7/7: Belmont Park (4th-9th)

[Kasept]

Taking the annual post-Triple Crown, pre-Saratoga freshening, but too much good racing out there to completely shirk the responsibilities!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Resoundingly 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Centrina 9-5 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Speedy's Gal 5-1 3rd


5th: Rob N Gin, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific and very wide open overnight stake honoring the excellent son of Farma Way that won the Jersey Derby (G2), Hall of Fame (G2) Poker (G3), KY Cup Mile and PA Governor's Cup for Bobby Barbara and Sabine Stable.. Stormy's Majesty and Congaree half brother Sangaree make turf debuts here, and both are eligible to do OK over it..

Most Likely: #5 Beau Choix 8-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #2 Boots Ahead 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sangaree 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Stormy's Majesty 8-1 4th


6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Paper Plane 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 City Scamper 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Page by Page 6-1 WON ($30.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Senora Dubai 10-1 3rd


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Brutally well-matched group, and until I see SCR's, will plan on swinging for the fences. With Linda Rice having Quick Money in here and eligible for laurels, Pegasus Tommy D., (cross-entered in Saturday's 6th), may very well come out. Can't Refuse is entered in Friday's $25k CLM 7th and is 15-1 there too..

SCR #9 Can't Refuse..

Best Value: #7 Chernobyl's Hero 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Vose the Host 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Saratoga Steve 10-1 6th


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Yet another tough set..

Best Value: #7 Katskill Bay 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Head Heart Hoof 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 The Zipster 2-1 WON ($12.60)


9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Risky Rachel 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Jackie Mo 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Sentimental Lass 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Super Add: #1 Fortheloveof Anna 8-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-6-7
7: 1-3-7-8
8: 3-6-7
9: 1-3-8-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[bahughes]

looks like a fun card good luck today steve

[jms62]

Nice call on Beaux Choix.. Johnny V gave Voodoo Swinge a hell of a ride

[3kings]

He was in trouble after he broke awkwardly.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Paper Plane 2-1
Next Best: #4 City Scamper 3-1
Best Value: #6 Page by Page 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Senora Dubai 10-1

Results for Race 6

Position Runner Win Place Show
1st 6 PAGE BY PAGE $30.40 $8.30 $6.20
2nd 7 PAPER PLANE $2.50 $2.30
3rd 1 SENORA DUBAI $8.40
4th 4 CITY SCAMPER

Other Payouts

$2 EX (6/7) paid $90.00
$2 TRI (6/7/1) paid $727.00
$2 SPR (6/7/1/4) paid $1,889.00
$2 DD (5/6) paid $119.50
$2 P03 (3/5/6) match 3 paid $545.00

[Sethcarter]

nice call in the 6th, Steve... good start to the pick 4... Good luck, will be pulling for you!

Best of Luck

[Dahoss]

Belmont 8th
$4 double
2,4/ 1,3,9

$15 win 2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by bahughes

looks like a fun card good luck today steve

BA.

Thx.. Was indeed a great betting card. Hope you did well!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Results for Race 6

1st 6 PAGE BY PAGE $30.40 $8.30 $6.20
2nd 7 PAPER PLANE $2.50 $2.30
3rd 1 SENORA DUBAI $8.40
4th 4 CITY SCAMPER

$2 EX (6/7) paid $90.00
$2 TRI (6/7/1) paid $727.00
$2 SPR (6/7/1/4) paid $1,889.00
$2 DD (5/6) paid $119.50
$2 P03 (3/5/6) match 3 paid $545.00

The 6th worked out pretty good..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

nice call in the 6th, Steve... good start to the pick 4... Good luck, will be pulling for you!

Best of Luck

With all due respect, and I love Steve, how is having one's third selection win considered a nice call?

I picked him third as well.....and considered it picking a loser.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

With all due respect, and I love Steve, how is having one's third selection win considered a nice call?

I picked him third as well.....and considered it picking a loser.

You can do a lot worse than simply playing all Steve's Value plays. I am willing to bet that Steve has a positive ROI for Saratoga meet on his Value Plays.

[Kasept]

This gets back to the Litfin discussion in the paddock. It all depends on how you view/utilize selections, and some of that chat should include familiarity with the approach of the specific handicapper. Are the 1-2-3-4 tabs a written-in-stone ranking that says the top pick is the only horse that can win? Somewhat, but hardly an imperative of how to employ the selections in wagers.

In that 6th Thursday, I suggested using the top three in the P4 including Page by Page, who felt like the third most likely winner to me, and to Andy too. Obviously, using horses in multis is confirmation that someone believes that horse can win the race. (And I think Seth's bon mot was a nod in that direction for including Page by Page on the quad ticket.)

I didn't play the race individually Thursday. But as I've explained for years, I'm an exotics and multi-race player first and win bettor second. I use several horses in boxes and/or keys, typically building around the win candidate horse with the best price intra-race and with big prices inter-race, trying to snare large mutuels. I'm not keeping score of my 'top pick' for ROI because it hardly is indicative of how I'm doing at any time.

I know what Andy is saying because he tweaks me about 'liking every horse' all the time. He is much more focused on individual horses as win candidates than I am, and is certainly the single best handicapper/presenter in North America when it comes to putting the public on a race's likely winner -- regularly at outrageous overlay prices. He also has the opportunity on the daily broadcast and via twitter to point out those horses on a timely basis based on situations that arise as the race card unfolds.

I'm ranking horses based on my opinion of them likely winning and being in the exacta, tri and super. How people employ that opinion is up to them. Some take my 4 and box them for dime supers or exactas. During Saratoga, Tina boxes them in trifectas. I typically key the likely and the best value with the rest. A sidebar to Thursday's 6th is that the 15-1 winner wasn't key to success in my mind (other than for the multi-race bets)... it was ignoring Tagg's 7-2 Proud Dame in favor of including Hushion's 30-1 Senora Dubai. She ran third triggering the $363 tri and $945 super, so if there was something clever that I did in how I saw the race, it was that.

[dino]

I think this race was some kick ass handicapping from Steve but it is always tough to take 4 picks and play them to win, exacta's, tri's, supers, doubles, pick 3 - 4 - 5 - and 6's.
But reguardless of this congrats on a big race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, given the Pick-4 was not hit, where was the good selection? Sorry, but sneaking a winner in as your third or fourth selection is meaningless, especially if it was merely used as part of a bet that lost. You can dress it up however you like, but unless it was ( at least ) part of a winning strategy, it is not even remotely notworthy that someone thought a fringe player versus a 1:2 shot was...a fringe player.

I think it's FAR more noteworthy that Steve didn't think 6:5 Voodeo Swinge, questionable ride or not, was even a minor player in yesterday's 4th, and he picked the winner on top. That was a race he nailed pretty well.

[dino]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, given the Pick-4 was not hit, where was the good selection? Sorry, but sneaking a winner in as your third or fourth selection is meaningless, especially if it was merely used as part of a bet that lost. You can dress it up however you like, but unless it was ( at least ) part of a winning strategy, it is not even remotely notworthy that someone thought a fringe player versus a 1:2 shot was...a fringe player.

I think it's FAR more noteworthy that Steve didn't think 6:5 Voodeo Swinge, questionable ride or not, was even a minor player in yesterday's 4th, and he picked the winner on top. That was a race he nailed pretty well.

4 picks meaning his 4 picks in the race as opposed to the PICK 4.