10/6: Keeneland ($94k P5 C/O); Belmont (7th-10th)

[Kasept]

Keeneland season opened Friday with some of its' typically unpredictable results, but rather than big prices hitting that seem impossible, the bonus numbers that came in were quite plausible. The MSW 6th for 2yo fillies saw Davey Carroll (Silver Strike) and Lon Wiggins (Flashy Gray) run 1-2 with 39-1 and 26-1 first time starts, a pairing that produced a $1,038 exacta. Though Carroll is better with his 2nd time starters, he can connect with debut types and his First Defense bay was a half to solid 4x Woodbine synthetic winner Striking Miss (Smart Strike). Silver Strike was the initial domestic winner for his Juddmonte sire and second overall from 18 juveniles to enter a gate. Dundonnell, bred and owned by Abdullah himself, won a Group 3 at York in August and lost a photo in a Group 2 at Doncaster two weeks ago. The Wiggins-Morrison runner up was also kin to synthetic winners, full Yankee Victor brothers Yankee Career and Threat.

Identifying the exacta pair as serious candidates wasn't as much of a problem as moving them to near the top of your list in the 12 horse field that included 3 well-connected gals that had already run and 2 other FTS that seemed more appealing. Similarly in the 8th, Brian Lynch's Miami Deco was one of 7 from 12 that appeared to have a winning chance and Elvis Trujillo delivered a sharp ride from the #12 slot for a $30.00 bop. I strung together $11.80 Sum of the Parts and $10.60 Spring in the Air who dominated the stakes and Catalano 2nd timer I'm Already Sexy ($26.20) in the nightcap, so failure to include Miami Deco in the quad play cost a share of a P4 that paid $7,045, more than twice the parlay. The P5 went un-hit creating a $94k carryover into the big Saturday stakes slate. Hope everyone did OK. As discussed under similar scenarios during Gulfstream and Saratoga, you'll find the end zone at Keeneland with perseverance.


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 16th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bridgetown 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #4 Icon Ike 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Great Mills 5-2 2nd


6th: 32nd TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)

$94k P5 C/O starts here..

Hard to envision Groupie Doll losing as she would have to regress while someone else jumps forward..

Most Likely: #6 Groupie Doll 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Honey Chile 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Strike the Moon 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Giant Sensation 15-1 9th


7th: 15th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Motion and Team Valor were completely on the fence as of noon Friday as to Summer Soiree running here or in the Spinster Sunday, but ultimately settled for this adding to an already zippy pace scenario. It's Hungry Island's day..

Most Likely: #4 Hungry Island 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Tapitsfly 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Summer Soiree 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Daisy Devine 3-1 2nd


8th: 99th Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Of the cross-entries to Sunday's Bourbon, #7 Craving Carats & #1 Joha run here, #11 Balance the Books goes tomorrow. Wild, wide open group, but as in Friday's Alcibiades, Casse appears to have the 2yo with an edge in Dynamic Sky..

Most Likely: #12 Dynamic Sky 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Tizracer 4-1 12th
Best Value: #3 He's So Fine 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Are You Kidding Me 12-1 5th


9th: 27th Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Certainly Wise Dan a single on any kind of budget multi-race play, but as in Toronto last month and despite everything he's in the midst of accomplishing, doesn't feel invincible..

Most Likely: #5 Wise Dan 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #7 Data Link 8-1 5th
Best Value: #12 Swift Warrior 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Corporate Jungle 12-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 6
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6-9-10-12-14 (10)
9: 5

1x4x10x1 = $40 ($20 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (6/2/1/5) Paid $134.40 ($67.20 for .50)


10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gloat 7-2 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #4 Cerce Cay 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Rushin No Blushin 15-1 -
Exotics Use: #2 Ocean Bertie 7-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Shhh 15-1 3rd


<$20 P5 Play:

6: 6
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 2-3-5-6-12
9: 5
10: 3-4

1x4x5x1x2 = 40 x .50 = $20

$0.50 Pick 5 (6/2/1/5/3) Paid $3.50 (4OF5) x 5 = $17.50


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6
8: 2-3-5-6-12
9: 5
10: 2-3-4-5-6-9-10

Main: 4x5x1x7 = 140 x .50 = $70



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

No opinion to offer per se, but all eyes will be on Darwin (Pletcher/Coolmore), the $1.3MM Big Brown sales topper from FT March Sale. Albertrani has 2 FTS Distorted Humors including Souper Funny, Mrs. Weber's next Zoftig foal, thereby a half to Zo Impressive (Hard Spun) and Zaftig (Gone West) and Telegraph Hill, a first foal Darley homebred out nice GSW Little Belle..


7th: 65th Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dreaming of Julia 2-5 WON ($2.30)
Best Value: #5 Late SCR (Injured by cast filly in next stall)
Next Best: #2 My Happy Face 4-1 2nd


8th: 141st Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Very interesting edition of this, even if just left to the 3 Pletcher runners. On that front, I think Archwarrior will ultimately be best with maturity and two turn routes, while Micromanage is better now (and gets helpful draw) and Shanghai Bobby most likely to be an early plateau type. Reddam/O'Neill team brings Goldencents to the party with plenty of heat off the Del Mar debut score and Fortify will likely continue advance after the determined Hopeful placement..

Best Value: #7 Micromanage 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Archwarrior 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Goldencents 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Shanghai Bobby 3-1 WON ($5.20)


9th: 63rd Jamaica H. (G1), 3yo, 9f-IT (DD)

Howe Great is better than he'll appear to wagering public. Dullahan will be an underlay but deservedly so..

Most Likely: #3 Dullahan 4-5 5th
Best Value: #7 Howe Great 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Cogito 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Summer Front 4-1 3rd


10th: CLM, 3+, 1m

Most Likely: #9 Trumpet Man 5-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #6 Springcourt 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Freudian Therapist 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Acadian Blues 6-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 7
8: 1-2-4-5-7
9: 3-4-5-7
10: 5-6-8-9-11

1x5x4x5 = 100 x .50 = $50


Good luck!
Steve

[nwaryas]

Who do you like in the stakes at Hawthorne?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by nwaryas

Who do you like in the stakes at Hawthorne?

Nothing too clever...

Indian Maid: Romacaca/Ruthville/Kepi
Gold Cup: Alternation/Cease
Carey: Suntracer/Tazz/Hotep

Should be a fun day at the Thorne! G/L..

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S

[NoLuvForPletch]

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

[The Bart]

Steve, watch a replay of the Natalma and tell me Nancy O had a brutal trip in the race and would have won with a little luck. Nowhere to go the last 1/2 mile until about 30 yards from wire! I bet her and watched her all the way. How often do you see a maiden running in Grade 2's and Grade 1's?? I think she can run on dirt and can upset the Frizette. I know you didn't pick her, but what do you think after watching the replay? could be a hot race!