there.

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Flood Zone

THX guys..

That was perfect. I had an interest in the horse anyway, but if you listened to ATR you know that my Thursday conversation with Victor Barboza about Flood Zone was the clincher. Was an easy read to see that he really hated losing him to Wathnan and Cox. At the same time he was happy for the owner who he said would spend the money on new stock this spring.

The P5/P4 was nice too with the $12.00 on Drexel Hill a bonus considering I singled her in the big play.

Really fun day all around. Makes doing the work feel worthwhile. Hope many benefited!