9/20 (PRX): Cotillion (G1), PA Derby (G2), Gallant Bob (G3), Alphabet Soup

[Pants II]

MMSC

No clone gathering in Philly.

Bayern with that speed....

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Pants II

MMSC

No clone gathering in Philly.

Bayern with that speed....

I know, Coachie...

Can't help it though. I do still love CC (and you too ). Wish YOU owned him.

Maybe we can have a contest of what sort of asinine thing will be said if he loses.

[Kasept]

PA DERBY DAY O/N: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-PRX-20140920D

[Kasept]

9th (3:25) Alphabet Soup H.

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Athelstane Centeno D E 113 FTL
2 Traffic Light Bisono J 119 L
3 Lightning Electric Russell S 115 L
4 Page McKenney Pennington F 123 L
5 Edge of Reality Ortiz I Jr 121 L
6 Roadhog Carmouche K 123 L
7 S S Skittles Carmouche K 115 L
8 El Capitan Carmouche K 113 L
9 Dancing Lounge Carmouche K 118 L
10 Atlantic Seaboard Caballero H 116 L
11 Starry Moon Caballero H 113 L



10th (4:00) Gallant Bob S. (G3)

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Favorite Tale Bisono J 119 L
2 Camden Street Alvarado R Jr 117 Blk-On L
3 Bump Start Napravnik R 117 L
4 Prudhoe Bay Lopez P 122 L
5 Pure Sensation Rosario J 119 L
6 Fast Anna Ortiz I Jr 117 Blk-Off L
7 Good Bye Greg Geroux F 117 L



11th (4:45) Cotillion S. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Cassatt Clark K D 122 L
2 Sweet Reason Ortiz I Jr 124 L
3 House Rules Castellano J J 119 L
4 Joint Return Carmouche K 119 L
5 Vero Amore Pennington F 119 L
6 Little Alexis Rosario J 119 L
7 Jojo Warrior Garcia M 122 L
8 Untapable Napravnik R 124 L
9 Stopchargingmaria Velazquez J R 124 L



12th (5:40) Pennsylvania Derby (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 California Chrome Espinoza V 124 L
2 Candy Boy Rosario J 122 L
3 Protonico Castellano J J 122 L
4 Bayern Garcia M 124 L
5 Noble Moon Ortiz I Jr 122 L
6 Classic Giacnroll Carmouche K 117 L
7 Tapiture Napravnik R 122 L
8 C J's Awesome Prado E S 117 L

[Benny]

Originally Posted by Kasept

PA DERBY DAY O/N: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-PRX-20140920D

Mr.Black is back !

4th Race. (C7) Post 12:51PM ALLOWANCE
Purse $100,000 6 Furlongs
For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which have not won $17,500 three
times other than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, or Closed since March 20.
1 MONAGUSKA (L) Demasi, K Carmouche, K 119
2 WILDCAT LILY (L) Rodriguez, R Castellano, J 117
3 ESTRADA'S GIRL (L) LeBarron, K Beato, I 122
4 DISCO CHICK (L) Serey, Jr., M Davis, J 115
5 WINNING IMAGE (L) Aro, M Black, A 117
6 HALLIE BROOKS (L) Preciado, R Alvarado, Jr., R 117
7 ROCKINONTHEWATER (L) Le Vine, C Rosado, R 119

[RockHardTen1985]

I have spent over 90min at work tonight looking at the three graded stakes races. That all stakes pick 3 will be my big play of the weekend. Here are my thought so far.

I’m lost in the Gallant Bob. 4 or 5 can win IMO. I need to look at the race more and watch a few more replays.

The Cotillion. Another tough one for me. I want to be against Untapable, but she has multiple races that crush everyone else’s best. I think it is fair to argue that she has peaked already though and she could be tailing off a little bit. Ill use her. One ticket will just be singled/pressed to her, I just can’t totally toss her. That’s more because I don’t believe she is facing much then it is that I am confident in her. If Hushion had sent Artemis Argotera to this spot, I might have singled her…… Anyway Ill back up with Jojo Warrior and House Rules. They are both well connected horses who I believe are moving forward. Price will be fair on both of them. I am totally against Sweet Reason and Stopchargingmaria. Sweet Reason is a 7f-8f one turn horse. There is nothing wrong with that. I can even understand why they are taking a shot in here. If she were to win this she would probably jump ahead of Untapable for the 3yr old filly eclipse award. I just don’t see it and if she wins I lose. Its one thing for her to win a 2 turn race at Aqueduct in the spring its another thing to beat multiple G1 winners going 2 turns in this spot. Stopchargingmaria IMO is even less likely to win then Sweet Reason. Somehow they have got two G1 wins and 1.4million earned out of this filly, with a lifetime best beyer of 94. It’s really incredible and all the props in the world to the connections…. If there are no scratches she should be around 10-1. She will probably be closer to 4-1 because of Repole, Todd and JV. Maybe I’m way off about her maybe she builds off that 94 beyer 2 starts back and moves forward and wins…. If that happens I lose.

The PA Derby. I want no part of California Chrome at all. If he wins, I lose. California Chrome has accomplished a lot on the track. Because Bayern, Wicked Strong and Tonalist did not win the Travers he is still probably the leader for the 3yr old eclipse award. With that being said I think his best races are behind him. He peaked early, nothing wrong with that. I’m going to press Bayern. He has the fastest races and there is not a lot of speed in here. He is probably a miler. Its one thing for a miler to stretch to 9f, that’s doable. It’s another thing for a miler to try going 10f with Tonalist and Wicked Strong coming after you early. I guess CJ’s Awesome could go after him, but I’m not even sure it would matter going 9f @Parx. Im going to back up with Protonico and Noble Moon. They are both lightly raced and I believe there are reasons to like both of them. Protonico has a decent win over the track. On beyer he has moved forward in every race that he has run in this year. He has pressed a hot pace and closed from well off of a hot pace. He ran fine 2 back in the Curlin and obviously VE Day came back to win the Travers. This horse has done nothing wrong this year. He is versatile. Having Javier Castellano does not hurt. Noble Moon, I think Noble Moon is really good. I think he ran really well off the layoff in the Kings Bishop. If you really take this horses races apart you can come to the conclusion that he has never run a bad race in his career. He is going to be 15-1 or more and I think he is sitting on a big race 2nd start back.

[KirisClown]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Stopchargingmaria IMO is even less likely to win then Sweet Reason. Somehow they have got two G1 wins and 1.4million earned out of this filly, with a lifetime best beyer of 94. It’s really incredible and all the props in the world to the connections…. If there are no scratches she should be around 10-1. She will probably be closer to 4-1 because of Repole, Todd and JV. Maybe I’m way off about her maybe she builds off that 94 beyer 2 starts back and moves forward and wins…. If that happens I lose.

I couldn't imagine any circumstances where id want to bet Stopchargingmaria. Her success is due to the fact that outside of Untapable, the 3 year old dirt fillies at a distance of ground are an absolute utter disgrace and that's being very kind... It's a toss up between her and Pretty Discreet as the worst Alabama winners in the last 25 years.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by KirisClown

I couldn't imagine any circumstances where id want to bet Stopchargingmaria. Her success is due to the fact that outside of Untapable, the 3 year old dirt fillies at a distance of ground are an absolute utter disgrace and that's being very kind... It's a toss up between her and Pretty Discreet as the worst Alabama winners in the last 25 years.

Im totally with you.

[Pants II]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I know, Coachie...

Can't help it though. I do still love CC (and you too ). Wish YOU owned him.

Maybe we can have a contest of what sort of asinine thing will be said if he loses.

I do like the horse and would do 1000 cartwheels a day if I had the opportunity to own him.

I'm disappointed in the layoff. I don't think Chrome is the type of horse that benefits from them. But then again I could be wrong.

We'll see.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Pants II

I do like the horse and would do 1000 cartwheels a day if I had the opportunity to own him.

I'm disappointed in the layoff. I don't think Chrome is the type of horse that benefits from them. But then again I could be wrong.

We'll see.

I think after the Belmont and considering his rant, Coburn and Co. decided that they'll be danged if they're gonna take a seasoned horse against fresh ones again and that they were gonna be the fresh horse next time. A complete lack of understanding of how some horses need freshening like that and some thrive on work. Sherman's just doing the best he can with these guys. I do find it doubtful he'd have chosen this route (prep #/spacing) for Chrome on his own, but I also doubt he'd admit that. Wouldn't wanna lose face or insult the owners.

[Arletta]

Japanese are trying pretty hard to buy him.


“But you have to understand the interest in him right now. People from Japan were here the other day (at Los Alamitos), and they want him bad. As a stud, he’s very valuable, but it’s up to the owners. If the money’s there, you have to think they’ll sell him.”

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/.../#article-copy

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Cardus

It would be a monstrous blow to the American stud industry if he were whisked away to Japan.

hardly. how much did they pay for him ?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

hardly. how much did they pay for him ?

It was sarcasm.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Cardus

It would be a monstrous blow to the American stud industry if he were whisked away to Japan.

Well someone was on quite the roll this morning...

[Benny]

A bad bet, historically on Derby returnees.

http://www.drf.com/news/crist-histor...chrome-bad-bet

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Benny

A bad bet, historically on Derby returnees.

http://www.drf.com/news/crist-histor...chrome-bad-bet

from Crist's article: "Since 1980, six of the eight horses in his exact position – returning to the races after winning the Derby and Preakness and losing the Belmont – have lost their comeback race, most of them at short odds. "

This apparently arbitrary 1980 cutoff made me immediately think that the next one back would have been bad for the thesis. Sure enough, in 1979 Spectacular Bid came back to win the Haskell. Granted, he didn't add much to the ROI of the "return" bet.

I couldn't find out how Cananero II, the one before Spectacular Bid, had fared in his return.

--Dunbar

[10 pnt move up]

Is this thing on TV somewhere other than HRTV?

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Watch out for Tapiture!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I think after the Belmont and considering his rant, Coburn and Co. decided that they'll be danged if they're gonna take a seasoned horse against fresh ones again and that they were gonna be the fresh horse next time. A complete lack of understanding of how some horses need freshening like that and some thrive on work. Sherman's just doing the best he can with these guys. I do find it doubtful he'd have chosen this route (prep #/spacing) for Chrome on his own, but I also doubt he'd admit that. Wouldn't wanna lose face or insult the owners.

Wasnt there a foot injury to get over as well?

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Wasnt there a foot injury to get over as well?

He grabbed a quarter, pretty nastily from the picture I saw, but it's not like I spend my day looking at grabbed quarters. Maybe they look worse than they are. What foot injury beyond that? It takes 3.5 months to get back from grabbing a quarter? One prep in 5 months because of that? Usually we see this kind of break when the horse has something wrong with them or is stamped 'fragile,' but doesn't seem like there was anything. It's just weird and I don't like it. I guess leave it to Art to get the job done, but still... bothersome.