Ateam's Saratoga $100 play-a-day

[casp0555]

nice play Joe!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Saturday, August 31

Liked this card a lot better before the rains came, so I'm just playing a horse who may not be favored that I consider one of the likeliest winners on the card.

Race 5
#2 Grand Arrival comes out of the Big Sugar Soda race that is increasingly looking like one of the best 2-year-old races of the meet. Strong Mandate came back to win easily with a 92 Beyer and Financial Mogul returned to dominate an off-the-turf race earlier today. Grand Arrival ran the 2nd best race that day, breaking dead last and making a big, wide move on the turn, staying on late to get 3rd. Being a big colt and coming out of the Zito barn, he figures to be better 2nd out and stretching out. None of the firsters look too serious.

Race 5
$100 WIN 2

$5 x 50 = $250

Thanks guys. Wish they could all be that easy.

[ateamstupid]

Here we go, doubling up after having to miss yesterday. Will write some postmortem thoughts tomorrow night, but I just want to thank everyone who came along for the ride for the support throughout the meet. It's been trying more often than not and the new job put serious constraints on how much time I could put in, but I love DT for being so receptive to what I do here.

Monday, September 2

9th Race:

I mentioned on Saturday in my endorsement of Grand Arrival how key the Big Sugar Soda race has come up. Four horses have now run back out of it to improve their Beyers, three significantly and three to win.

Strong Mandate 59 92 +33
Financial Mogul 62 81 +19
Grand Arrival 64 77 +13

Big Sugar Soda gets his shot in a fairly weak edition of the Hopeful today, draws well and Mike Smith flies across the country for this one mount today. I'm expecting him to stamp himself as the best 2YO colt on the east coast going into the fall.

Race 9
$160 WIN 6
$20 EX 6/2,8

[Stickhorse]

This SoCal player dabbles a bit with the NYRA circuit. So I have been very interested in your thread and certainly learned a few things that'll help me down the line.

I really look forward to your postmortem.

Hopefully Big Sugar Soda gives you a top effort!

Good luck!

[Scav]

Quick calculations are that you lost $400 while wagering 4k in wagers. Now, with the one company that I know does rebates open to almost anyone (except the great State of Illinois and some other dumb governments), a majority of your wagers were P4's which would have a 9.64% rebate attached to them for Saratoga, you would have pretty much broke even. Win and DD rebates %'s are lower so if you were getting a rebate, you would have probably lost $100 instead of $400.

Personally I think without your time constraints you would have been profitable without the rebate cause you did a hell of a job.

Curious, if you were using NYRA rewards, how does their 'reward' program work?

[TheSpyder]

ATeam,

Have followed your exploits for years from down South and have enjoyed your perspective.

What you attempted was not easy on several levels...as you know.

Thanks for the ride.

Spyder

[ateamstupid]

A few thoughts to wrap up this summer venture:

First off, I'd like to thank everyone once again for the kind words and well wishes along the way. Steve has done a great job to nurture Derby Trail from a small e-mail group to the premier horse racing message board on the web and I think he would agree the biggest key to DT's success is the overwhelming positivity of its posters. This is true particularly in the Selections forum, where we all have different opinions, but are united in chasing the same goal of beating the game we love over time and as such, are always happy to see the other "play along" regulars do well. That mutual respect between the board's horseplayers is why I feel comfortable making my thoughts public, win, lose or draw.

When I started this thread, I knew I would be taking on more freelance work at my current job, but it turned into a full-time position and truthfully, it couldn't have come at a better time, as the end of Belmont and beginning of Saratoga stung financially. Even though I'm obviously happy with how things turned out, I do regret that I wasn't able to devote the time to this thread I'd originally planned. It would've been nice to make a profit this meet (which I would've done handily had it not been for Currency Union and Sakonnet Point both getting nipped on 7/26; still smarts), but I'm glad I was able to battle back from major holes several times and prevent the meet from being the total disaster it could've been.

Further allowing me to shake it off is that I'm still having a good year and the first six months of 2013 were easily the most successful I've had as a horseplayer. About a year ago, I had a realization that there was nowhere I felt more at home than handicapping a racecard. It was something I saw I never tired of, even when I was going lousy and I told Steve as much last summer. So I began to treat this game with the respect it deserves and re-dedicated myself to finding success at the races.

There's still plenty of time left in the year and things could easily go south, but regardless, my confidence as a player has grown immeasurably and permanently now that I know I put the work in to succeed. And part of that work is incorporating the insights of people like Steve and Andy, other guys who live and breathe this game and help everyday to develop the skills of horseplayers willing to learn.

As much of a letdown as it is when Saratoga ends, the upcoming fall months are really the meat and potatoes of the racing season, in which divisions are decided and the stars are out in full force across the country in preparation for the Breeders' Cup. So even though I don't have the time to keep up a daily thread anymore, I'll be starting plenty of dialogues throughout the fall about all the action and I look forward to hearing from everyone.

Thanks again for reading!

Joe

Amount Invested: $4,000
Amount Returned: $3,599.07
Net: -$400.93
$2 ROI: $1.80