Questions for Zenyatta Fans. . .

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

1. If Zenyatta is always "toying" with her vastly inferior opponents, then how did she win this year's Apple Blossom by such a convincing margin?

I don't think she's toying with anyone. She has got to be the luckiest racehorse that ever lived not to have lost at least one of her races.

It's very complex. On one hand she is at a pace disadvantage in many of her races. On the other hand the surface she runs on supposedly enhances a horse with her running style.

Some people believe synthetic surfaces make "good" dirt horses look bad and "bad" dirt horses look good. If you believe this then the explaination for her performances against crappy horses is the surface. If she ran on a "real" surface she would blow away these nags. She's actually bred for turf which is supposed to be beneficial for horses who run on synthetic. That theory of course can be destroyed on a case by case basis as there are no absolutes.

The competition in the races she has run in this year has been pathetic. Somewhere along the line you would think that because she barely beats these pathetic horses that one of them could simply step it up and she would be in trouble. After all, what horse is lucky enough to eek out 1 1/4 length< victories time after time against the same horses without one of them turning the tables. If she's not blowing these horses away in any of her races then it stands to reason that she's not that much better than them.

The AB was one of the most ugly G1 dirt races run this year. If RA had shown up I simply can't envision how Zenyatta could have possibly won. Only the luckiest horse in the world could have.

[Travis Stone]

DRF reporting that Zenyatta could run in the Zenyatta stakes next.... or so the trainer is indicating.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

DRF reporting that Zenyatta could run in the Zenyatta stakes next.... or so the trainer is indicating.

"The only thing that concerns me is if I go to New York, do I go directly to Kentucky?" he said. "And how long do I stay away from the [California] stable? I'm not a good telephone trainer. We have to decide the best decision."

The words of a training genius.

[letswastemoney]

So will the Mosses award themselves the trophy in the Winner's Circle?

I wish there was an exchange bet on Shirreffs ever participating in cuckolding.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This was probably against seasoned competition. You don't expect novices to pick up the game as quickly as poker, do you?

There's always like a market setting person or machine in there - it's tough to explain, but he/they set the tone and act like a big fish trying to gobble up all the little minnows. It's frustrating sometimes - but they ensure liquidity and once you get a feel - you can figure out which offers they'll likely match or ignore.

I'd almost always have some action both ways on almost every race.

I've had so many emo meltdowns it wasn't even funny. You could be having a great day - and step into one huge trap and lose 2K on a race.

The worst day I ever had in my entire life betting was opening day of Belmont Spring in 2004. I went zero for the card and had 3 or 4 horses I made significant play against win. I had to lose about 8K or so that one day alone - most of it was my own money. I remember running to KMart to Western Union them money and it was in just in time to get buried some more. I had quite a few awesome runs - but when you get hit, you get hit hard.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by pba1817

You losers can't even embrace something that is bringing positive attention to your beloved sport... She is great, beat all the best last year in the BCC and will probably be right there again this year with the speed ball pigs who are gonna stop at 1 1/4 in November at CD.

Is she bringing positive attention to the sport? People who follow racing know she ran but the rest of the sports world doesn't. There was nothing on the front page of ESPN or any of the other main stream sports sites yesterday. If she shipped and ran against credible fields or against the boys she would garner attention for the sport. These races do nothing to promote the sport to the casual fan, they just stroke the connections egos.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Another worthless response. I should have known better.

Well it's true!

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by 3kings

People who follow racing know she ran but the rest of the sports world doesn't. There was nothing on the front page of ESPN or any of the other main stream sports sites yesterday.

It was on Sports Center Sunday AM. I only know this because my brother, who doesn't follow the sport but knows that I do, and has heard me talking about her streak, called me yesterday to ask me where he could see a video of the race.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

DMR WPS Combined Pool

7/24 - $4,234,464
7/31 - $4,658,515
8/7 - $5,577,436

thanks tiggerv. now, anyone know the usual sat. crowd vs 8/7? that way you could see if the increase in attendance was the same %-wise as the increase in handle. i'm figuring no. tvg said on the radio that a crowd had staked out spots around the paddock starting at the end of race five. obviously those people weren't placing bets if they stood from races five thru nine in one spot.


just saw that it was 10k more than usual...so no, the percentage increase in attendance didn't equate to the same percentage increase in handle. but, still a good day.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

thanks tiggerv. now, anyone know the usual sat. crowd vs 8/7? that way you could see if the increase in attendance was the same %-wise as the increase in handle. i'm figuring no. tvg said on the radio that a crowd had staked out spots around the paddock starting at the end of race five. obviously those people weren't placing bets if they stood from races five thru nine in one spot.

Del Mar's figures for Saturday go like this:

Attendance: 32,536
On-Track Handle: 3,935,983
In-State: 5,968,638
Inter-State: 9,595,665
Per Capita On-Track: $120.98 (About $110.98 more than that ass-clown in the tank top that TVG showed chanting outside the winner's circle)

On 7/31 these were their numbers:

Attendance: 25,348
On-Track Handle: 3,124,759
In-State: 4,791,554
Inter-State: 8,307,279
Per Capita On-Track: $123.28

On 7/24 these were their numbers:

Attendance: 21,814
On-Track: 2,980,235
In-State: 4,990,118
Inter-State: 7,283,029
Per Capita On-Track: $136.62

By far and away the most positive numbers on Saturday were these (Saratoga 2010 vs. 2009)

In 2009 Saratoga had 39,568 in the place and the total handle was $21,916,837. This year the attendance was a bit lower, 36,658 but the total handle was $24,066,003.

NT

[Athletics005]

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Athletics005

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

I wish you posted here more often.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by pba1817

You losers can't even embrace something that is bringing positive attention to your beloved sport... She is great, beat all the best last year in the BCC and will probably be right there again this year with the speed ball pigs who are gonna stop at 1 1/4 in November at CD.

really?? barely anyone outside the "horse racing community" knows who BIG Z is.


and seriously? beat all the best last year in the BCC?? best at what exactly??

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Athletics005

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

A convincing argument, you are right about the excuses if she wins, outs are already being made post Whitney that the competition this year will be weak.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by pba1817

That is precisely who I mean jerk off...

These people are the ones you need to entertain.

Do you think that the NFL cares about entertaining the hardcore gambler who will bet on coin tosses and halftime spreads? Or do they care about entertaining the housewife who has 3 kids and will support her team till she is 78yo? All the while buying tickets and merchandise?

this is maybe the most clueless thing I've ever read on an internet message board.

WE NEED TO MARKET TO THE PEOPLE WHO DONT BET!!! COME ON NOW FOLKS!!

Those $2 entry tickets and all that merchandise drives UP the bottom line.. maybe I can get an autgraphed Musket Man photo or something? Betting is useless to tracks. Why would a track care about a gambler when they could get someone to buy a t-shirt!!

I'm hoping that I just havent read enough of this thread and pba's post was tongue in cheek.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

Actually, the sport does need FANS, and gamblers, and owners, and leadership, and a lot of other things. It needs balance and sports like the NFL and MLB and even freakin' Major League Soccer have those things. I was just at a conference that the NFL Commissioner spoke at (he's surprisingly a very soft spoken man) and he talked about the how important the balance is between all user groups and how important the fans are. Without the fans, revenue drops - you need the balance. The sport of horse racing is really lacking in this balance.

i dont know how you can even go around comparing horse racing & the NFL?

They are two completely seperate products that have two completely different goals.

one is based purely on gambling.. one is based on TV contract and ticket sales.

apples and diet soda... (apples & oranges are more similar than NFL and horse racing)

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Betting exchange markets by themselves can save this sport - assuming the commisions are kept reasonable and that there's few or no entities competing with each other.

If things go smoothly ... horse racing will be flooded with 19 year old college kids on a sustained Mountain Dew buzz who spend 14 hours a day on their computer handicapping and betting on races in the market.

That's what could save racing - a vast army of younger people betting up to 70 or 80 races a day.

^^^ a very good solution (much better than ticket sales and merchandise)

[Antitrust32]

New England Patriots = Zenyatta
Indy Colts = Rachel
N.O. Saints = Quality Road
Houston Texans = Musket Man
Dallas Cowgirls = Blame
Oakland Raiders = Mine that Bird
Kansas City Chiefs = Super Saver
Philadelphia Eagles = Looking at Lucky (runs big races but comes up short in the superbowl)
Washington Redskins - The Green Monkey

a Joe Montana led 49ers = Secretariat

2008 Detriot Lions = Zippy Chippy


this is kinda fun. Maybe we can come up with a Madden 2010 - Churchill Downs addition.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I don't think it's about her personality. I think it's preparation, surface and set up.

The trainer isn't going to have her cranked to beat that crew and with her running style and the way the race set up on that surface she wasn't going to beat them by much.

She had won 17 races in a row, she runs every 2 months and you think she is only winning by short margins because she isnt cranked up? LOL

she is plenty cranked up to win by a handy margin.....if she had it in her.

She isn't winning under wraps. She is winning in a drive. The idea that she is just doing what she has to do to win is speculation that makes no sense. No one wants to win by a neck if you can win by 3.