Giacomo = No chance

[Scav]

Originally Posted by repent

lol,
well at least you are not jerry who lost 5K or whatever on Cambiocorsa.lol


Repent

He is full of it, he didn't lose 5k on that rat....

[repent]

Originally Posted by Scav

He is full of it, he didn't lose 5k on that rat....

I hope you are right.


Repent

[Bernardini]

Originally Posted by repent

exactly.
its easy to say who will not win.
tell me who will win.

or at least if you are going to start a thread about taking a stand against a horse, start one about a favorite or short priced horse you are taking a stand against.

Im hoping nobody is going to start a thread about how Super Frolic can not win either.

no offense to the author of the thread, just to the idea behind it.


Repent

heres my take, if you dont like the thread dont post, start your own!!! btw Lava Man is your winner.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

heres my take, if you dont like the thread dont post, start your own!!! btw Lava Man is your winner.

ok,
I can still have an opinion on the subject without totally agreeing with the logic behind the initial post of the thread.

and how the hell can you think lava man will win the BCC with the handle that you use?
did you pick that handle without actually watching the horse run?


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[Bernardini]

actually, i had a vision lol, well I want Bernardini to win (or Perfect Drift). But my Tivo begs to differ. The more I watch Lava, the clearer it gets.. this horse can dig when it counts. This observation is w/o looking at compartive stats or number.. just visuals.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

actually, i had a vision lol, well I want Bernardini to win (or Perfect Drift). But my Tivo begs to differ. The more I watch Lava, the clearer it gets.. this horse can dig when it counts. This observation is w/o looking at compartive stats or number.. just visuals.

If Hurricane Run were to scratch,
I would think Lava Man would have a better chance of winning in the BC Turf.
thats how little of a chance I give him in the BC Classic.

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[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

So,you started a thread to warn people that a 30/1-40/1 shot isn't gunna hit the board(no matter the pace.)Isn't that right? Do you really want everybody to start a thread about the longshots they don't think will hit the board?

Anyways,no 'Pent,haven't seen anything written by the lune you mentioned,but I don't check the old board.

Well.....yeah sort of.
Basically I just wanted to start a thread to see if there were a lot of people who agreed with avance2000 about giacomo being an "interesting" horse in the race. I suppose I could have started the thread by just asking "What do people think about Giacomo's chances?" but I just figured I would jump right in with my opinion. As for the other longshots, if people wanted to start threads that became discussions about the horse's chances....I really would not have a problem with it. If I was interested........I would read it and if I was not......I wouldn't.
And as I said before....I really would not mind if there was a thread about every horse in the classic. I think it might help people cap the race.

Anyway scuds, I am sorry that expressing my opinion about a Kentucky Derby winner's chances in the BCC pissed you off so much. That was not my intention.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by repent

If Hurricane Run were to scratch,
I would think Lava Man would have a better chance of winning in the BC Turf.
thats how little of a chance I give him in the BC Classic.

Repent

I agree 100% repent, I agree that he would have a huge shot in the turf, or even the Mile....I will be surprised if he hits the board in the BCC

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

actually, i had a vision lol, well I want Bernardini to win (or Perfect Drift). But my Tivo begs to differ. The more I watch Lava, the clearer it gets.. this horse can dig when it counts. This observation is w/o looking at compartive stats or number.. just visuals.

You might want to watch his races outside of Cali.
And dude, your NAME is Bernardini!!!! How can you pick against him?

[repent]

Originally Posted by miraja2

And as I said before....I really would not mind if there was a thread about every horse in the classic..

good gosh,
please no Brother Derek, Suave, or Super Frolic threads.

I would not have picked BroDerek to win any of those Cal Cup races today, much less the BCC.


Repent

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

I agree 100% repent, I agree that he would have a huge shot in the turf, or even the Mile....I will be surprised if he hits the board in the BCC

I agree too. He has had a great year, and if the race was at Hollywood Park he might have a legitimate chance. As it stands....I say he finishes off the board......but in front of Giacomo.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by repent

good gosh,
please no Brother Derek, Suave, or Super Frolic threads.

I would not have picked BroDerek to win any of those Cal Cup races today, much less the BCC.


Repent

See I think a thread like that would be fun. Who will finish first among those horses? How many lengths will they be defeated by? I say let's debate mediocrity!!!!!!

[repent]

Originally Posted by Scav

I agree 100% repent, I agree that he would have a huge shot in the turf, or even the Mile....I will be surprised if he hits the board in the BCC

you know,
I was wondering about that when watching a thing on HRTV called Pursuit of the Cup.
they were going over the contenders and I was thinking, what the hell is so tough about the BC Turf?
you take out Hurricane Run(who i am still not convinced is going to show up) and all you have is Scorpion(who has run one time in the last year), a failed European(Cacique) and English Channel.
not bad, but nothing that Lava Man could not be competitive against.
I guess they just want a shot at the bigger purse money.
thats understandable, but I dont think he hits the board either.


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[repent]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I agree too. He has had a great year, and if the race was at Hollywood Park he might have a legitimate chance. As it stands....I say he finishes off the board......but in front of Giacomo.

unfortunately if the race was at Hollywood Park,
I think Ball Four or Asi Siempre would probably win the freaking BC Classic.
they no longer have a dirt main track.


Repent

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by repent

you know,
I was wondering about that when watching a thing on HRTV called Pursuit of the Cup.
they were going over the contenders and I was thinking, what the hell is so tough about the BC Turf?
you take out Hurricane Run(who i am still not convinced is going to show up) and all you have is Scorpion(who has run one time in the last year), a failed European(Cacique) and English Channel.
not bad, but nothing that Lava Man could not be competitive against.
I guess they just want a shot at the bigger purse money.
thats understandable, but I dont think he hits the board either.


Repent

Given Hurricane Run's recent form...I think the 2 horses to beat in that race are EC and Cacique. Given that....wouldn't Lava Man have a better chance of trying to pull off what The Tin Man did to those two, than with whatever strategy they employ with him in the classic?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by repent

unfortunately if the race was at Hollywood Park,
I think Ball Four or Asi Siempre would probably win the freaking BC Classic.
they no longer have a dirt main track.


Repent

Oh.....forgot about that.....poly is spreading like the plague.....I can't keep track of where it has already struck.

[Bernardini]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You might want to watch his races outside of Cali.
And dude, your NAME is Bernardini!!!! How can you pick against him?

who do I want and who do I think will win are two different questions..
I love Dini !!! and I want him to win...and the rest will have to wait till 11/04

[repent]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Given Hurricane Run's recent form...I think the 2 horses to beat in that race are EC and Cacique. Given that....wouldn't Lava Man have a better chance of trying to pull off what The Tin Man did to those two, than with whatever strategy they employ with him in the classic?

disagree about your take on HR,
but yes, you are right about Lava Man.

he is 2x the turf horse the tin man ever will be.
now, I dont expect that any horse will be able to do what the Tin Man did in the Arl Million(get away with the slowest of fractions) in the BC, but I do think Lava Man would be very competitive in the BC Turf against the 2 east coast turf stars previously mentioned.


Repent

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Pretty obvious right?
But I hope that some people (although of course nobody on this board) are foolish enough to put some money on this horse in the classic. Everyone knows he is overmatched but some fools will probably take this approach:
Giacomo + 10f + CD + large crowd + possible fast pace + huge price = BIG PAYDAY.
Of course what these people are missing is that even if Giacomo does run the same race he ran in the Derby......he will be no better than sixth or seventh. He is not running against High Fly and Closing Argument this time.
This horse is to me.....the biggest toss in the race. I am not a superfecta player but even if I was.....this horse would not get $1 from me. No matter what the pace scenario turns out to be.....he will NOT hit the board.

i can think of horses i would toss before i would throw out giacomo--believe it or not, hey scuds?! at any rate, you never know with this guy. if he has the right pace, he could win it. but suit yourself.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

thanks man.
and i was just agreeing with scuds statement b/c we get alot of threads about who will not win.
my comments were not really specific to anything you typed.

agree, i just dont see Giacomo as having done anything to suggest that he can be competitive in a race like this.
he has no shot.

Bernardini is going to have to fall on his face to lose,
unless David Junior moves way up on dirt.
thats the only scenario I can see where Bernardini could be in a serious fight.
GW could move up 10 lengths on dirt and it still would not put him on Bernardini's level.
best of luck to you in this race.
Im staying away from it except in the late pick 4 and I will single Bernardini in the pick 6 most likely.


Repent

i disagree that david junior has to 'move way up on dirt', he just has to handle it like he does the turf.
bernie would definitely be a 'bet against' here, as his odds will do nothing to inspire a bet come race day--and of course any horse can have an off day. you can find value in this race just like many others. obviously he would be used in any pick 4's and 6's....