Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts

[Calzone Lord]

Undercard:

Race #1:

Segway was bounced around coming out of the gate and found himself way too far behind. I thought he made a deceptively good sustained late run while going off the extended layoff. The top 3 all had MUCH better trips -- they all relaxed kindly off of a rank breakaway leader and never had a straw in their paths.

European import Saint Loup is the other I like in there. He was defeated by just a nose in the Group 3 Prix La Force by Saonois -- a horse who came back and won a Group 1 at 25/1 two starts later, took a Group 2 in his next start after that, and was single digit odds in the Arc.

Saint Loup is a dangerous Euro in an entry level alw and Segway has a good value look at that 8/1 morning line.


Breeders Cup Day #1:

Juvy Sprint: What a joke of a race for 500K. It's almost comical that this turd has the 'Breeders Cup' label attached to it.

It's a two horse race between Merit Man and Baffert's 2nd time starter Super Ninety Nine. Super Ninety Nine has one prior race, but he also had the bullet at OBS June when he worked an 1/8th in 10 flat. He's more seasoned and prepared than your typical second-time starter.


Marathon: If this race was run over the Pro-Ride...Fame And Glory would have been my biggest bet of the day hands down. I'd have a few thousand dollars invested in this race and every penny of it would hinge on Fame And Glory winning. He'd murder them and he projects as such a good fit for a synthetic.

This Santa Anita BC is dirt this time -- and his pedigree is very bad for dirt on top and bottom. I hate European horses on dirt unless they have compelling dirt pedigrees. Fame And Glory is a pass.

I'm hoping for an Atigun and Not Abroad exacta box.

Eldaafer, that old ass son of A.P. Indy is making his 4th Breeders Cup Marathon start -- he won the 2010 edition and his last race was sneaky good -- but I'm going to avoid him because of the front-end dynamics that Commander brings and the Pressing dynamics that Worth Repeating brings. He should keep those two from backing the pace way down and turning this into a strangle fest.


Juvenile Fillies Turf:

I'm not crazy about the Euro's in here. 20-to-1 morning line The Gold Cheongsam looked about as good to any other Euro in here based on the way I like to evaluate Euro's. She's marooned out in the 12-post and that's enough to make me look for an American.

I mentioned earlier that Baffert's runner in the Juvy Sprint had the bullet 1/8th in 10 flat at OBS June ... the undefeated Spring Venture had the bullet 1/4 in 20.80 at that sale. She can rate and has a powerful stretch kick. I kind of wish she had been entered in the BC Juvie fillies instead. She would have been very dangerous in that collapse fest at a much bigger price than she will be in here...and she needs to work out a trip in here under a jockey who is no Justin Stein instead of having a perfect one guaranteed for her.

The other horse I like is one-time Euro Watsdachances. Sure, the other Euro's all have more impressive looking foreign form, but she's acclimated well under a very good trainer. Our trainers don't mess around with 2yo's like Euro trainers do. I don't know why, but the European horses improve A TON from age 2 to age 3. I've had a lot of luck with European 2yo's before ... but I only like them when I see something extremely compelling when I study them.

I'm looking for horses exiting a North American based race to go 5-for-5 in the history of the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.


Juvenile Fillies:

This race is LOADED with very speedy high quality fillies. Whichever one of the foursome of Beholder, Kauai Katie, Dreaming of Julia, and Executiveprivilege best survives this inevitable war is going to be a very serious filly in the future. They are unmistakably the four best horses in this race, but I'm playing against every one of them.

Kauai Katie had the outright bullet 1/8th at Fasig Tipton Florida (the best 2yo sale in the world) -- she's a speed demon sprinter and so is Beholder who ran a Breeders Cup Sprint like figure on everyone's numbers last time out. They're way too brilliant for this distance. Even if they get an easy lead ... they're just too brilliant...and that fact gets compounded when they're assured pressure by a rival of their caliber. And compounded that much more when horses of Dreaming of Julia and Executiveprivilege's caliber will be eager to pounce.

I absolutely will be betting 15-to-1 morning line Spring In the Air. I just wish her stablemate and fellow Spring At Last offspring Spring Venture was in here to provide insurance for me. I like them both ... I just fear that Spring in the Air is the more likely of the two to get sucked in too much to this insane collapse scenario.

I just hope Spring In The Air's jockey is painfully patient. It's a situation where you hope his instructions are "you let them run the first 6.5 furlongs and you run the last quarter. Just when you think you might have waited too long too move, wait some more."


Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf:

Initially I was a little disappointed/underwhelmed with my expectations of the two fresh Euro's when I started to really study them.

Especially with The Fugue who I expected to be a standout based on how she's trading in the market.

I would love Ridasiyna if not for the pesky fact that her big performance last time out was on a bog of a course...and for some idiotic reason, they are not giving her lasix for this race. It's the freaking Breeders Cup, take every little edge you can get.

I'd like I'm A Dreamer a whole lot more if she wasn't drawn out in the 11-hole.

I had degenerated to the point where I was trying to make a case for Lady of Shamrock in here. She's a really sneaky nice Cal based 3-yo filly who always finishes like a good turf horse...but luckily I snapped out of it. An $11,000 2yo Sale buy, 3yo filly, with straight 3 Cal form and the current Mike Smith up just isn't supposed to win a race like this ... EVER!


This race was a real drag. I was hoping to come away from this race with a concrete standout European like I have successfully in years past, or with a confident "favorites are vulnerable and almost anyone can win" take like I did in this race last year.

I don't see the concrete standout or standout pair I hoped for. And I also don't see a situation where anything longer than 12/1 on the morning-line (and that's REALLY stretching it!) can win.

Handicapping this race made me sad and depressed.


Ladies Classic:

They say pound for pound in boxing -- but division for division -- this is without a doubt the most phenomenal collection of horses in a race all year.

This race is a backwheel single for me.

Defending champion Royal Delta is sensational when she's good. Her win on the Stephen Foster undercard at Churchill Downs earlier in the year was as highlight reel and impressive on numbers as any performance by any horse all season long.

She has days where she's great (like last time out) ...but she also has days where she simply turns in clunkers.

Royal Delta may be "the fastest female ever" on Thoro-Graph figures, but she has never won 3 consecutive races at any point in her career.

She won her career debut at Belmont by 12 lengths and looked like the second coming of Personal Ensign. In career start #2, she got dirt in her face at Tampa in the Suncoast Stakes and became unmanageably rank for Solis in a terrible 9th place performance. Nothing was physically wrong, she won 4 weeks later.

After she won the Black Eyed Susan looking again like a future superstar -- she responded with an 85 Beyer in a 7.5 length defeat in which she never appeared comfortable. She responded with an awesome 5.5 length win in the Alabama.

And Havre De Grace dusted her by 8.5 next time out. But she came back and won the BC Distaff with a freakish display ... closing strongly into the teeth of a slow pace and breaking the race wide open.

But, she was beaten 8 lengths by Awesome Maria next time when she had a built-in excuse.

You get the idea -- one day she runs like an all-time great and the next day she isn't that special.

Awesome Feather is that consistent -- she's 10-for-10 lifetime and her performance last time out was pretty awesome. She just has layoff lines galore. Another cross country shipper who looks like a good candidate to win and a good candidate to X (non-effort)


Questing ran like an absolute freak 2 starts back. She was Inside Information like. She's going to make sure Love and Pride X's and she's a good candidate to win and also a good candidate to X.

My Miss Aurelia is undefeated and VERY talented. I thought she was better than Union Rags as a 2yo...and a lot better than Alpha. They ran on the same day and distance in the Frizette VS Champagne. My Miss Aurelia destroyed the field on Breeders Cup day and she's been excellent in her two starts this year.

However, much like with Awesome Feather, she's had physical problems and is running so huge right away after them -- and shipping cross country to run in such a tough spot. She's a win candidate and also a good candidate to X.

Grace Hall was super at Indiana Downs last out. She was excellent 3 starts back. Two starts back, she X'd and got beat 31 lengths. One day she's outstanding -- the next day she's losing races to Yara and Believe You Can.

Grace Hall can run 2nd or 3rd, but she's also a candidate to X.

Luckily, 15-to-1 on the morning line Include Me Out makes this race a worthy betting race. Include Me Out can't win ... she's simply not good enough. But, I HATE her chances of X'ing.

Her prep last time was designed to set her up for this. She's a locally based horse in a race flooded with cross country shippers and California based females have done outstanding at home and mediocre on the road throughout the history of the BC Distaff.

Perfect backwheel situation keying her as a standalone in the 3rd and 4th slot of the exotics.

Tri: 2-4-5-6 with 1-2-4-5-6 with 7

Super: 2-4-5-6 with 1-2-4-5-6 with 1-2-5-6 with 7 (No Questing for 3rd)

Classic situation of where a 15/1 shot might be the most likely runner in the whole entire field to finish 3rd or 4th...but has very little chance to win.

[declansharbor]

Just when I was thinking to myself that this place is as quiet as a morgue for being a day away from the Breeders Cup, you post this. I'm hopping into the card tonight and hope to slim down on a few plays that I have in mind.

Best of luck this weekend!

[jocko699]

Thaks CL for the input. I love Segway on the undercard as well. Could be the start of a great BC. I am betting that Reddam racing has a good BC also.

[RockHardTen1985]

Segway will be around 7~2. Everyone loves Segway. The Gaines has a lot of upside.
Good read Doug.
Get Saturday up asap.

[Vegaskid]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Handicapping this race made me sad and depressed.

Sometimes I get dizzy 1st, then sad and depressed follows shortly...

Great stuff CL!! And much the best this BC!!!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Vegaskid

Sometimes I get dizzy 1st, then sad and depressed follows shortly...

Great stuff CL!! And much the best this BC!!!

Writing them up is the part that makes me dizzy.

[Indian Charlie]

Why was this moved to selections?

This is the Breeders Cup, not the 8th at Thistledown.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Why was this moved to selections?

This is the Breeders Cup, not the 8th at Thistledown.

Yeah... Selections = I like the 2-1-3-6

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah... Selections = I like the 2-1-3-6

Gosh, thanks for that. I wasn't aware that people were posting their actual selections when discussing who they like.

The point being that it's the Breeders Cup, there is a lot more to it than just saying 2-1-3-6.

That, and in previous years, BC selections were not immediately moved to the selections area. At least not your thoughts and selections, which I know are immensely popular on here.

People could easily miss these discussions.

[Calzone Lord]

You'd be surprised.

More people probably come here and read the selections than they do the posts.

[TheSpyder]

So who do you like in the 8th at Thisledowns?

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

So who do you like in the 8th at Thisledowns?

Yer fucl<in'- ay!!

That's tellin' the blowhards!



Give 'em steel.

[tywizard]

Any thoughts on how Sky Lantern and Waterway Run will handle the stretch out?

[richard]

juv sprint- Merit Man, Super Ninety Nine,Sweet Shirley Mae, Hightail

marathon- Atigun, Commander, Eldaafer, Grassy, Not Abroad

juv fillies turf- Kitten's Point, Flotilla, Spring Venture, Tara From the Cape

juv fillies- quik pik

f & m turf- Nahrain, In Lingerie, Zagora, Marketing Mix

ladies classic- Royal Delta, My Miss Aurelia, Grace Hall

my plays will be exactas using the first horse listed to win, and part wheeling the others for place.

bol

[pweizer]

Doug--thanks for sharing. I am not sure I see many of these the same way but I always enjoy and respect your opinion.

Paul

Originally Posted by tywizard

Any thoughts on how Sky Lantern and Waterway Run will handle the stretch out?

Not really....no.

[ADJMK]

Thanks for the writeup.
Interesting that Saint Loup is not running on lasix. Did Julio think that it was banned for the weekend ?

[pmayjr]

Doug,

I didn't have this plan when first sitting down to cap the bc races, but I do seem to lean for better or worsened towards a lot of the Cal-based horses. Especially Lady of Shamrock. If she's really going to be double digit odds I feel compelled to really try and go for some big $$$ in this race.

Thanks for the added input/info on how you come to your picks. Some definite angles I haven't taken into consideration but will have to re-look at.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

You'd be surprised.

More people probably come here and read the selections than they do the posts.

For what it's worth I barely ever come into the selections section of the board. I probably haven't looked in here since the BC last year. I'm too busy posting shitty covers of mediocre songs in eso central.

[tector]

Anybody who does not at least take Doug's insights into account is a fool. For example, I liked his point that in the Juvy turf fillies, all the previous 5 winners have exited a N. American race. Does that mean it will automatically be true this time? Of course not, but it should also give you pause about automatically accepting that the off-the-boat fillies are a cinch, which I think some people are inclined to do.

Thanks Doug.