Beyer caught the wedding and plans to miss the funeral.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

While not on here, I think I said I'd take employment at Taco Bell if Boca Grande won her most recent start.....

While I've munched on a few crunch wrap supremes since than....I certainly didn't keep my word on that one.

Being a man of my word isn't my finest quality....sadly for you guys, I'll probably stop back if in fact Borel somehow gets another unmolested rail trip in the Preakness.

[ELA]

If "it" happens -- I am sure, like in the Derby, people will have very different perceptions of what "it" actually is/was and what actually happened, LOL.

Personally, since the draw -- in my mind -- I have gone around in circles as to how this race plays out. Sure, I want to see the track condition, the bias, etc. I think the best horse won the race in the Derby -- period. I also think the second best horse finished second.

If Street Sense had to go outisde, and so on, does he still win? Beyer says no, maybe not, probably not, etc. I am not so convinced he doesn't win. The exercise in allocating a loss of one length for every path, etc. -- that of course is not an exact science. I guess the question might be, where does, could, would, he have to move to the outside and go around horses?

While the #'s might be very different, and the margin of victory is much greater, the same/similar conversations took place after Street Sense's monster victory in the BC.

Eric

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ELA

If Street Sense had to go outisde, and so on, does he still win? Beyer says no, maybe not, probably not, etc. I am not so convinced he doesn't win. The exercise in allocating a loss of one length for every path, etc. -- that of course is not an exact science. I guess the question might be, where does, could, would, he have to move to the outside and go around horses?

Saving a path of ground on the turn roughly equals one length of ground gained---however, there is often a cost that comes with trying to save ground. It's the rare exception when a deep closer gets a clear rail-run in a seven horse field--let alone a 20 horse field.

Had Street Sense been moved off the rail, he'd have to circle around the entire field, as there was a crush of horses occupying paths two through five.

It's one thing to save ground....but, even in a much smaller field, it's rare when you can save every inch of ground without consequence.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The story behind the story of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
May 9, 2007

STREET SENSE may have been a clear-cut winner of America's most famous race on Saturday May 5, but he was also the beneficiary of good fortune rarely seen in a race of such magnitude.

In the Kentucky Derby's 20-horse field—which is much larger than any other American race— Street Sense gained ground effortlessly from 19th to 3rd position during the middle stages of the ten-furlong event while jockey Calvin Borel steered him along a vacant inner rail path, a path that even a Rolls Royce could have gone through.

Borel, whose nickname around the racetrack is Calvin Bo-Rail, is a certifiable rail runner. Once out of the starting gate, Mr. Bo-Rail's first instinct is quite like his second and third: angle inside, take possession of the rail and ride the shortest distance to the finish line whenever that is remotely possible.

By way of example, Borel used his persistent rail-riding tactics to win the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs by 10 lengths last November. More recently, he employed an identical riding strategy to help Street Sense win the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his 2007 debut—skimming the rail around the final turn through a nail-biting stretch drive, narrowly defeating the wide-running ANY GIVEN SATURDAY.

So, let's be honest about this. Street Sense was a beautifully prepared Thoroughbred who looked strong enough to have won the 2007 Kentucky Derby without being so fortunate. But, before we dismiss any other outcome, we should realize that front-running HARD SPUN ran a dynamite race and racing has a way of making fools of people who assume the outcome is as obvious as it may have seemed on first view.

Winning horseplayers know from bitter experience that the racetrack game is a matter of trips and mistakes as much as pure ability and superior conditioning.

Street Sense didn't need any gifts. He had already demonstrated that he was the horse to beat in this Derby and had expressed his affinity for the Churchill Downs' racing surface with his Breeders' Cup Juvenile romp. Yet, in an overcrowded 20-horse field, with a jockey known by his peers for his penchant to save precious ground on tight-turning, relatively narrow American racetracks (Churchill Downs is a one-mile oval), one has to wonder what all the other jockeys were doing while Calvin Bo-Rail was turning the 133rd Derby into his own private tour de force.

Indeed, only journeyman jockey Mario Pino, who rode a great race aboard Hard Spun in his first Kentucky Derby, and relative newcomer Julien Leparoux, who was riding in his second, seemed to appreciate the value of staying on the inside. All the other high-priced and higher profile Derby jockeys acted as if the inside running lanes were going to swallow them whole.

Quite the opposite was true. Through most of the Derby Day racing card, dozens of riders reported to their respective trainers that the rail was faster than any other path on the main dirt track! This happens every so often on American dirt racing surfaces. Biases do occur, especially after heavy machinery is employed to smooth out the surface and boost the drying out process following a heavy rainstorm.

It rained quite a bit in Louisville, Kentucky on the Thursday night and Friday before the race. The heavy rollers did their job. This no doubt pleased Calvin Borel. You saw his exuberance after the race was won. He was tickled pink by the easy trip he was able to execute and the solid, smooth performance he and Street Sense had put together when it counted most. At the same time, is there any doubt that all the other riders in the race knew they had egg on their faces after looking at the video replays?

Kudos go to trainer Carl Nafzger for his brilliant handling of the Derby winner through much of the past year as well as his finely tuned workout regimen during the final few weeks. Praise must also go of course to the horse, who is now the only American Thoroughbred with a chance to sweep the coveted Triple Crown for the first time since 1978.

As for Calvin Borel, even a beleaguered President of the United States, whose judgment calls have left him with many critics, couldn't get this one wrong. President Bush saw Borel's Derby masterpiece and promptly invited him to pay homage to the Queen of England at a White House state dinner convened on Monday in Her Majesty's honor.

Sometimes the rail is more than the shortest distance between two points; sometimes it can be one man's historic path to glory. Just ask Calvin Borel.

Next Week, a look ahead at the horses who may make the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 19 a tougher race for Street Sense.

Okay I just read the entire article and what was the good fortune?

That no one else blocked the rail? That the rail was golden? I dunno something about the rail I guess.

One problem with theory that SS was fortunate is that the pace did not favor closers, it was really a moderate 1:11+ which should have set up well for a front runner, HS finished well and it took a very swift closing fraction to beat him. I think WIld/Crazy was the only other horse to run sub 25 in the final fraction and he was e.g. 0.4 sec slower than SS if my calc are correct.

So maybe he was just better at closing?

Will still try to beat SS on Sat, though.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

EG---if the pace was really as tepid as you say---the horses who sat 2nd, 3rd, and 4th off that early pace all wouldn't have all been practically eased and finishing no better than 17th place.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

EG---if the pace was really as tepid as you say---the horses who sat 2nd, 3rd, and 4th off that early pace all wouldn't have all been practically eased and finishing no better than 17th place.

Or alternatively, these horses are not that good. How would one be able to tell the difference? Was the pace real hot or were the horses not that good? Is there a way to tell? A daily variant? Perhaps but 10f on dirt is only run 2 or 3x a year so we dont really have much data pts. to go on.

Its like an age old question: does good pitching beat good hitting? Well how do we know? If this guy strikes out was it a good pitcher or a bad batter? Both? Does defense win football games? Or was the offense that bad? We could go on and on..

Had this discussion a few days ago on the PA forum. No one responded to my rhetorical question of how to determine which it was..

In terms of history, 1:11+ is not hot (the half mile in 46+ was). If memory serves only one horse has gone sub 1:10 and won (Spend a Buck); several have gone 1:10+ and won..But 1:11+ is prolly about in the middle. You dont have to look at it in terms of history, but was the track playing that slow...?


BTW: I read your post 27 after I posted and that post is a better and more insightful version of what Davidowitz is trying to say. If that was the summary of his piece I prolly wouldnt have wrote that.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Or alternatively, these horses are not that good. How would one be able to tell the difference? Was the pace real hot or were the horses not that good? Is there a way to tell?

I think its a judgement call, and you have to look at the given circumstances and try to make a guess, where they not good or were they pace victims, or a combination of both. I say it was both.

In my way of looking at it, if it was a tepid pace then even some of these horses that perhaps aren't so good would have held on better, and not faded so badly. Can they all really be SO bad that the would immediately beat such a hasty retreat giving up massive amounts of ground in the final part of the race? Maybe they were a cut below the top class in the race, but because they all retreated so badly I am more inclined to think that a swift pace aided them significantly in their retreats.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Curlin will get plenty of support in Baltimore. He had raced only three times in his career before the Derby, and although he had won them all impressively, his lack of seasoning figured to hurt him in a 20-horse scramble. Probably it did. Curlin encountered traffic trouble twice in the run to the first turn, failed to secure a good early position, and yet turned in a creditable effort to finish third. He is clearly a talented colt. But he has already done so much in so little time - advancing from maiden company to the 3-year-old classics in the span of three months - that it seems unlikely he can take another huge leap forward and make up the eight lengths by which Street Span beat him. It is more likely that he will regress.

Who is Street Span?

That is the stuff that my AOL flags everytime I log on.... Oppsss that Spam... Never Mind.....