The Donn This Saturday

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

WTF! Sunshine millions? what did i do? are you confusing me with someone else?

They won't need to gut him to win, that's my point. he can win this in a hand ride and pride is important. You think they want as a tune-up to the DWC to not be able to beat Strong Contender?

we'll see. any horse can lose but i'm not betting that Invasor loses against these. plenty of other races to have an opinion on.

I PMed you asking you if I you wanted to have an all day PARTY at Trackside, From Gulfstream to CAL-Expo. NO RESPONSE......

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.

Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.

OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

You're underestimating the payoffs.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're underestimating the payoffs.

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

but the point is that i think most of this is moot, because you're relying on the horse of the year -- coming off a win off a huge layoff, losing against a decidedly grade II field, off a layoff again?

i won't be betting tomorrow because i'll be at work, but you can believe that i'd be crafting every single play around invasor tomorrow.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Scav

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

Your right, it might pay about 6/1 or $6 per every $1, the Bern example is skewed because the fields were less

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

Do you really believe that Nobiz will be the same price as Scat Daddy? Certainly most will cover SD in the multi-race wagers, but as far as the Holy Bull goes...shouldn't Nobiz be a big favorite given all his hype?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

but the point is that i think most of this is moot, because you're relying on the horse of the year -- coming off a win off a huge layoff, losing against a decidedly grade II field, off a layoff again?

i won't be betting tomorrow because i'll be at work, but you can believe that i'd be crafting every single play around invasor tomorrow.

It's sort of two different discussions....opinions on the races versus creating value.

I agree with Scav that if you like Strong Contender you are better off playing the Pick-3 using both NoBiz and Scat Daddy and then some weighted spread in the turf race as he mathematically rates to be a better price in the Pick-3 if for no other reason than the dispersed takeout.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Do you really believe that Nobiz will be the same price as Scat Daddy? Certainly most will cover SD in the multi-race wagers, but as far as the Holy Bull goes...shouldn't Nobiz be a big favorite given all his hype?

It's close. It's a virtual match race.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's close. It's a virtual match race.

ok now when you say that are you talking about the RACE or the betting on the race?

because I find it to be decidedly one-sided....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

Drums of Thunder took advantage of an extremely contentious pace involving distance challenged weaksters that totally collapsed. He's impossible in this spot. Bold Start is much more likely to fill out the exacta if one of the favorites falters.

Honestly, I don't get Drums of Thunder at all.

[Scav]

No-Biz is another horse you can't really unload on in exotics becuase that race means little to him. He already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby, the main goal, and Tagg is going to be progressive with him.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

ok now when you say that are you talking about the RACE or the betting on the race?

because I find it to be decidedly one-sided....

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

[tycharles01]

Its gonna be a easy Pik 3 1 Deep in ALL

Scat Daddy wont come close to winning the Derby however this is a Mile race and he is pretty much a mile to 1/16 horse

Naissance Royale just towers over the field

Invasor is far and away the best Chatain will give a good run to a mile and then die (Guys keep forgetting that he beat Sir Greeley in the mile, if he had to go any farther Sir Greeley would have beat him and this race is 1/8 farther)

Scat/Royale/Invasor

JUST HAMMER IT HARD

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

fair, but i still think it's his race tomorrow. i'll eat crow tomorrow if it comes to that, i don't see either big favorite getting beat, him or invasor

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

No-Biz is another horse you can't really unload on in exotics becuase that race means little to him. He already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby, the main goal, and Tagg is going to be progressive with him.....

here I agree with you. while no biz I feel is the better horse and stronger derby contender, tomorrow is not a make or break day. they'll be happy if he just keeps moving forward. can't go all in on him although there aren't many other alternatives beside SD.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

fair, but i still think it's his race tomorrow. i'll eat crow tomorrow if it comes to that, i don't see either big favorite getting beat, him or invasor

I'm talking about trying to make money playing the horses, and there are times to take a stand and times not to, and if you play multi-race wagers you are foolish to stand alone. Maybe you want to go 60-40 ( though I will split it down the middle ) but you will not make money in this game singling when two gets it done. That I promise you.