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#41
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#42
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![]() I know Mike doesn't like the synthetic tracks.I don't hold that against him,because he is a track bias player.He bets horses this way,and as he has said, he feels pretty much lost on a fair track,and I would hate it too.
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#43
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There is even a third company that makes their own unique surface. Michael Dickinson's surface is going to be used at one of the tracks in Northern California. So you have the Dickinson surface, polytrack, and cushiontrack, all of which are different. Not only that, there will even be differences in tracks made by the same company, depending on the climate where they are installed. |
#44
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![]() Playing synthetic tracks more and more often I have found that I'm getting used to the tracks playing more evenly and when i look at AQU for example it really stands out even more how biased it is. I find the racing less exciting on the pure speed favoring tracks.
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#45
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Climate is the big factor IMHO. All of us want to see horse run uninjured. The point I was attempting to make, that you explained, is that this surface isn't "equal" everywhere. Some folks were sold a lot of promises. Then came the problems. |
#46
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#47
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#48
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#49
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![]() I thiught this was interesting. Polytrack's PowerPoint presentation to the CHRB....
http://polytrack.com/presentation/index.html |
#50
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but if anyone would know about bias-bitching, i guess you'd recognize it for sure.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln |
#51
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#52
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![]() I remember Oracle's post on the ESPN board after Vindication was announced to be off the KY Derby trail for one of his 5000 injuries.
went something like I told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you so............................ seems applicable again on this subject. this stuff is dangerous and a maintenence logistical nightmare. well done Hollypark. hopefully they will at least get a big "thank you" card from Santa Anita for showing them what not to do. Repent |
#53
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#54
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#55
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In what i do, its my job to identify talent. I'm not a professional gambler, I think that day to day gambling has become vey difficult with the mass marketed sheets, selling of clocker info, and all the info that is available in the DRF for five bucks. In the days of my youth, in the 80's and early to mid 90's guys who kept track of tariner switches(which were NOT listed in the DRF), breeding(which was NOT listed in the DRF), trainer stats(which were NOT listed in the DRF), biases(which nobody reported in the DRF or elsewhere as well as bad trips), and using sheets(which used to be used by a small number of guys instead of mass marketed), I remember when they were the key to the vault. Not anymore. Other than some pik-6 scores this year with Lans and a pair of huge hits on BC Day and Derby day(huge overpayments in comparison to what they would have paid on a "regular" racing day without the pumped up handle, do you really think Barbaro over BC over Step would pay 11,500 on a regular racing day? Try 3 grand maybe) I find it hard to win consistently anyplace. Beyer and Crist and Litfin are dead right as far as i can see. Playesr used to be able to grind away day afetr day and make a few bucks consistenty if they were sharp. Now its more like a few big scores a year have to make a you a winner, and its nowhere near as fun as it used to be in the old days. I have no problem passing the poly/cushion tracks and not in one post, NOT ONE!! have you heard me complain that I blew a bet on this stuff. Its because I'm not playing it. But when I see clearly superior horses getting trounced by gerbils, yeah i have a problem with that. As far as your contention that these surfaces play unbiased? Are you ****ing serious? try telling that to anyone who ran a horse at keeneland who had speed, see if they think these tracks are "fair". I like to see talent rewarded, and I don't see how a clearly inferior filly to the runner up staggering home ahead of the other staggerers proves anything other than she destested it a little less than the others. Do you really think that Belgravia could beat Notional on the dirt? Even come within the same area code? The days will be upon us next year when trainers and owners begin shipping horses with dirt talent out of town and away to dirt tracks. It won't happen yet, because SA will be racing on dirt(can't start soon enough for me!!!!!!!) and guys will stick around with cushion failures to race on dirt there. But follow the trends, Cali trainers are already setting up shop in the east with a division of runners, and I hear more are going to happen. Those are trainers planning for the future Scuds, they know owners will grow tired fast of horses who have ability and aren't putting out on synthetic surfaces who cost a bundle losing and that they will ship these horses East. They don't wanna lose these horses in the future and will open these cross country divisions so that if a talented horse won't put out on it, that they won't lose the horse to another East Coast trainer, they can simply move it to the other division they have with a dirt track. |
#56
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#57
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Imagine a rematch of the top two on dirt? How many ****ing lengths do you think Jump On In would win by? How about a Notional-belgravia dirt rematch? Wanna tell me whos favored in that one? |
#58
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![]() Mike,horses are going wire to wire on the cushion.Some are winning from just off the pace,and some are coming from well off the pace.This particular surface is going to play fair most of the time.It is right now playing fair most of the time.Some dirt tracks favor speed.Everybody is so used to it that they think a surface like the cushion is biased against speed.It isn't.The dirt is biased for speed,and against raters.Yes,Keeneland was biased against speed in the 1st part of the meet.They can make changes to get it more fair.I am sure they will do that.Horses are wiring fields on the CUSHION.We don't know why Notional stopped.Maybe he has a bleeding problem ,or an injury.Maybe he needs the harder speed biased surface to run his best race.Dilemma ran great at both tracks.Again,I think if there is an unfair surface, it is the concrete that Baffert and Headley rely on.Oneil is happy with the cushion track,and obviously thought Notional liked it.Some horses are gunna need that concrete to run their best.He may be one.I don't know.
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#59
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Scuds, I have yet tohear from anyone that their horses don't train well on it. What i do hear is that they train great and then don't run a step on it during the race. Jump On In TRAINED FASTER on it than she RAN ON IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! She has so much more ability than Quick that it aint funny. You cashed a bet, props. But I will pose the question again, you win a contest and you can choose which filly's earnings you get from here on out, which filly do you take? |
#60
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![]() It amazes me that you think trainers would run horses on the cushion if they thought they didn't like it.I haven't heard that comment from trainers."She doesn't like it as much as the dirt,but we are gunna see if she can overcome it." Who is saying that? You are saying it.You are assuming horses don't like it (after they get beat.) They like it,but they might need the advantage of the concrete to get their speed to last.Which track has horses winning from different parts of the field routinely? The cushion.Anita is the one where one part of the field often wins most of the races.
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