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#1
06-04-2011, 07:00 AM
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6/4: Belmont (7th-10th); Churchill (7th-11th); Thistledown (Derby)
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES 7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Rather salacious state bred group going for its' first level hurdle here to start the P4, and this might be the day's best individual betting race. Southbeachsandy gets slight nod as the one to beat, but there are three juicy prices in Roaring Conquest (10-1), Here Comes Vinny (30-1) and Artie Luvsto Party (8-1) that tempt and tease. Suggesting a tri play below getting Here Comes Vinny into the money, but use your own approach making sure to liberally include the longshots.. #2 Roaring Conquest has SCR'D.. Most Likely: #3 Southbeachsandy 3-1 2nd Best Value: #6 Here Comes Vinny 30-1 7th Exotics Use: #8 Artie Luvsto Party 8-1 5th Super Add: #5 Bigger is Bettor 4-1 3rd <$15 TRI PLAY: 3 with 1-2-4-5-8 with 6 (1x5x1 = 5 x $2 = 10) & 3 with 6 with 1-2-4-5-8 (1x1x5 = $5) = $15 8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Quirky turf sprint with 3 firsters and some well-bred underachievers signed on.. Best Value: #9 Houliana 6-1 5th Next Best: #3 Amirahy 4-1 WON-DH ($2.70) Exotics Use: #8 Big Apple Lady 10-1 6th Super Add: #7 Turbo Tweaked 8-1 3rd 9th: 61st Vagrancy H. (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD, Super) Hilda's Passion obvious towers over this group if close to her best, but there is the conceivable chance that she is tailing off after the enormous performances in Florida. Tidal Pool, Erin Rose, Kid Kate or Streaker would have to improve -- nee, run their career best -- to beat the favorite here. That makes it difficult to approach Hilda's Passion as anything other than a 'single', especially with the Belmont main playing kindly to speed.. Most Likely: #2 Hilda's Passion 3-5 WON ($2.90) Next Best: #5 Tidal Pool 6-1 3rd Best Value: #4 Erin Rose 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #7 Streaker 4-1 4th 10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super) NOTE: #13 Kaz Dear (20-1) drew in and is worth including in the multis and exotics.. Most Likely: #9 Bobity Boo 7-2 WON ($6.80) Best Value: #1 Song for Pupcake 5-1 7th Next Best: #4 Frazzie 3-1 2nd Super Add: #12 Erma Lee 5-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-3-5-6-8 8: 3-4-9 9: 2 10: 1-4-9-12-13 5x3x1x5 = $75 $1 Pick 4 (1-3-2-9) Paid $30.75 CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super) Big and suspicious drop on 3-1 fave Blushing Romeo. Nickel claimers a tough way to start the P5.. Best Value: #6 Chesapeake Bay 6-1 5th Next Best: #10 Blushing Romeo 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Saviano 8-1 4th Super Add: #7 Bad Jenna Lee 15-1 11th 8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Many notable sisters of stars here including Shackleford/Afleeting Lady, Rated Fiesty/Time Counts, Seeking the Title/Ensign's Soul and Here Comes Ben (runs in 10th)/Gottahaveadream.. Most Likely: #6 Empress of Gold 4-1 5th Best Value: #9 Gottahaveadream 8-1 10th Next Best: #4 Time Counts 3-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Lightshaft 4-1 8th 9th: 37th Dogwood (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, Dd, Super) Most Likely: #5 Fantasy of Flight 4-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Might 2-1 5th Exotics Use: #8 Gran Lioness 4-1 3rd 10th: 23rd Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Capt. Candyman Can 5-2 3rd Next Best: #1 Here Comes Ben 4-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Cash Refund 4-1 8th Super Add: #2 Riley Tucker 8-1 5th 11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #8 Cascadilla Falls 6-5 WON ($3.40) Best Value: #10 Private Offering 12-1 5th Exotics Use: #4 Knysna 8-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Open Agenda 4-1 3rd Hi-5 Play: #9 Groupie Doll 15-1 8th <$50 P5 Play: 7: 1-6-7-10 8: 2-4-6-9 9: 1-5 10: 1-3-5 11: 8 4x4x2x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48 <$75 P4 Play: 8: 2-4-6-9 9: 1-5 10: 1-3-5 11: 4-8-10 4x2x3x3 = $72 ($36 for .50) THISTLEDOWN POST-SCRATCHES 8th: 77th Ohio Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super) OK group for this with a few players -- like Global Power as discussed yesterday on ATR with Chad Brown -- showing potential to impact second half of the sophomore season.. Most Likely: #10 Global Power 7-2 7th Best Value: #9 Goodtimehadbyall 12-1 6th Next Best: #1 Caleb's Posse 3-1 WON ($6.20) Super Add: #4 Le Mans 6-1 5th WOODBINE POST-SCRATCHES WO 8th: 56th Nassau (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super) Most Likely: #9 Never Retreat 3-1 2nd Best Value: #6 Valli With a Vow 15-1 3rd Exotics Use: #4 Miss Keller 5-2 6th Super Add: #5 Bay to Bay 8-1 WON ($15.10) Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-05-2011 at 05:30 AM. 
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#2
06-04-2011, 08:19 AM
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Steve, who you like in the Nassau....Oregon Lady a chance?
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#3
06-04-2011, 08:27 AM
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Quote:
WO 8th: 56th Nassau (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super) Most Likely: #9 Never Retreat 3-1 Best Value: #6 Valli With a Vow 15-1 Exotics Use: #4 Miss Keller 5-2 Super Add: #5 Bay to Bay 8-1
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-04-2011 at 08:44 AM.
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#5
06-04-2011, 10:07 AM
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#6
06-04-2011, 01:10 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-04-2011 at 04:36 PM.
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#8
06-04-2011, 04:48 PM
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How about that baby!?!?!?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
06-04-2011, 06:11 PM
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