8/24: Saratoga (Day 32-Travers Day)

[Kasept]

Tiptoed to the finale of Friday P6 sequence live to just Secretive for $3,800, but couldn't get the maiden past Parnelli. Early P4 made the day work with $457 tab on strength of 2nd race upset by Rice's Palace ($27.00). Racing highlight of the day was undoubtedly Dance to Bristol's latest overachiever stunt, a gutty G1 Ballerina win over an oncoming Book Review. After anxious moments in the Honorable Miss, Xavier Perez took no chances with the Speightstown filly and assured himself safe passage with 2013's best story.

Hope everyone had a good afternoon in advance of what should be a great Travers Day and spectacular weekend. If you missed any of Weekend Preview ATR, catch the archive or stream for opinions on SAR's & DMR's big days from Jay Privman, Mike Welsch, Mike Beer, Nick Tammaro, Ed DeRosa, Jay Frederick, Rick Hammerle and Rich Migliore. Keep an eye on news feeds Saturday morning for updates on Joel Rosario's condition and riding status...


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Rightfully So 6-1 10th
Best Value: #5 Dads Caps 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Colony Strike 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Cozzetti 6-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Celebrated Talent 7-2 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #7 Scam 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Charlie's Picnic 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Tiz Chris 3-1 2nd


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T P3, DD)

2012 version produced Summer of Fun..

Most Likely: #9 Bobby's Kitten 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #3 Mr. Speaker 10-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Stroll to Victory 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Zalmon 20-1 8th


4th:NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Without as much fanfare, Dominic Galluscio has had as strong a season here as George Weaver. Marriedtothemusic was a revelation opening weekend and game in stake follow-up. Be Bullish deserves respect. Love Crafty Dreamer's worktab for return. Aforementioned Weaver has dangerous Dr Figawi inside..

Most Likely: #11 Marriedtothemusic 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #12 Crafty Dreamer 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Dr. Figawi 6-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Kid Blast 15-1 8th


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Pleased and proud to have Toy Cannon running on big day undercard and long-strider should benefit from outside draw. Cordero and Velazquez eagerly sought return ride on our Thunder Gulch gelding after serendipitous pick-up mount opening Saturday and will need to move smartly on speed-favoring course to garner honors in good field. Let's get lucky!

Most Likely: #10 Toy Cannon 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Why Not Whiskey 12-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #8 Make a Decision Late SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Archer Hill 10-1 11th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-7-10-11
3: 2-3-9
4: 1-9-11-12
5: 5-10

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = 448


6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Hudson Miracle 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Campogiovanni 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Birchwood Road 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Elroi 6-1 5th


7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Adirondack Dancer 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #6 Wildcatter 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Rivendell 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Happy Fella 10-1 5th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Rapscallion 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pick of the Litter 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Joking 4-1 6th
Super Add: #10 North Star Boy 6-1 4th


9th: 88th Test S. (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Was inclined to believe Sweet Lulu was the goods even before glowing endorsement of her by Privman..

Most Likely: #5 Sweet Lulu 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #8 My Happy Face 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 I'm Mom's Favorite 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Wildcat Lily 6-1 2nd


10th: 25th Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P

While acknowledging that it's not the right way to approach a race, am unabashedly rooting for Miz Ida in wake of the passing of stalwart Louisville horsewoman Elaine Klein..

Most Likely: #1 Laughing 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #3 Miz Ida 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Hungry Island 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Centre Court 3-1 8th


11th: 29th King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Day's toughest race to decipher. Central Banker very viable at big number with forward progress off turf dash..

Most Likely: #2 Forty Tales 5-2 4th
Best Value: #12 Central Banker 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Let Em Shine 6-1 13th
Exotics Use: #7 Mentor Cane 8-1 2nd


12th: 144th Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)

In much the same fashion Princess of Sylmar capitalized on her opportunity in the Alabama, Palace Malice appears poised to claim 3yo championship honors by annexing Mid-Summer Derby. All systems go based on post-Jim Dandy machinations. Romansh feels like the right outsider and will be a better price than Transparent. Should get an ideal voyage under 3x winner of this event in Castellano (Stay Thirsty, Afleet Express, Bernardini). Hard to be exuberant about Orb off the 11 weeks break, though he looks terrific and has impressed morning observers. Moreno has exceeded expectations in his G2 runs and is only player in field with triple digit Beyers in his last 2 starts. Verrazano is of course the most pressing question and anything like his Haskell effort will win here too. I'll play against him within the race and cover him in the all-stakes P4..

Most Likely: #8 Palace Malice 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Romansh 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Orb 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Moreno 12-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 5-8
10: 1-2-3-4-5-6
11: 2-7-8-9-10-12
12: 3-8

2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


13th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Smiling Bob 6-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #10 Impatient Investor 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Slamarama 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Risk Management Late SCR


14th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #5 Sophie's Turn 6-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #1 As Well 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Amazing Abby 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 You So Smart 6-1 9th


<$50 P4 Play:

11: 2-7-10-12
12: 8
13: 3-5-7-10
14: 1-2-5-6-10-12

4x1x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[RockHardTen1985]

Will you finish tonight?? Interested in you're stakes opinions. Thanks Steven.

[docicu3]

Steve

There's a small typo in your P4 sequence for the 9th-12th as your selections were #'s 1,8 and somehow it was copied as 3,8.

DrD



12th: 144th Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Palace Malice 5-2
Best Value: #1 Romansh 12-1
Next Best: #2 Orb 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Moreno 12-1


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 5-8
10: 1-3-4-5-6
11: 2-7-8-10-12
12: 3-8

Do me a favor and delete this post when you fix it....

Steve

I get it now but wrote this before you had your explanation up for why your are protecting with V.

Thanks

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Steve. There's a small typo in your P4 sequence for the 9th-12th as your selections were #'s 1,8 and somehow it was copied as 3,8.

DrD

Dave..

Not a typo. Protecting v. Verrazano there. G/L..

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Dave..

Not a typo. Protecting v. Verrazano there. G/L..

Wise choice I think. Any horse with only a 1 in the loss column is worth protecting. Especially a roughed up loss in the Derby.

[Alabama Stakes]

if it means anything boss, my brother loves your smiling bob guy in the 13th...alot. in a real coincidence the real smiling bob guy is a client. (the stuff is a placebo , lol )

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

<$50 P4 Play:

11: 2-7-10-12
12: 8 (3)
13: 3-5-7-10
14: 1-2-5-6-10-12

4x1x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

Quick tinker.. Have to add Verrazano to the late quad as well. Both surfaces making things a little irksome. Either throw down another $48 or trim from 13th/14th for smaller expense. Good luck! Hope everyone is doing well.