134th Preakness Field Close to Set

[CSC]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do folks like Big Drama even with the inside post? Also, not that it really matters, but it's supposed to rain on and off in this area straight through Saturday. 80 and t-storms expected.

Big Drama is a big player in this race, I have this premonition of last year's Belmont with how Big Brown ran, Rachel Alexandra will be rating off of Big Drama early on and at some point the question will be popped as they say in oversees if BD fights her off or puts up a good fight I can see her getting discouraged or used and this could set it up for someone else or even Big Drama lasting for awhile. For some reason I either see her winning easily or running poorly, it's a feeling.

[slotdirt]

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...7/1037/rss0701

I love DWL's quote on the filly.

[atolunch]

Lucas is a total joke. He's got two entered and can't wait to bet on RA, pathetic!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Lucas is a total joke. He's got two entered and can't wait to bet on RA, pathetic!!

Whats wrong with that? He's being realistic. Neither of them have any shot. Luv Gov is "prepping for the Belmont", and Flying Private finished last with no excuse two weeks ago (although I expect a better effort on Saturday).

If she's 2-1 or higher, I'M going to the bank.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do folks like Big Drama even with the inside post? Also, not that it really matters, but it's supposed to rain on and off in this area straight through Saturday. 80 and t-storms expected.

Isnt the rail a huge plus for a horse whos obvious intent is to be on the lead?
Personally I couldnt think of a better horse who has this type of strategy.
As far as the wet goes, I think that would only enhance Big Drama's chances on Saturday.

Like CSC said about Rachael "either winning big or running poorly," I feel the exact same way about Big Drama. Not a horse I would want to key for 2nd or 3rd, only in the win slot.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by philcski

Whats wrong with that? He's being realistic. Neither of them have any shot. Luv Gov is "prepping for the Belmont", and Flying Private finished last with no excuse two weeks ago (although I expect a better effort on Saturday).

If she's 2-1 or higher, I'M going to the bank.

isn't that what folks said about MTB at the derby (no shot) not that i think lucas will win but he loves to run his mouth and he'll jump on the hype just to get more money on the filly. 2 to 1, by post she'll be closer to 6-5 i'm thinking and thats what the other barns want because most likely she will lose. the water gets way deeper for her saturday and we shall see, its easy to look great against inferior horses. i'll be a believer if she jogs saturday but my money will bet against that. if you bet her you will have the weight of every chump out there that reads the hype and jumps on board, including folks that don't really bet horses. wayne lucas is no fool he even knows that and so do the other barns that will be betting their horses. the more people pile on the happier the other contenders will be, trust me.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Gander

Isnt the rail a huge plus for a horse whos obvious intent is to be on the lead?

You would think. But then you might watch Smith on Lionheart a few years back and wonder what the heck is going on here.

[CSC]

One of my tickets will certainly have POTN and MTB exacta box, interesting with Mike Smith he will have no choice but to be on the rail with the 2 draw when he is taken back early on. If Smith negotiates a wide trip from that draw he should be taken out to the back of the barn and lashed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

isn't that what folks said about MTB at the derby (no shot) not that i think lucas will win but he loves to run his mouth and he'll jump on the hype just to get more money on the filly. 2 to 1, by post she'll be closer to 6-5 i'm thinking and thats what the other barns want because most likely she will lose. the water gets way deeper for her saturday and we shall see, its easy to look great against inferior horses. i'll be a believer if she jogs saturday but my money will bet against that. if you bet her you will have the weight of every chump out there that reads the hype and jumps on board, including folks that don't really bet horses. wayne lucas is no fool he even knows that and so do the other barns that will be betting their horses. the more people pile on the happier the other contenders will be, trust me.

I think you're reading too much into it... there's going to be millions in the pool, just because Lukas says he's betting a horse doesn't mean it's suddenly going to drop her odds from 2-1 to 6/5... she might be 6/5 but it's not going to be Lukas' influence.

The simple fact is she's much the best if she can repeat her last few performances. I'll structure my tickets with that in mind. 50-60% of my pick 4 tickets will end with her, and the remaining 40-50% will have some combination of Big Drama, Musket Man, Fresian Fire, Pioneerofthe Nile, Papa Clem, and General Quarters, depending on what side of the bed I wake up on.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cakes44

You would think. But then you might watch Smith on Lionheart a few years back and wonder what the heck is going on here.

What did Smith do wrong on Lion Heart? He ran great in the Derby.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by philcski

What did Smith do wrong on Lion Heart? He ran great in the Derby.

Damn right he did. I was talking about the Preakness. I think he went 4-wide on the lead all the way around the track.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

What did Smith do wrong on Lion Heart? He ran great in the Derby.

He's talking about LH in the Preakness, when he ran fifth I believe. Can't remember the race well enough to say what Smith did wrong.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Damn right he did. I was talking about the Preakness. I think he went 4-wide on the lead all the way around the track.

What does that have to do with Johnny V riding a horse like Big Drama who always goes to the lead, and now finds himself in perhaps the most paceless race hes ever been in?

I think if you like Big Drama at all, you have to be thrilled with his post. Is there any other post a horse like him could get that would be better?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Damn right he did. I was talking about the Preakness. I think he went 4-wide on the lead all the way around the track.

True... looked like a very tired horse that day. Horse had shown a lot of tenacity in every race and offered no resistance that day. I guess with Mike Smith you kind of assume he starts in the 4 path and works his way out.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He's talking about LH in the Preakness, when he ran fifth I believe. Can't remember the race well enough to say what Smith did wrong.

LH broke on top, SJ stalking, Eddington & RHT started their rallies entering the far turn, Elliott said go at that point and the race was over.

[cakes44]

It probably doesn't have a whole lot to do with Velazquez/Big Drama. I just brought up a situation where having the rail with the lone speed doesn't help.

More than anything, I just watched the 2004 Preakness again last night and thought the ride was comical.

[CSC]

I don't want to turn this into a Mike Smith bashing thread, but it seems to me he has lucked into more good horses in his time than many other riders Ie. Lure, Azeri, Zenyatta, Holy Bull...ect than actually making a difference on a horse. You could easily make a case any rider worth his salt would have no trouble winning with these horses. He rarely makes a difference in a race, and honestly when I bet horses he is on I just hope he doesn't Fcuk up.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think you're reading too much into it... there's going to be millions in the pool, just because Lukas says he's betting a horse doesn't mean it's suddenly going to drop her odds from 2-1 to 6/5... she might be 6/5 but it's not going to be Lukas' influence.

The simple fact is she's much the best if she can repeat her last few performances. I'll structure my tickets with that in mind. 50-60% of my pick 4 tickets will end with her, and the remaining 40-50% will have some combination of Big Drama, Musket Man, Fresian Fire, Pioneerofthe Nile, Papa Clem, and General Quarters, depending on what side of the bed I wake up on.

I hope you wake up on the side that doesnt inclde GQ or Papa Clem

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I hope you wake up on the side that doesnt inclde GQ or Papa Clem

Why?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by philcski

Why?

Both will not fire.

General Quarters is not good and Papa was a product of track condition in the derby.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Both will not fire

Papa Clem's work was awful, which bothers me, and I don't think GQ is good enough but I'm willing to draw a line through the Derby for all the runners and start over- clearly some handled the track and others didn't. The only two that ran to their capability were Musket Man and POTN. At 20-1 I'm willing to find out if GQ is good enough and at 12-1 I'll forgive Papa Clem's workout, but nothing less than those prices. So you might be correct in the two that I don't use.