Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are no dirt races in the BC this year ( and next year as well ).

But Pro-Ride is 87.221567788% dirt, haven't you heard?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

But Pro-Ride is 87.221567788% dirt, haven't you heard?

I thought it was 87.2215677889%

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

I thought it was 87.2215677889%

depends on how many souvenirs have been left on the track before the gates open...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are no dirt races in the BC this year ( and next year as well ).

True, hey I love Coolmore for supporting the Breeders Cup, but their primary reasons seem to be to be improving their Stallian prospects. I can't have confidence on betting on a horse with that in mind. Can they win? yes but I prefer more proven horses on dirt/Syth tracks.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

True, hey I love Coolmore for supporting the Breeders Cup, but their primary reasons seem to be to be improving their Stallian prospects. I can't have confidence on betting on a horse with that in mind. Can they win? yes but I prefer more proven horses on dirt/Syth tracks.

Then again, watching GW struggle around a track he should have NEVER been on before finally losing the ultimate fight right in front of me is probably the lowest moment I've ever felt in this game.

Originally Posted by philcski

Then again, watching GW struggle around a track he should have NEVER been on before finally losing the ultimate fight right in front of me is probably the lowest moment I've ever felt in this game.

This is true.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

Then again, watching GW struggle around a track he should have NEVER been on before finally losing the ultimate fight right in front of me is probably the lowest moment I've ever felt in this game.

That was a very sad moment.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by CSC

I will be only betting Europeans for the turf races, I'm going to let the Euro's beat me on dirt. Believe me I have learned from my past wagers.

A good strategy on the synthetic for the win but they may sneak into the exotics and really muck up a score...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

True, but I just don't really see the point in handicapping ANY race before it is drawn. I rarely, if ever, handicap a race until at least the day before it is run. The more you know about who is actually in the race, all recent works, post positions etc., the better.
Even if we did know for sure who was going to be in all of the races (which we do not), we still don't know what the post positions are. Now, in my opinion, post position is pretty meaningless in the vast majority of all horse races, but in races with larger fields - and some of the BC races fit that description - it could play a role in dictating who will be forced to gun for the lead, who is at risk of getting caught wide, etc. This is the kind of stuff I like to know before I start handicapping.
I guess there is nothing really wrong with handicapping races before they are drawn, but it seems like a bit of a waste of time given the fact that I think a good handicapper would need to look carefully at the race AFTER it is drawn anyway.

Of course you need to go back and take another look once the official entries come out. I'm certainly not putting together actual wagers now but I think there is a benefit to capping through the races to get an idea of the horses' past performances and who will be potential pace factors. And usually when the final entries do come out there are very few adjustments that need to be made since there are very few surprises between the pre-entries and final entries.

So I don't see any problem with discussing the races now. Of course if you are just picking the horses' names that you recognize it is largely useless, but that has nothing to do with whether or not entries are out.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

But Pro-Ride is 87.221567788% dirt, haven't you heard?

I've seen it up close, no way it is 87% dirt.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What are these angles you are speaking of? Educate me...

daytona is a horse for the course and will be a huge price..
Shugs horse, is getting back to a firm turf, and is worth a play, at another huge price, Red Rocks, and the Sword Dancer winner are the 2 horses to beat.

[Linny]

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

Originally Posted by Linny

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

what league was Red Rocks in the first time he won this race ?
Also Europe's best are running in the Classic, correct ?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Linny

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

Red Rocks has displayed a preference for firm turf, which may help explain why he's struggled in Europe and ran well vs. Curlin here. . .

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What are these angles you are speaking of? Educate me...

He can't win now since he's carrying mush weight, but he's right- Daytona was certainly live at a price. The last time I liked a Cali miler who I gave up on because he had a mediocre final prep, he won at 17-1 (Singletary).

[blackthroatedwind]

You're exagerating. Grand Couturier raced in two Group races in Europe, he ran third, beaten a neck for all the money in a Group 2, and he ran in a Group 1, won by eventual Arc winner Rail Link, where he finished fourth and lost second ( to Red Rocks ) by a neck. He was better than a " listed " horse in Europe. He, like Red Rocks, may also have benefited from Lasix.

As for Red Rocks, he hasn't raced since mid July, was scratched out of the Sword Dancer, and was pretty absent from training from what I understand ( he was absent from the work tab for 45 days ). To me, his talent is irrelevent, and I wouldn't go anywhere near him.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're exagerating. Grand Couturier raced in two Group races in Europe, he ran third, beaten a neck for all the money in a Group 2, and he ran in a Group 1, won by eventual Arc winner Rail Link, where he finished fourth and lost second ( to Red Rocks ) by a neck. He was better than a " listed " horse in Europe. He, like Red Rocks, may also have benefited from Lasix.

As for Red Rocks, he hasn't raced since mid July, was scratched out of the Sword Dancer, and was pretty absent from training from what I understand ( he was absent from the work tab for 45 days ). To me, his talent is irrelevent, and I wouldn't go anywhere near him.

Do you like Grand Couturier ?

Originally Posted by philcski

He can't win now since he's carrying mush weight, but he's right- Daytona was certainly live at a price. The last time I liked a Cali miler who I gave up on because he had a mediocre final prep, he won at 17-1 (Singletary).

Mush weight ? You must be super educated like HOSS, to have me liking a horse as a betting angle. I thought you were better then this.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

This Frankel runner....

http://www.drf.com/news/article/99236.html

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

This Frankel runner....

http://www.drf.com/news/article/99236.html

Why wouldn't you post the name for people that can't read DRF at work?