This is different

[Indian Charlie]

http://www.drf.com/news/baffert-inte...it-slow-factor

[RolloTomasi]

Not sure if what Baffert's trying to say is that The Factor is not pointing to the Classics, or that he won't be running in the Santa Anita Derby next out. Maybe he'll shoot for the Gotham?

Anyways, Baffert hasn't been too successful turning a good sprinter into a Derby horse in the past. Zensational and Thirty Slews both bombed miserably in their route attempts prior to the Derby.

If The Factor stays on the trail, he'll probably end up somewhere between Bob Black Jack and Fast Parade in terms of success.

Of course, the Housebuster route makes the most sense. Take advantage of the 110lb weight assignment in the Met Mile.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not sure if what Baffert's trying to say is that The Factor is not pointing to the Classics, or that he won't be running in the Santa Anita Derby next out. Maybe he'll shoot for the Gotham?

Anyways, Baffert hasn't been too successful turning a good sprinter into a Derby horse in the past. Zensational and Thirty Slews both bombed miserably in their route attempts prior to the Derby.

If The Factor stays on the trail, he'll probably end up somewhere between Bob Black Jack and Fast Parade in terms of success.

Of course, the Housebuster route makes the most sense. Take advantage of the 110lb weight assignment in the Met Mile.

Didn't Thirty Slews run okay in the Derby Trial?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If Mucho Macho Man hadn't run so great in the Remsen before faded to 4th in a slightly fast paced one-turn mile behind Dialed In ... people probably would have been labeling him as a sprinter.

For a speed horse - It's WAY harder to get 7fs or a one-turn mile this time of year - than it is to get 8.5f or 9f.

Even Bob Black Jack was right there with Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby - and he's a true speed sprinter.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Didn't Thirty Slews run okay in the Derby Trial?

No. He got brow beaten in the Lexington by Home At Last and Pleasant Tap.

Ran 3rd about 9 lengths back.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Mucho Macho Man hadn't run so great in the Remsen before faded to 4th in a slightly fast paced one-turn mile behind Dialed In ... people probably would have been labeling him as a sprinter.

For a speed horse - It's WAY harder to get 7fs or a one-turn mile this time of year - than it is to get 8.5f or 9f.

Even Bob Black Jack was right there with Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby - and he's a true speed sprinter.

I wouldn't use BBJ being close to Colonel Tiago as a good example to illustrate your point at all!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No. He got brow beaten in the Lexington by Home At Last and Pleasant Tap.

Ran 3rd about 9 lengths back.

Yeah, I remember him being third to a couple of useful horses, but I didn't recall how much he got beat by.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I wouldn't use BBJ being close to Colonel Tiago as a good example to illustrate your point at all!

I'll use one of your favorite horses - Man Among Men beat Empire Maker at 9fs in the Sham. Going Wild beat Giacomo at 9fs in the Sham. Master David beat Borrego at 9fs in the Sham.

It's easy to get any distance when everyone is crawling and trying to sprint home. When you blitz early at 7f or a one-turn mile - it's a bitch to get that last 1/8th.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

For a speed horse - It's WAY harder to get 7fs or a one-turn mile this time of year - than it is to get 8.5f or 9f.

Not if the race is at Santa Anita after a rainstorm against a field of other 6f horses. When bonafide Derby candidates actually used races like the San Vincente or the Hutcheson as prep races, then it was tough for the speed horses to get it done at 7f.

By the way Honour and Glory, Funontherun, Conveyance, Rojo Toro, Crafty C.T., Orville N Wilburs, all one at a flat mile at Santa Anita as early 3yos. Add in Apollo, who split Dinard and Best Pal. So I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you.

Even Bob Black Jack was right there with Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby - and he's a true speed sprinter.

How about the 8.5f San Felipe that year? Georgie Boy over Gayego over Bob Black Jack.

If any of those nags stayed sound it would have been the most productive BC Sprint prep of the year.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'll use one of your favorite horses - Man Among Men beat Empire Maker at 9fs in the Sham. Going Wild beat Giacomo at 9fs in the Sham. Master David beat Borrego at 9fs in the Sham.

It's easy to get any distance when everyone is crawling and trying to sprint home. When you blitz early at 7f or a one-turn mile - it's a bitch to get that last 1/8th.

I knew what you were saying, but I still say that was a bad example.

BBJ was a fine horse with distance limitations. Colonel Tiago, well, blech.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah, I remember him being third to a couple of useful horses, but I didn't recall how much he got beat by.

I can't remember if Pleasant Tap lit up Thirty Slews in the Malibu as well that year. Magical Mile was definitely in there.

[RolloTomasi]

That took longer than I thought. Maybe The Factor will be able to one-up Conveyance in this year's Kentucky Derby. And by that I mean finish better than 15th.

Yesterday:

“You won’t see him going a mile and an eighth soon,” Baffert, a three-time Derby winner, said after The Factor scored a front-running victory in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Sunday. “I want to bring him up in increments. He’ll tell us.”

Today:

Baffert said Feb. 22 that he is leaning toward the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) at nine furlongs on March 27 for The Factor’s next start.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That took longer than I thought. Maybe The Factor will be able to one-up Conveyance in this year's Kentucky Derby. And by that I mean finish better than 15th.

Yesterday:

“You won’t see him going a mile and an eighth soon,” Baffert, a three-time Derby winner, said after The Factor scored a front-running victory in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Sunday. “I want to bring him up in increments. He’ll tell us.”

Today:

Baffert said Feb. 22 that he is leaning toward the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) at nine furlongs on March 27 for The Factor’s next start.

lol