Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

You are nuts if you think that Ice Box actually benefited from getting stopped, that is the silliest argument of all.

But he did. And you're not at the level where you can understand why. Ice Box got the best trip in the race relative to the setup. The chart clearly shows this. If he's allowed a clear run he fizzles out (relative to the winner) like the other closers.

The only one here who is able to understand this is (possibly/probably) Serling.

And NP COLLAPSED the race. Absolutely no doubt about that.

[Scav]

First off, Noble's Promise ran 100 times better then I thought he would, for him to finish 5th is amazing to me.

Second off, I can't believe fatman just said Icebox benefited from being stopped in the race. He wonders why he gets crucified?

[slotdirt]

Scav, go down to your local velodrome or park with your bike. Get in a draft with a bunch of guys going 25 miles per hour. I know it's only bike racing, but if you have to check when you're in a pack, it's easy to re-rally and keep up with the riders you're with because of the aerodynamics of the draft. Ice Box just used the Shake and Bake.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But he did. And you're not at the level where you can understand why. Ice Box got the best trip in the race relative to the setup. The chart clearly shows this. If he's allowed a clear run he fizzles out (relative to the winner) like the other closers.

The only one here who is able to understand this is (possibly/probably) Serling.

And NP COLLAPSED the race. Absolutely no doubt about that.

You're out of your f*cking mind trying to rationalize why your interpretation was once again wrong. No big deal- TAM opens in 6 months. Plenty of time to analyze.

And your boy said this right after the race.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...99&postcount=2

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

You're out of your f*cking mind.

And your boy said this right after the race.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...99&postcount=2

That's fine. He has trouble with that trip as well.

[blackthroatedwind]

Whether he's absolutely right or wrong, why make fun of someone who well may understand race dynamics better than you?

It's hard to argue against the notion that Noble's Promise collapsed the race. It was a poor ride ( there's a shock given the rider ) but it was probably somewhat irrelevent, as he wasn't getting the distance effectively anyway.

It's not all so simple.

[slotdirt]

I'm not suggesting for a second that the Fat Man doesn't understand race dynamics better than I do, but he surely has an interesting way of trying to explain his vantage point to others.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Whether he's absolutely right or wrong, why make fun of someone who well may understand race dynamics better than you?

It's hard to argue against the notion that Noble's Promise collapsed the race. It was a poor ride ( there's a shock given the rider ) but it was probably somewhat irrelevent, as he wasn't getting the distance effectively anyway.

It's not all so simple.

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

[asudevil]

Regardless of the final trip analysis , I was sick with the finish. I bet Ice Box at 85/1 at Wynn Las Vegas in February. I have to give Haksin credit for that play. After the Fountain of Youth, he was on ATR and said that IB had a wide trip, but finished well despite being 5th. Both he and Byk also loved the horse's apperance back then.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Scav, go down to your local velodrome or park with your bike. Get in a draft with a bunch of guys going 25 miles per hour. I know it's only bike racing, but if you have to check when you're in a pack, it's easy to re-rally and keep up with the riders you're with because of the aerodynamics of the draft. Ice Box just used the Shake and Bake.

I didn't even know what a velodrome was until I looked it up the other day.

I gotta be honest too, I like reading The Fat Man's posts, there are tidbits that really are worth using towards your handicapping.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

[philcski]

I'm driving down the left lane of a three lane highway going 40 mph with a car in front of me that I'm drafting in behind. There is someone in the right lane next to me going the exact same speed. The car in front of me stops to turn; I slow down to 30 MPH for two seconds and swerve into the center lane and re-accelerate to 40 MPH. Clearly, I am able to benefit from this as I spent less energy over the previous quarter mile because I drafted behind, despite giving up 29 feet of distance to the guy in the right lane in that two second period.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

Phil

Take a deep breath. Consider for a moment that whether Ice Box ran well or not really meant nothing to me, as I went into the race with doubles to SC and NP. So, when NP fell apart, it didn't matter to me. If I thought the horse ran well after the fact, I'd certainly comment to that effect. But I wouldn't want anything that closed out of this race and I certainly wouldn't want the one that last moved the last movers.

Now, if you take a look at the chart for the race, you'll note that the 3rd last, last, last horse at the 1st 3 calls, ran together from the 3rd to the 4th call, where that made significant gains. At that point, while LaL and MMFM continue on making a slight gain, IB is going sideways. Clearly, he's expending energy while doing so but he's not expending the same amount as the other two. In other words, he gets a BREAK in his run and the chart shows that while the other 2 are gaining, he's losing ground to the winner. (this is between the mile and the stretch call). The stretch call to the wire, LAL backs up, MMFE makes/continues a nominal gain and IB comes on, gaining significantly. So, NP collapses the race, having 1st SS bid, then a whole wave of horses that included PoP (all of which fizzled out except PoP), and, finally, the 3 horses from the rear. So, not only did IB have the benefit of making the last run in the race but he was even able to last move the last movers, as a result of getting a break in the stretch. This horse has no shot in a race where he actually has to do any running on its own. I realize it's hard to grasp what I'm writing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

Yeah- like telling others they're morons or "not at that level" and operating at a level of hubris approaching that of Napoleon.

[slotdirt]

Has anybody really ever tried to quantify how much "drafting" actually helps or hurts a horse in so far as racing goes? I understand the concept in car racing and cycling, but never heard anybody aside from TFM really espouse its impact on the running of a horse race. I'm just not sure the dynamics of a horse race are similar enough to, say, a 150 mile stage of the Tour de France or the Aaron's 499 at Talladega, to warrant the comparison.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

Andy

It's common knowledge that I respect you more that just about any trip handicapper out there. Consider what I'm offering here. This is very similar to your misread of the Al Khali trip in that race won by Courageous Cat. Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage --- especially in cases of sustained runs like this one. This was a flow race and IB was riding the gulf stream.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah- like telling others they're morons or "not at that level" and operating at a level of hubris approaching that of Napoleon.

We've established that he's abrasive and obnoxious....should I get a Thesaurus and find some more words in order to continue to post in this manner?

He still has something to say.....at least this time.

Your car analogy was bad. I'm not saying I wholly agree with him....but you can do better than that.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

"I was comfortable and moving nicely. The 10 horse (Paddy O’Prado) kind of stopped in front of me, then I gained the lead and he responded nicely for me. The rest was all (Calvin) Borel. He had the horse. Obviously distance is going to be the question with this horse. He’ll be a top 3-year-old and I’m sure (trainer) Kenny (McPeek) will spot him around correctly."-WILLIE MARTINEZ

Fat Boy has a confidently-condescending style (a popular choice,) but all the facts point away from his conclusions about the horse's ability to get 10f.

I'll tell you this much, Doofus:

I'm a much better trip handicapper than Willie Martinez is a jock. You're a bigger clown that I thought if you actually take what any jock has to say after the race as being remotely representative --- especially a jock with obvious premature tendencies. Then again, as mentioned, the connections are clueless as to how much money that idiot has cost them, so why would I expect others to comprehend this.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Andy

It's common knowledge that I respect you more that just about any trip handicapper out there. Consider what I'm offering here. This is very similar to your misread of the Al Khali trip in that race won by Courageous Cat. Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage --- especially in cases of sustained runs like this one. This was a flow race and IB was riding the gulf stream.

I understand.

I still think Ice Box ran a winning race, in the sense that if things had gone as well for him as they did for the first and third finishers he would have won.

The bigger question is, then, who actually ran the best race. And, this means for ten furlongs. The problem is, it may not be particularly relevent in the future, due to how unusual this race was.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'll tell you this much, Doofus:

I'm a much better trip handicapper than Willie Martinez is a jock. You're a bigger clown that I thought if you actually take what any jock has to say after the race as being remotely representative --- especially a jock with obvious premature tendencies. Then again, as mentioned, the connections are clueless as to how much money that idiot has cost them, so why would I expect others to comprehend this.

You lose any shred of credibility when you even quote him....much less respond.

Please, one outburst at a time.