8/4: Saratoga (Day 11-De La Rose)

[Kasept]

Week 3 of Saratoga commences Wednesday on the heels of an OK if uninspiring Monday that left some money on the P4 table ($273.00) when 4th choice Zapparition ($25.00) was missing from the play. Had winners sprinkled throughout the card, but largely missed anything in the way of super premium scores, though 1st and 7th race exactas featuring Sciacca-trained runners up went a long way towards defraying the day's expenses. 3-1 Lisa Jean edged Dr. Giacopelli's 10-1 Loyal Shadow in the opener producing a $72.50 ($2) mutuel, and when 25-1 overlay Wise Choice got up behind clear choice Australis Princess in the 7th, you were rewarded with an $122.50 ($2) bingo.

The weekend lacked the big hits of the first 7 days of the session, but I feel good as we move into the meet's second quarter with a nice bankroll cushion. Hope you're doing well and are looking forward to a great Wednesday of action. In addition to Saratoga, there is a very nice late P3 at Delaware Park (7th-9th) that includes the $50k Dashing Beauty, as well as the Cal-bred Graduation at Del Mar and the Ontario-bred Shepperton at Woodbine tonight!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

These state bred ALW events have been highly competitive and excellent sources of big prices so far in the meet. Key is beating vulnerable favorites in these events, like Rice's #10 Abilio who is not better than several here but dangerous if allowed to get easy lead and soft trip under Dominguez. And I'll further play totally against ML fave #7 Tom Kitten..

Best Value: #8 Joey's Chance 8-1: Sits stalking trip; Race 2 back wins.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Barrel of Love 6-1: Hertler with positive stretchout ROI.. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Gamblin Fever 10-1: Consistant board hitter 7th
Super Add: #1 Mr. Hooker 20-1: Woody Payne's 5yo broke MDN here '09.. 8th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Box 1-3-5-8-10 (5x4x3x2 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


2nd: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Fiscal Stimulus 7-5: Klarman coins the worst names in racing.. WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #7 Ender's Universe 4-1: 3yo debut in vicinty of short number fave above.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Espirito Santo 5-1: Guillot gelding working well for bow.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Coach Billy G. 5-1 5th



3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Well-matched and uncomfortably confusing group featuring Turf/Dirt and Class movers. One question that makes this a difficult race is whether 8-5 Kid Kate and 6-1 Proclaim possibly duel. That would suit the 3 below quite well, as they can sit stalking trips. Fact is that North Rodeo is faster than anyone else here..

Most Likely: #2 North Rodeo 7-2: Flashed foot when escaping synthetics; Well spotted.. 5th
Next Best: #6 Hit It Rich 5-2: Janney homebred broke MDN at this tricky trip.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Dattt Echo: Broke MDN here '09; Style suits, gets Leparoux.. 4th


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not a lot to go on here though best of previous starters clear, and Baker firster appearing well meant..

Most Likely: #1 Bug Juice 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Seek to Destroy 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Bound by Humor 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Double Black 5-1 3rd


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

5TH HAS BEEN TAKEN OFF THE TURF..

Most Likely: #5 Silvercup Baby 4-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Daily Star 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #7 Sorority Sister 12-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-7
3: 2-3-5-6
4: 1-5-6-7
5: 5-10

2x4x4x2 = $64 $1 P4 Paid $22.50


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Custer's Last Stand 3-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Delta Thunder 9-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Renewed Hope 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Audie's Champ 20-1 3rd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Not a lot to this with race Convocation's to lose at tough to swallow 3-5..

Most Likely: #9 Convocation 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #2 Glenwood Canyon 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Overbid 20-1 5th


8th: 7th De La Rose, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Fun edition of this nice listed stake with a couple of invading prices possible. Incomparable Tom Proctor off to great start at meet, and Keertana feels like the right horse at the right price with ground-saving stalker's trip assured. Note musical jocks as Gomez sides with Haka over Keertana and Castellano with Miss Keller over Miss Catalyst..

Most Likely: #4 Keertana 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Haka 12-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Miss Keller 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #6 Daveron 6-1 7th


9th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 System Ready 6-1: Footwear SCR victim bred top/bottom for lawn.. 4th
Next Best: #9 Silver Medallion 7-2: Badge a ? for sod, but sib Sweet Talker was MSW.. WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #10 Sweet William 4-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Forum 8-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

Convocation single appears logical approach with potential to snare bonus totes in stake and nightcap..

6: 3-9-10
7: 9
8: 3-4-6-8-10
9: 1-4-6-9-10

3x1x5x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[TheSpyder]

"Irksome end to the early P4 as crazy karma angles abound.."

One of the best handicapping comments evah!!

Thanks Steve!

[Kasept]

5TH RACE IS OFF THE TURF... ALL OTHERS REMAIN ON

Main track is GOOD and should get to FAST pretty quickly during the card..

Turf Courses are labeled as GOOD..

Full changes after 11:00am...

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

[i]These state bred ALW events have been highly competitive and excellent sources of big prices so far in the meet. Key is beating vulnerable favorites in these events, like Rice's #10 Abilio who is not better than several here but dangerous if allowed to get easy lead and soft trip under Dominguez. And I'll further play totally against ML fave #7 Tom Kitten..[/I]

Best Value: #8 Joey's Chance: Sits stalking trip; Race 2 back wins..
Next Best: #5 Barrel of Love 6-1: Hertler with positive stretchout ROI..
Exotics Use: #3 Gamblin Fever 10-1: Consistant board hitter
Super Add: #1 Mr. Hooker 20-1: Woody Payne's 5yo broke MDN here '09..

.10 SUPER PLAY: Box 1-3-5-8-10 (5x4x3x2 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

steve , i understand you are trying to get some prices , but , i got the word that Seth is ready today in R1, tread lightly in r1

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve , i understand you are trying to get some prices , but , i got the word that Seth is ready today in R1, tread lightly in r1

That's nice. Good luck. "Getting word" is total nonsense. There's 'word' every single day in every single race run here. If outfits aren't 'ready today' at Saratoga in ALW races, they should get out of the game. And if you keep playing 'got the word' horses, you'll be out of the game soon too.

Tom's Kitten can win with improvement, but at 5-2, you look elsewhere considering there are 5 horses you can make as strong a case for. And since the first is a stand alone race wit no tie to a P4, it's an ideal place to try and beat horses like Abilio and Tom's Kitten.

[clyde]

Steve..I heard that in the first today at Sara's---oh never mind.



You just don't listen.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by clyde

Steve..I heard that in the first today at Sara's---oh never mind.



You just don't listen.

[clyde]

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve , i understand you are trying to get some prices , but , i got the word that Seth is ready today in R1, tread lightly in r1

You got the word too? Damn, I thought I was the only one who got a call saying Tom Kitten is set to hang like a chandelier again as the favorite.

In truth, good luck, hopefully this is a better tip than when someone gave you Always a Party for John Terranova, who's now 0-46 at Saratoga on the turf in the last 5 years.

NT

[GPK]

Thunder Chief is my play at 5-1 or higher.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by GPK

Thunder Chief is my play at 5-1 or higher.

Me too. We're screwed.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Me too. We're screwed.

[GPK]

SB,

I assume you think Silver Reunion needs one off the layoff? If she runs back the the Riskaverse, she will be awfully tough.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You got the word too? Damn, I thought I was the only one who got a call saying Tom Kitten is set to hang like a chandelier again as the favorite.

In truth, good luck, hopefully this is a better tip than when someone gave you Always a Party for John Terranova, who's now 0-46 at Saratoga on the turf in the last 5 years.

NT

My tips have been golden.
Dont knock Gales, he is a LEGEND. His tips will be golden again.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GPK

SB,

I assume you think Silver Reunion needs one off the layoff? If she runs back the the Riskaverse, she will be awfully tough.

You'll have to wait until next time Kev. She's scratched.

Not that it matters, but I gave her a big shot on the front end. She looked to be the speed of the speed, I'm just not sure how the turf is going to play today.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

You'll have to wait until next time Kev. She's scratched.

Not that it matters, but I gave her a big shot on the front end. She looked to be the speed of the speed, I'm just not sure how the turf is going to play today.

Figures. Thanks Mike.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That's nice. Good luck. "Getting word" is total nonsense. There's 'word' every single day in every single race run here. If outfits aren't 'ready today' at Saratoga in ALW races, they should get out of the game. And if you keep playing 'got the word' horses, you'll be out of the game soon too.

Tom's Kitten can win with improvement, but at 5-2, you look elsewhere considering there are 5 horses you can make as strong a case for. And since the first is a stand alone race wit no tie to a P4, it's an ideal place to try and beat horses like Abilio and Tom's Kitten.

So when the TOUT TRAINERS give out their horses, causing the odds to drop and a ton of GROUPIES to lose their money, we can see through their BS. YET, when the same individuals are in accord that horses 'like to run on the inside' (and train them that way, thereby ensuring that they're subjected to XTRA stress in races), we take it as gospel, rather than insisting that they STFU in this case as well. Why is that, I wonder?

BTW, does Wesley Ward have a colt/horse in his barn?

[clyde]

...uh-oh...

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So when the TOUT TRAINERS give out their horses, causing the odds to drop and a ton of GROUPIES to lose their money, we can see through their BS. YET, when the same individuals are in accord that horses 'like to run on the inside' (and train them that way, thereby ensuring that they're subjected to XTRA stress in races), we take it as gospel, rather than insisting that they STFU in this case as well. Why is that, I wonder?

Trainerspeak is trainerspeak. Take it for whatever it's worth... (It isn't really what's being done in this or what should be readily dismissed.) Whether a horse wins or flops, the 'steam' being generated above about how a certain barn or its' pilot fish say 'today's the day' is the worst kind of 'advice' for anyone serious about wagering on horses.