Storm in May

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously without seeing all the pps together it is hard to have a serious opinion, but it is hard to believe he will beat, at most, three horses. He isn't very good and he is severly distance challenged, especially on the dirt.

Well in being realistic, I'm expecting a finish about five or six from the back.

Don't get me wrong, I am really trying to be realistic about this one's chances. I've never said he has a shot at the top spot, and really will only play a few cheap supers with him at the bottom.

I wouldn't call him "severely distance challenged," though, as in his route races, while he doesn't close strongly, he is rarely passed. He doesn't keep going after making his move, but he runs evenly. Thus, I find that his running evenly at the end of the Derby will allow him to pass more than a couple.

[dearheart54]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Well in being realistic, I'm expecting a finish about five or six from the back.

Don't get me wrong, I am really trying to be realistic about this one's chances. I've never said he has a shot at the top spot, and really will only play a few cheap supers with him at the bottom.

I wouldn't call him "severely distance challenged," though, as in his route races, while he doesn't close strongly, he is rarely passed. He doesn't keep going after making his move, but he runs evenly. Thus, I find that his running evenly at the end of the Derby will allow him to pass more than a couple.

Not that my opinion matters in the grand scheme of things, but I have been following Storm in May’s progress since he ran in the Tropical Derby on January 1, and I think has as good a shot as any of the horses. He has run four more races since then, and only tanked once in all five (the Hutchenson). He hit the board on the other four races he ran this year. And if he runs, he would be the token gray, which would make me happy. Besides, it really doesn’t matter who wins, it is an honor to be nominated.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by dearheart54

Not that my opinion matters in the grand scheme of things, but I have been following Storm in May’s progress since he ran in the Tropical Derby on January 1, and I think has as good a shot as any of the horses. He has run four more races since then, and only tanked once in all five (the Hutchenson). He hit the board on the other four races he ran this year. And if he runs, he would be the token gray, which would make me happy. Besides, it really doesn’t matter who wins, it is an honor to be nominated.

Of course I love the horse, but I just think he's too slow to legitimately compete for the top spots. I love that he's consistent though like you noted the Hutcheson was his only tankjob, and that was with a bit of an excuse on the turn as well.

[dearheart54]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Of course I love the horse, but I just think he's too slow to legitimately compete for the top spots. I love that he's consistent though like you noted the Hutcheson was his only tankjob, and that was with a bit of an excuse on the turn as well.

As for me, I'm a Derby post position believer. The over-all percentages of the last 132 Derbys are high for post positions 1 through 5, 8 and 10. I'll be pondering my exotics after the post position draw. Or, I might just do what I did for Derby 131, and bet two bucks across the board on all. Giacomo and Closing Argument helped me win back all my money and then some. All in all, it should be a fun day at Trackside Arlington.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by dearheart54

As for me, I'm a Derby post position believer. The over-all percentages of the last 132 Derbys are high for post positions 1 through 5, 8 and 10. I'll be pondering my exotics after the post position draw. Or, I might just do what I did for Derby 131, and bet two bucks across the board on all. Giacomo and Closing Argument helped me win back all my money and then some. All in all, it should be a fun day at Trackside Arlington.

Have you been up there on derby day? Its a madhouse and you have all these clueless people wandering around chattering and cluttering up the teller windows and tote machines while they take 20 minutes each to make their wagers.

[dearheart54]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Have you been up there on derby day? Its a madhouse and you have all these clueless people wandering around chattering and cluttering up the teller windows and tote machines while they take 20 minutes each to make their wagers.

Yes, I have been there on Derby Day, for 131, although I was in the banquet room across the hall, which was just as much of a madhouse. But after going to CD last year for 132, I prefer the madhouse of Trackside. This year, I'm in the restaurant part of Trackside, and usually get there at opening, make all my bets right away (former accountant, does spreadsheets), and then sit with a nice cup or two of coffee until noon, when the alcohol begins. I decide how I am going to bet long before I even get there.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by dearheart54

Yes, I have been there on Derby Day, for 131, although I was in the banquet room across the hall, which was just as much of a madhouse. But after going to CD last year for 132, I prefer the madhouse of Trackside. This year, I'm in the restaurant part of Trackside, and usually get there at opening, make all my bets right away (former accountant, does spreadsheets), and then sit with a nice cup or two of coffee until noon, when the alcohol begins. I decide how I am going to bet long before I even get there.

Well it sounds like you've got a good system that works. I definitely would advise against anyone waiting to handicap the derby day card until they're at the track!

Used to go up there quite a bit, I live real close, but not very often anymore.
I prefer playing at home. Fewer distractions and no smoke.

[dearheart54]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Well it sounds like you've got a good system that works. I definitely would advise against anyone waiting to handicap the derby day card until they're at the track!

Used to go up there quite a bit, I live real close, but not very often anymore.
I prefer playing at home. Fewer distractions and no smoke.

I prefer Trackside to Lucky Magees at Golf Mill, which reeks of cigar smoke, and feels like a warehouse. I prefer the ambience of Trackside.

When I go to for a "Saturday at the races", which isn't often anymore (lack of funds), I usually do my final handicapping from Equibase downloads on the Thursday and Friday evenings before. For the Derby, I chart the results of all races starting on January 1, and follow the races on Youbet. I don't bet online, can't afford it, but it's fun to watch the races at home, with the sounds of laundry washing in the distance. Anyway, by the time Derby week rolls around, I have already decided how I am going to bet, and I just wait to hear post positions. For the most part when I lose, my loss percentage is between 20 and 25% for the whole day. I'm still working off a really good credit voucher I ended up with on Breeder's Cup Day.

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

he is rarely passed. He doesn't keep going after making his move, but he runs evenly. Thus, I find that his running evenly at the end of the Derby will allow him to pass more than a couple.

Can you explain what happened to him in ARk Derby where he dropped back from like 2nd to 7th or something on the backstretch? I think that was him. What was that all about?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Can you explain what happened to him in ARk Derby where he dropped back from like 2nd to 7th or something on the backstretch? I think that was him. What was that all about?

Beats me completely. I'd wonder about it, and I was worried about it watching the race.

When he runs on dirt, he tends to run from off the pace, and on the turf he has of late been running up on the pace or very near it. You're right though, he broke in the top flight and then dropped well off the pace -- which in the end probably served him well once it all panned out. Who knows though....

I thought you were going to say that they deliberately took him back but now..?

The race sure had its share of problems or weirdness attending to it. 3 horses got bumped owing to Strorm in May at the start, although Oficer Rocket comes from behind he seemed to never recover from that. The "slew" horse got blocked in the stretch. Storm in May is going backwards in the backtretch hard to figure then how good Curlin really is.

[whorstman]

I thought he showed a lack of quit doing that. He laid back, saved ground and made headway dts. He does that Derby Day and who knows? How many times have we seen a horse pass others to crash the board. I think an 8-10 show pay would be clutch.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by whorstman

I thought he showed a lack of quit doing that. He laid back, saved ground and made headway dts. He does that Derby Day and who knows? How many times have we seen a horse pass others to crash the board. I think an 8-10 show pay would be clutch.

I'm so torn about him, because I honestly think he's just too slow to be a factor in the Derby. On the other hand, the Derby is such a mind**** of a horse race and things happen that don't make sense. In that sense, his style and his unwillingness to quit makes him attractive to me. He doesn't mess around like some horses, seems to really have a total of zero race-affecting bad habits, etc. He's the kind of horse I love in a race like the Derby, I just wish he was the slightest bit faster on paper.

[whorstman]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I just wish he was the slightest bit faster on paper.

B Dub, paper schmaper! He was fast enough to make almost a half a mil so far. Be honest, I'm not feelin any super knockout horses in this mix. Curlin destroyed the field by 10. But yet he was 4 seconds or so off the track record. Not super fat for real.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by whorstman

B Dub, paper schmaper! He was fast enough to make almost a half a mil so far. Be honest, I'm not feelin any super knockout horses in this mix. Curlin destroyed the field by 10. But yet he was 4 seconds or so off the track record. Not super fat for real.

I'm not saying that he can't factor in with the right trip/pace etc. But the fact remains that he has never once run a race good enough to win this, and has run only one (a 6f sprint at that) that was good enough to crash the superfecta if the race is run in a subpar fashion.

Don't get me wrong, he's without a doubt my sentimental choice (ask Jamie about my text messages of "take a picture of him for me!") everytime she was going to Gulfstream. I just don't think that when real money comes on the line, that he's worth for than a few sentimental dollars.

[whorstman]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm not saying that he can't factor in with the right trip/pace etc. But the fact remains that he has never once run a race good enough to win this, and has run only one (a 6f sprint at that) that was good enough to crash the superfecta if the race is run in a subpar fashion.

Don't get me wrong, he's without a doubt my sentimental choice (ask Jamie about my text messages of "take a picture of him for me!") everytime she was going to Gulfstream. I just don't think that when real money comes on the line, that he's worth for than a few sentimental dollars.

Yeah, same here. I'm proly putting a few bucks to show. I may just put 2 to win for the hell of it.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by dearheart54

Yes, I have been there on Derby Day, for 131, although I was in the banquet room across the hall, which was just as much of a madhouse. But after going to CD last year for 132, I prefer the madhouse of Trackside. This year, I'm in the restaurant part of Trackside, and usually get there at opening, make all my bets right away (former accountant, does spreadsheets), and then sit with a nice cup or two of coffee until noon, when the alcohol begins. I decide how I am going to bet long before I even get there.

They don't serve alcohol til after noon? Philistines.

I can already tell you Storm in May will be my mom's horse since he's grey. My dad's got an interesting method to pick horses at home. He only ever watches the TC races and picks the winner in the post parade 90% of the time. The other time he'll end up picking an 8th placer or something but rarely does he miss eyeballing the horse that looks the best to him and ending up with the Derby winner. Pity the man doesn't gamble. It's like that Deal or No Deal model with an IQ of 158 or something, kind of strange she doesn't use her Mensa-ness for some higher purpose. I should market him as a wagering gimmick on eBay. You can take him with you to a paddock and it'll be like money in the Paypal account.

[dearheart54]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

They don't serve alcohol til after noon? Philistines.

I can already tell you Storm in May will be my mom's horse since he's grey. My dad's got an interesting method to pick horses at home. He only ever watches the TC races and picks the winner in the post parade 90% of the time. The other time he'll end up picking an 8th placer or something but rarely does he miss eyeballing the horse that looks the best to him and ending up with the Derby winner. Pity the man doesn't gamble. It's like that Deal or No Deal model with an IQ of 158 or something, kind of strange she doesn't use her Mensa-ness for some higher purpose. I should market him as a wagering gimmick on eBay. You can take him with you to a paddock and it'll be like money in the Paypal account.

Oh, they serve alcohol before noon. I need coffee first, beats me why. Old age, I guess

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by dearheart54

Oh, they serve alcohol before noon. I need coffee first, beats me why. Old age, I guess

A mix of both sets the day up perfectly

[slotdirt]

Bloody at 10:00 a.m. is the proper way to start a Derby morning.