Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement

[Pointg5]

I would say AGS and Cowtown Cat are my top two right now.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I would say AGS and Cowtown Cat are my top two right now.

You are not fighting the devil hard enough.

You must resist with all your might.




Satan comes in many forms...my friend.

These are going to be 2 of them.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I would say AGS and Cowtown Cat are my top two right now.

Really? What is it that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Really? What is that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

I was going to ask the same question. Where the hell is his good race?

[jman5581]

Why, on the day of the Kentucky Derby of course!!

[KirisClown]

Im betting AGS too.. the horse is doomed...

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by KirisClown

Im betting AGS too.. the horse is doomed...

!!!!!!!!!!!!



OOOOOOOOOO

[PPerfectfan]

I agree with the fact that AGS is a grinder and those types tend to light the board. I will use him in my tickets. But my pick is Street Sense. I hate chalk but I love this horse.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by PPerfectfan

But my pick is Street Sense. I hate chalk but I love this horse.

I think 6-1 to 8-1 odds are well within reason. Curlin comes in as the "now horse" and he'll get some play. Folks won't forget Circular Quay, or Scat Daddy. And certainly Nobiz (although I think most people are skeptical of him) will take some dough. We might have a favorite in the 9-2 or 5-1 range. I am honestly fascinated by the potential odds in the race, should make for a great race!

[PPerfectfan]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think 6-1 to 8-1 odds are well within reason. Curlin comes in as the "now horse" and he'll get some play. Folks won't forget Circular Quay, or Scat Daddy. And certainly Nobiz (although I think most people are skeptical of him) will take some dough. We might have a favorite in the 9-2 or 5-1 range. I am honestly fascinated by the potential odds in the race, should make for a great race!

Yeah there are always the "wiseguy" horse that comes in and takes alot of play. I think that horse will be Dominican, who I dont plan to use. But I will take 9/2 - 5/1 on Street Sense please. I will not use Circular Quay, I really liked him but the time off is just to much. And Nobiz will be on my tickets also.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Really? What is it that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

Disclaimers:

All of this could be null and void once I look at the Sheets and see if he's fast enough...

Assumptions:

As has been discussed these are average horses this year
They are all a little on the slow side

I don't care about Derby myths, Voodoo or anything to do with breeding other to look at the sire and dam sire and see if they might be precocious and see if they have some distance limitations(based on races run). Most of that to me is nonsense and just people trying to act like they know what they are talking about.

We have a horse in Cowtown that will be overlooked big time on the Derby.

Here's a horse that was brilliant enough at 2 to track a fast pace and kick out a Beyer of 92 at 5 1/2f.

He's tractable enough to carve out slow fractions on or off the pace.

He doesn't appear to me to be speed crazy to me, he's not fighting the rider.

He's won 2 two turn stakes back to back.

His last appeared slow, but I believe he got a 98 Beyer.

He's going to have 4 preps and 4 weeks off, let's see what the reports come back on him during Derby week. He might be thriving.

There's no standout in my opinion and no one, unless it happens this weekend(which I doubt) is throwing big numbers.

This is a very average group of horses, again let's see what the most important figures come back, if he looks good on the Sheets, he can win.
I like his versatility and that's a big factor in the Derby. It's not like he's 10 points slower on the Beyers than anything this year, as long as the legit figures show he's fast enough, I"ll have no problem using him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

I really like that phrase....."dramatically sub-par." I am going to have to start using that one.
It is also very apt in this case.

[ateamstupid]

I like Windu's logic on this one. I think this is the exact type of race (a lot of inseparable horses and not too large of a dichotomy between the top tier and the second tier) where a bomb can come in. With that said, I think the winner will come from the group of Curlin, SD, NLS, CQ, SS, Tiago, HS and AGS, but upon further inspection, I'll probably chuck a few of those and find some bombs that I like to take their places. Cowtown Cat will probably be around 30/1, which I think is very good value considering that his IL Derby figure was the same as NLS' Wood figure and SD's FL Derby figure.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I like Windu's logic on this one. I think this is the exact type of race (a lot of inseparable horses and not too large of a dichotomy between the top tier and the second tier) where a bomb can come in. With that said, I think the winner will come from the group of Curlin, SD, NLS, CQ, SS, Tiago, HS and AGS, but upon further inspection, I'll probably chuck a few of those and find some bombs that I like to take their places. Cowtown Cat will probably be around 30/1, which I think is very good value considering that his IL Derby figure was the same as NLS' Wood figure and SD's FL Derby figure.

Cowtown Cat is an underlay at 100-1. He is SLOW. He has never run anything even remotely close to a good race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat is an underlay at 100-1. He is SLOW. He has never run anything even remotely close to a good race.

What will you be wearing if he wins the Derby?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

What will you be wearing if he wins the Derby?

I don't know.....what will you be wearing when he runs in the second half of the field?

Why should I always be the one accountable for bad opinions?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know.....what will you be wearing when he runs in the second half of the field?

Why should I always be the one accountable for bad opinions?

I didn't say I liked him really. I said I thought 30/1 was an overlay and that I like PG's thinking in trying to go against the grain because I don't think there's a huge disparity between the top tier and the rest of the field.

You, on the other hand, basically said he's going to run 21st, which is a much stronger statement, and you already were shown up by the horse once, so I'm wondering what'll happen if he runs big again.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I didn't say I liked him really. I said I thought 30/1 was an overlay and that I like PG's thinking in trying to go against the grain because I don't think there's a huge disparity between the top tier and the rest of the field.

You, on the other hand, basically said he's going to run 21st, which is a much stronger statement, and you already were shown up by the horse once, so I'm wondering what'll happen if he runs big again.

I'm now shocked to hear that you are using logic from PG. That alone should put you directly in a clown suit....if not a strait jacket.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm now shocked to hear that you are using logic from PG. That alone should put you directly in a clown suit....if not a strait jacket.

Not PG1985, buddy. Pointg5.