5/1: Churchill Downs (1st-13th; $154k C/O)

[Kasept]

Tough start to the Oaks-Derby Weekend Friday as largely poor results were punctuated by excruciating photo loss of Evening Jewel to Blind Luck. As suggested, the preliminary action Friday looks like it will turn out to be the more pleasant of the two days despite the slight improvement in the Saturday forecast. Rain began overnight and is driving down at this hour, with at least an 1" expected in the morning before a window of opportunity opens for the afternoon. Expected turf no better than yielding and a main track no better than good.

On the ovals yesterday, the second race back for Rachel Alexandra ended similarly to her New Orleans effort, a slightly better than it looked loss to a good but rather ordinary stakes runner in Bill Mott's Unrivaled Belle. The 2009 Horse of the Year was again not allowed to run the free rein race that made her so dominant and spectacular last year as Calvin Borel chose to rate her off the common Be Fair.

Rachel and the Vegso-Seidler homebred both received solid 103 Beyers for the race, a fig that was better than the boys in the Alysheba 90 minutes later (Arson Squad 101). The fact that Jess Jackson's Medaglia d'Oro filly had every opportunity to fend off the winner and seemed to produce just modest resistance is the fact that is most disheartening in the attempt to get her back to last year's level of excellence. Whether Rachel Alexandra's competitive fire has simply ebbed after the extended period of inactivity or Steve Asmussen's training and racing strategy for her is simply lacking, the filly is just not as good right now as she was in 2009.

The reaction by Jackson to the loss was very encouraging however, as he told the media he is not retiring the champion filly based on her two races so far this year. I'm not sure what Asmussen will do differently next, but I wish he would allow Borel to let the filly loose to run the way she prefers. She may not be the same runner she was in 2009, but attempts to rate her through the first half of her runs isn't working.

The early win wagering for Derby is bizarre, and I cannot fathom that they will be as strangely distributed at post time as they were after the first $600k was recorded.

DERBY ODDS THROUGH FRIDAY

1 Lookin At Lucky 9
2 Ice Box 11
3 Noble's Promise 21
4 Super Saver 7
5 Line of David 14
6 Stately Victor 16
7 American Lion 24
8 Dean's Kitten 18
9 Make Music for Me 25
10 Paddy O'Prado 11
11 Devil May Care 10
12 Conveyance 25
13 Jackson Bend 21
14 Mission Impazible 24
15 Discreetly Mine 40
16 Awesome Act 14
17 Dublin 21
18 Backtalk 21
19 Homeboykris 17
20 Sidney's Candy 11

Was a record breaking day at the Downs Friday with 115k in the big plant, which should offset slightly what may turn out to be a very difficult day there Saturday thanks to the weather. Belmont opener was a hit as well with 6,000+ at Elmont and a big handle. $150k+ carryover at Churchill, the near $500k mandatory payout at Beulah and $25k carry at Belmont today! Hope you did OK Friday and that today works out all right. Enjoy Derby Day! Full recap of the weekend Monday on ATR..


CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Stay Put 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Rock Hard 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Broken Tango 4-1 5th
Super Add: #5 SCR


2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bold Victory 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 My Piano Man 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Spicer 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 L. C. Daytona 12-1 6th


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

SELECTED WITH EXPECTATION OF BEING OFF THE TURF...

Best Value: #11 Sheryl's Melody 10-1 WON
Next Best: #14 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Heart Union 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 SCR


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #9 Don't Put It Back 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 New Pais 5-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Good Lord 5-1 3rd


5th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T

SELECTED WITH EXPECTATION OF BEING OFF THE TURF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WHOLESALE SCRATCHES...

Most Likely: #12 Anarko 6th
Next Best: #1 Southern Exchange 5th
Exotics Use: #5 On My Dime 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-6-7
3: 5/SCR-7-11-14/SCR
4: 1/SCR-9
5: 1-5-12

4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: 55th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hot Dixie Chick 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Buckleupbuttercup 8-1 WON
Exotics Use: #4 Decelerator 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Sister Resistor 12-1 5th


7th: 25th CD Turf Mile (G2), 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Fantasia 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Tizaqueena 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Diamondrella 8-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Miss Keller 10-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-9
5: 1-5-12
6: 1-2-4-5
7: 1-3-5-7

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


8th: 24th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Warbling 8-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Pretty Prolific 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Cassidy's Pride 12-1 7th


9th: 76th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Warrior's Reward 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Wall Street Wonder 12-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Musket Man 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Country Day 15-1 9th


10th: 24th Woodford Reserve (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Blues Street 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Loup Breton 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Court Vision 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Wise River 15-1 8th


11th: 136th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

As crazy a Derby situation as anyone in Louisville can recall. I think the Dale Romans colt is by far the best horse to key off of, but cannot blame anyone for any approach they take to race that became chaotic when Eskendereya vacated the favorite's mantle... Good luck and enjoy the game's most wonderful event..

Most Likely: #10 PADDY O'PRADO (20-1): Romans' grey has done everything right, is dead fit for 10 panels and relishes it wet.. 3rd
Next Best: #20 Sidney's Candy (5-1): Outpost may not spell doom for speedy Candy Ride who can sit the Evening Jewel Oaks trip.. 17th
Exotics Use: #2 Ice Box (10-1): Zito's FL Derby winner was endlessly energetic the last 2 weeks and should get meltdown scenario.. 2nd
Super Add: #11 Devil May Care (10-1): Filly moves into picture on basis of last Saturday's stunning slop workout.. 10th
High 5 Play: #6 Stately Victor (30-1): Visual impression of Blue Grass win lingers; Handsome colt will like mud, trip and pace set-up.. 8th


<$200 P6 Play:

Given weather, there are far too many unknowns going into this card too invest wildly in this P6..

6: 2
7: 3-5
8: 2-3-6
9: 3-7
10: 3-7-8
11: 10

1x2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x $2 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-6-7-9
9: 3-7
10: 3-7-8
11: 2-6-10-11-20

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Thunder Jack 8-1 9th
#11 E Z's Gentleman 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #8 Handleman 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 SCR


13th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Moe Man 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Irish Emperor 15-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Galientos 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Imperial Pride 9-2 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

10: 3-7-8
11: 2-6-10-11-20
12: 2-5-8-9-10-11
13: 3

3x5x6x1 = 90 x .50 = $45


Good luck!
Steve

Good luck today, Steve.

I listened to the show yesterday and the Oaks result was just horrible.

[wild barry]

off turf races 3 and 5. track sloppy and yielding turf course. changes at churchill web site. good luck to all.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Good luck today, Steve.

I listened to the show yesterday and the Oaks result was just horrible.

Thx Coach. Appreciate it. You can imagine how Cassidy and the connections feel. G/L today.

[goodcopy]

No ones brought up the fact that there is no Goldolphin or Euoro's based horses this year !
I think that is a shame and would like to see more international partisapation.
With that said and with the rain pounding the track I am going to take a shot with American Lion and a good "Tomlimson #" to win at 25-1

[AeWingnut]

hopefully everyone is going to try and rate while Paddy O'Prado just rolls

main concern for P O' P is Conveyance - strange

Bob Baffert has the top two choices and they are both above their M/L odds and Paddy O'Prado is well below his

[hockey2315]

Paddy O'Prado shouldn't be on the lead and you shouldn't want him to be.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by goodcopy

No ones brought up the fact that there is no Goldolphin or Euoro's based horses this year !
I think that is a shame and would like to see more international partisapation.
With that said and with the rain pounding the track I am going to take a shot with American Lion and a good "Tomlimson #" to win at 25-1

yes, we need all the toss outs we can get in a 20 horse field

[XIIPointStables]

Notcied the NOAA's official forecast is now calling for .75" to an inch of rain, not the 1-2+ predicted.

I've got to stick with Looking at Lucky at anything near 4-1. We'll see how the track plays before deciding who to play under. I'm a sucker for exactas.

Good luck all.

[Borntorun]

Just heard on HRTV that Sadler may scratch Line of David. I have him with others in the Oaks/Derby Double and Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3. If he does scratch, do you know if the bet transfers to the favorite or if there is a consolation payout? Thanks Steve.

[dagolfer33]

Steve, thanks for including Paddy O' Prado in your selections. I threw him in @ the last minute and was fortunate to hit the tri. Thanks !!!!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

Steve, thanks for including Paddy O' Prado in your selections. I threw him in @ the last minute and was fortunate to hit the tri. Thanks !!!!!

Thx and you're more than welcome. Tri was nice. I didn't exactly 'include' him though... he was my key in every which way. I'm not disappointed. He ran a very nice race. Desormeaux told me he might have have won the thing had he found a seam at the quarter pole. The horses that looked best the 2 weeks leading up pretty much ran the best and other than those that had fiasco voyages like Lucky, were the top 3 finishers.