Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

Sure, I'll bet $1 against $10 that Ball Four finishes ahead of him. Ball Four doesn't stand a chance in hell in winning the Clark but he certainly has better than a 1 in 10 shot of finishing ahead of Premium Tap.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.
Horses don't tend to just jump up huge on a particular dirt surface.
More importantly, while some horses will run a length or two faster at a particular track, its a much more subtle improvement and even more importantly how many horses do you see who win at say Belmont and run 90 Beyers who go to Aqueduct and run 60's or 70's? I can count those I've seen in my life on two hands, maybe one hand.
We all know about John's Call and Fourstardave loving the Spa, buts thats two horses in 20 years, and its not like they never won elsewhere.
Its not about whos moving up on it, its about how many move way down on it. Simple logic when looking at figs tells me that so many just flat out cant run on it.
Lawyer Ron couldnt get within double digits on it, lol. Lemons Forever ran 4th in a cheap stakes race on the stuff and all she did was come back and win the Ky oaks. They just wouldn't put out on it, to name just two of many.

[blackthroatedwind]

Hey, I'm reticent to bet Polytrack, but using an example of a 2YO filly winning a weak race where nobody had run many races is hardly strong.

I did handicap the other stakes thoroughly and the sprint winner was hardly impossible, the race was wide open, and the two supposedly good Polytrack horses did nothing. I preferred the second horse and had Desormeaux not butchered him, check out that ride, he would have won. The Distaff race was won by a hard horse but only because of the distance and I have a hard time buying Polytrack caused a horse to win at 1 1/16th that appears to barely want 7F. It's not as though she was carried along on the front end. Her numbers were easily good enough to win it was really just a distance question. The second finisher, La Reason, was to me the most logical horse and she performed pretty much the same on polytrack as she does on dirt ( i.e. once again not quite good enough to win ). The 2YO colt race was a total crapshoot and the winner exited a prep where an argument could have been made that he performed best that day and only Saturday's post hindered him. In other words there was really no particularly logical result in that race.

What I'm basically saying is that in order to dismiss polytrack as unplayable, and believe me I'm as skeptical as anyone, we should at least watch this Keeneland meet seriously. And I don't want to hear any of that " oh, God, there's a 7500 claimer in the second race on opening day! " because I would bet a lot of money they are using pretty much the same book they use every year. This is Keeneland in the Fall, not the Spring, and yes they run claimers at Keeneland all the time....even cheap ones. Let's keep our eye on the ball and certainly not use polytrack as yet another reason we just can't win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.

Come on, he caught the goldest of gold rails that day.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Come on, he caught the goldest of gold rails that day.

Yes he did, he caught a conveyor belt. But it was indeed a good field. and yes I realize that Sun King wasn't fully cranked that day.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.
Horses don't tend to just jump up huge on a particular dirt surface.
More importantly, while some horses will run a length or two faster at a particular track, its a much more subtle improvement and even more importantly how many horses do you see who win at say Belmont and run 90 Beyers who go to Aqueduct and run 60's or 70's? I can count those I've seen in my life on two hands, maybe one hand.
We all know about John's Call and Fourstardave loving the Spa, buts thats two horses in 20 years, and its not like they never won elsewhere.
Its not about whos moving up on it, its about how many move way down on it. Simple logic when looking at figs tells me that so many just flat out cant run on it.
Lawyer Ron couldnt get within double digits on it, lol. Lemons Forever ran 4th in a cheap stakes race on the stuff and all she did was come back and win the Ky oaks. They just wouldn't put out on it, to name just two of many.

Very good points, especially the highlighted....I guess I'm more optimistic about it because of the benefits to the physical being of the horse. I do like the challenge it brings in capping also, I'm a small better, so the bigger prices is a huge bonus.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Very good points, especially the highlighted....I guess I'm more optimistic about it because of the benefits to the physical being of the horse. I do like the challenge it brings in capping also, I'm a small better, so the bigger prices is a huge bonus.

No question that for one dollar spread out players in gimmicks like pik-3's and tri's that you might be able to get lucky and catch a big one.
But for guys who like to make larger win bets or exactas, you'd have to be insane to make a 200 straight exacta on this stuff. May as well just drop it in the Salvation Army bucket on the way in and turn around and go home and save the admission cost.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!

And Ball Four had won at the distance on the track coming off a similar layoff in the spring. Like Skimming loved Del Mar and Silver Train loves Belmont, Ball Four loves Turfway. Yes, I picked Ball Four as a likely winner, had him in the Public Handicapper contest. Local specialists have beaten big name shippers in the past, you know.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

His paycheck was fourth place money....say what you will, he ran fourth...I agree he got a bad ride but thats racing...who knows what would have happened had he gotten through (I thought there was a hole for him and he chickened out to be honest with you and it close through ggod race riding)...yes, he lost a few lengths but I'm not going to annoint ANY horse in the winner's circle on Polytrack just because I thought they had a bad ride and MAY have been best.....who knows, I've seen MANY big middle moves or blow-ups on the far turn on that surface where you are just sure a horse is going to win and then they flatten out....that surface is too hard to figure out for anybody to come on here and say that Premium Tap was the winner with a clean trip...maybe on dirt, but not that crap...I really believe that..

..Oh, and its not like hes a world beater and we can make a case that he was POUNDS the best because he wasn't pounds the best coming in....he barely beat Second of June last out for Gods sake...

Again, thye point is that Poltrack ruins the stakes program at tracks because shippers are at a HUGE disadvantage.....check out all of the stakes run last weekend and the Lane's End result earlier this year.....I've never seen so many longshots win in my life, and likewise I've nevere seen so many horses run horrible who had great dirt form coming in.....

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...

I arrived at the number from reading the minutes of their meetings. I also arrived at that number based on conversations from Turfway Executives that sit on the Keeneland board. I didnt just randomly throw out a number. Keeneland has very very lofty expectations for this fall meet.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Their handle goes way down, no way does it go up. And oh, ummm, how did Turfway end up this past meet. A certain liar on this board was talking about how much they were gonna be up, etc. Guys an exposed liar.

Dont know how Turfway ended up, they dont have the final numbers. And how can someone who makes a prediction be a liar!!!. A prediction is a guess--that person was just wrong.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

The bottomline is that its not a 'dirt alternative'...its Polytrack...not dirt or even close to dirt other than its tan in color....it might as well be called a 'turf alternative' too....

Its not dirt...its not turf...it is rubber and it is very soft and cushiony....imagine runnnig on the road, and then running on the grass....and now imagine running on a bed mattress....it is DIFFERENT....different horses with different bulids get over it just like turf horses are bred to handle the grass with their big, dish feet and high action to easily pick their feet up out of the tall grass...

It is all BIOMECHANICS.....good dirt horses usually like a 'fast' surface - like a road....when you have that much bounce and cushion in the Poltrack it changes the entire feel for the horse and the entire way a horse has to adjust his echanics to compensate for the spring and cushion in the track....

Think about it for a second......MANY Throughbreds that are great dirt actors love to 'hear their feet rattle' - to use an old expression.....this stuff is too boyant and bouncy....Believe me, I collected about 5 pounds of it when was at Turfway earlier this year and I walked over the track for a half a mile studying it....it is NOT a dirt alternative...no way, no how...

Mark my words when I tell you that if this track is instituted everywhere, it will change the way we breed horses today....Horses like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat would NOT be leading sires on this surface....they pass on breeding to be superior on dirt, not rubber....who knows, horse like Lemon Drop Kid could be the next great stallion if he passes down the mechanics to his progeny to be top class on the rubber.....

It is VERY discouraging for a traditionalist in this sport because I understand the deeper effects that it will have on our game and IT WILL CHANGE THE BREED...I, for one, don't like the fact that we are essentially inventing a new surface which will invent a new way to breed horses and change the roots of our successful and classical bloodlines going forward...

[Five Star Derek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Derek, I know a lotta players. Guys who really send it in, whales so to speak. None of em I know wants to touch betting this stuff.
I love to play, really love to. So when I say I won't play a particular surface its a bold statement.
I know that Turfway's everyday cards are very cheap and not good to make comparisons on. But if you look at the three big days they've had there since the stuff was put in last fall, you'll see that none of these horses who won ever came back and did squat, other than High Cotton who is the polytrack poster child(and man thats not saying a whole damn lot).
With A City couldn't beat me across the street and he won a biggie.
Check out the winners on Ky Cup day in the 5 stakes in 2005, then check out Lanes End day earlier this year, the winners have never replicated any dirt form ever afterwards. Then the other day was just a disgrace. Flint's filly couldn't go 5f and she airs going two turns. Anyone wanan take bets on how Reigning Court comes back in stakes races on dirt? Etc.
The problem with this stuff is that regardless of what anyone tells you its a dirt replacement surface. Anyone who tries to tell its not is smoking something pretty strong. Until a track decides to have both Poly and Dirt, instead of replacing dirt with poly, it most definitely is a dirt replacement surface.
I watch races like a hawk, I have to, and I know what I'm seeing.
When this stuff first was put in place I WANTED to like it and find edges for handicapping it.
It didn't take long for me to see that unlike dirt(confirmed by the email posted on the other thread by an asst/exercise rider and about 20 folks I've spoken to), that many horses simply hate it and refuse to try.
These bombs who don't figure aren't usually winning because they love it, they are winning because other horses are simply not putting out on it and refuse to try.
I've called Turfway the "parade grounds" since they got this stuff because thats what the races look like. Woodbine has been even worse!!!
You watch these races and they almost never unfold like dirt races with contested paces. They get extremely strung out like a parade, and down the stretch only 1-2 horses are actually moving on it.
It pains me to notbe able to bet a great meet like Keeneland, but there simply isn't any way anyone can bet anything with conviction. You have no idea how they will run on it. Joels theory of only taking 5-1 or better is pretty good, but I'd go so far as to say 10-1. Just look at last Saturday's results in the 5 stakes races on Ky Cup day.
Whats gonna happen is that after this meet, trainers who have run their horses on the stuff who run poorly will simply avoid it like the plague.
I'm all for keeping horses sound and uninjured, no doubt. Anyone whose ever watched training and heard the sickening crack and seen one go down will tell you that you just wanna vomit, for real.
But this past meet at the Spa they ordered the super to have a huge cushion and deeper surface. It worked spendidly and trainers loved it.
Horses are always gonna break down, Johnny V was injured after a grass race, and we all know about Horatio, and about Funfair in the Cup last year.
Its simply unavoidable.
Darrell Vienna in Cali told the DRF reporter that he couldn't understand why they had to install poly. He asked aloud why they coldn't just have a deeper and safer dirt surface.
Thats the very same question that more than one trainer and owner has asked aloud when speaking about it.
I'd like to know why myself, but I already know the answer, theres not as much money in marketing dirt.

You offer very compelling information. I just hope you're wrong. Keeneland is the first track that I follow that has installed Poytrack so I have no basis to go on from a handicapping standpoint. This is distressing to me if this turns out to be true.

Dirt tracks have turned out to be a scapegoat for what I consider poor training. In all facets of life people are looking for that magic pill that will solve all their problems. Some people seem to want to sell Polytrack as such a thing. Your right about being there to see a horse break down on the track. There's nothing to describe the sick feeling you feel inside. Obviously these things happen where it's nothing but misfortunate. I think there are other times where it happens and the trainer is quick to blame the track deflecting attention away from himself. It would be nice to see tracks deepen the surface like you mentioned at the Spa. My concern is that people will push for legislation that states all tracks must have a Polytrack type surface.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Dont know how Turfway ended up, they dont have the final numbers. And how can someone who makes a prediction be a liar!!!. A prediction is a guess--that person was just wrong.

You tell us you have no vested interest in this stuff, yet you consistently shill it. I respect anyone's right to privacy, I really do. But you telling us that you are seeking out Biancone to ask him questions on the backside, reading minutes of a Keeneland meeting, and the funniest was when I caught you(and several people noted it to me in pm's saying good work) telling us how Turfway's handle was up opening day when it hadnt been announced to anyone yet what the handle even was. Your explanation whne I pointed this out was that you had spoken to the mutuel guy about it.
Look, I respect your right to be anonymous and not tell us who you are, but there isn't any way that you don't have some sort of vested interest in Turfway or keeneland or polytrack. NONE!
Do you honestly expect us to believe that Turfway's mutuel guy will just give out info not realeased to the public on handle to anyone.
If I called Turfway now and asked for the mutuel guy to give the meet end stats that havent been realeased yet do you think he would give them to me? How about if RandallScott or PointG called?
You are asking me to believe that you have no connection to Kee/TP/Poly and yet have information on handle and minutes of a meeting that public doesn't get.
Please stop insulting my intelligence ok? and everyone elses. You are shilling for everything they do on here, and attempting to tell us that you have no vested interest and are just a casual fan. Sorry, but a blind man could see thats not the case.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The bottomline is that its not a 'dirt alternative'...its Polytrack...not dirt or even close to dirt other than its tan in color....it might as well be called a 'turf alternative' too....

Its not dirt...its not turf...it is rubber and it is very soft and cushiony....imagine runnnig on the road, and then running on the grass....and now imagine running on a bed mattress....it is DIFFERENT....different horses with different bulids get over it just like turf horses are bred to handle the grass with their big, dish feet and high action to easily pick their feet up out of the tall grass...

It is all BIOMECHANICS.....good dirt horses usually like a 'fast' surface - like a road....when you have that much bounce and cushion in the Poltrack it changes the entire feel for the horse and the entire way a horse has to adjust his echanics to compensate for the spring and cushion in the track....

Think about it for a second......MANY Throughbreds that are great dirt actors love to 'hear their feet rattle' - to use an old expression.....this stuff is too boyant and bouncy....Believe me, I collected about 5 pounds of it when was at Turfway earlier this year and I walked over the track for a half a mile studying it....it is NOT a dirt alternative...no way, no how...

Mark my words when I tell you that if this track is instituted everywhere, it will change the way we breed horses today....Horses like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat would NOT be leading sires on this surface....they pass on breeding to be superior on dirt, not rubber....who knows, horse like Lemon Drop Kid could be the next great stallion if he passes down the mechanics to his progeny to be top class on the rubber.....

It is VERY discouraging for a traditionalist in this sport because I understand the deeper effects that it will have on our game and IT WILL CHANGE THE BREED...I, for one, don't like the fact that we are essentially inventing a new surface which will invent a new way to breed horses and change the roots of our successful and classical bloodlines going forward...

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

Originally Posted by oracle80

You tell us you have no vested interest in this stuff, yet you consistently shill it. I respect anyone's right to privacy, I really do. But you telling us that you are seeking out Biancone to ask him questions on the backside, reading minutes of a Keeneland meeting, and the funniest was when I caught you(and several people noted it to me in pm's saying good work) telling us how Turfway's handle was up opening day when it hadnt been announced to anyone yet what the handle even was. Your explanation whne I pointed this out was that you had spoken to the mutuel guy about it.
Look, I respect your right to be anonymous and not tell us who you are, but there isn't any way that you don't have some sort of vested interest in Turfway or keeneland or polytrack. NONE!
Do you honestly expect us to believe that Turfway's mutuel guy will just give out info not realeased to the public on handle to anyone.
If I called Turfway now and asked for the mutuel guy to give the meet end stats that havent been realeased yet do you think he would give them to me? How about if RandallScott or PointG called?
You are asking me to believe that you have no connection to Kee/TP/Poly and yet have information on handle and minutes of a meeting that public doesn't get.
Please stop insulting my intelligence ok? and everyone elses. You are shilling for everything they do on here, and attempting to tell us that you have no vested interest and are just a casual fan. Sorry, but a blind man could see thats not the case.

Seriously, I have zero vested interest in PolyTrack, Turfway or Keeneland. Just like in any sport you form relationships. Those relationships are based on trust. I just happen to know some people who work for Turfway and Keeneland. I love for my horse to train or the PolyTrack surface, but I dont think she races over the surface very well. She prefers a turf. The reason why I talk to Biacone and his assistant is because his bard is right next to the barn where my horse is stabled at Turfway. We have also talked about soccer, baseball and the weather. It isnt always about PolyTrack.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

The 2yo races were unpredictable because the horses running in them were lightly raced and most were trying a new distance, and around two turns, for the first time. The most fancied runners in the filly and mare race (Prospective Saint, Splendid Blended) looked like they would be gasping for air at the 8th pole - Polytrack does seem to demand more stamina than many surfaces. The mare race winner hadn't tried 2 turns in a very long while (at least 2 years), her pedigree said she should like it, and her form this year was decent in sprints. And the sprint winner had become a different horse with Douglas up; his form was was no worse than most in the field - a mdn win and a n1x win. These fields were not filled with established top class horses to begin with.

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.