Street Sense- should he or shouldn't he?

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Nafzger has his sights set on the BC Classic. A horse that wins the BC Juvenile/ KY Derby and the BC Classic could be approaching legend.
Where a horse that runs in a now meaningless Belmont and never going to run 12f on the dirt EVER again... gets nothing but "if only he had won the Preakness"

he didn't so now the race is going to be replaced by NBC with Tennis or something else worthless...

btw..

Commendable was probably the worst Belmont winner I can remember.
couldn't wait to toss him in his next start.

He's in Korea not sure why but he's in South Korea

it'll probably be the 'finals of the heads up poker tournament.. doesn't matter anyway, the Belmont is on ABC.(at least it's scheduled to be)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

But even if the horse is doing just fine, I think that Nafzger has earned the right to know better for the horse than any of us. A lot of people criticized his plan to use only two preps. But he knew his horse. If he thinks the horse would be better served with a break now to point for the fall races, again, I think Nafzger has earned that right. There are plenty of other guys that have come along recently and been flashes in the pan and haven't earned that right to be unquestioned. I believe Nafzger has though.

The thing is that the Belmont is a mighty demanding race. In addition to the recent winners that Cannon listed, we could go even deeper. Look at horses that have run in all three TC races over the past 10 years. The list of horses that have won at least one TC race while running in all three over the past 10 years is:

Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Victory Gallop
Charismatic
Monarchos
Point Given
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Afleet Alex

That's 11 horses. Eight of the 11 didn't finish the year. This is a fact. Seven of those eight didn't run past the Belmont. This is a fact. As a group, the 11 horses went on to win a total of three races as 3yo's post TC. I've acknowledged in past posts that I understand that some of it was due to factors besides injury. And I do recognize that five of those horses did come back in later years and win some really good races. But recent history is not on the side of seeing either Curlin or Street Sense or Hard Spun do anything more this year should they run back in the Belmont. Only three of those on the list made it to the BC (Victory Gallop, War Emblem and Funny Cide).

This is the same argument that you made when you were arguing that Curlin should skip the Preakness. How did that one turn out?
Let's say Street Sense skipped the Belmont....took another week off....and ran in the Stephen Foster. Would that magically help his chances of winning the Jim Dandy months from now?
Look at the horses that HAVE skipped one of the TC races (Empire Maker, Jazil etc.). Have they done a lot better?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Look at the horses that HAVE skipped one of the TC races (Empire Maker, Jazil etc.). Have they done a lot better?

Well Jazil skipped the Preakness and then won the Belmont. . .

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

This is the same argument that you made when you were arguing that Curlin should skip the Preakness. How did that one turn out?
Let's say Street Sense skipped the Belmont....took another week off....and ran in the Stephen Foster. Would that magically help his chances of winning the Jim Dandy months from now?
Look at the horses that HAVE skipped one of the TC races (Empire Maker, Jazil etc.). Have they done a lot better?

I said that I thought Curlin should skip the Preakness for his LONG TERM GOOD. I also said that he was good enough to win the race and he was indeed my pick to win it. So what is your point with that question? I also think that if Street Sense or Curlin is to run in the Belmont, they are both good enough to win it and one of them probably will. But again, I'm talking about the LONG TERM ramifications, not the short. I felt the exact way about Afleet Alex. U care to tell me how that one turned out? I felt the exact way about Point Given, Giacomo, Monarchos? Sure, PG went on to win the Haskell and Travers. Those were the only two races for those four horses combined.

It's not the timing alone of the race that concerns me. I wouldn't care if he ran back two weeks after the Preakness. It's the distance at the end of a trying period.

[citycat]

Street Sense worked 4f in 49.00 (14/28) this morning at CD. Thought he looked good but not great (thats very subjective I know). If it were me I would skip the Belmont and maybe do the Stephen Foster then the Travers, JMO.

[slotdirt]

If the horse is sound, run him. Horse racing needs a bit of rivalry.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Well Jazil skipped the Preakness and then won the Belmont. . .

Right, but KG seems to think that if a horse only competes in two out of the three TC races, his chances of a great post-TC career are greatly enhanced. My point was simply that both Jazil and Empire Maker were horses that won a TC event BUT only competed in two out of the three. Yet there post-TC careers are/were not exactly spectacular.

[ArlJim78]

If Street Sense does go to the Belmont and for whatever reason throws in a clunker, you'd have another ESPN expert writing a column criticizing Nafzger for sending him after having admitted that his primary focus had been on the derby in the first place. I can just see it "Nafzger should have known that his horse needed a break after two hard races..." blah,blah,blah.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If Street Sense does go to the Belmont and for whatever reason throws in a clunker, you'd have another ESPN expert writing a column criticizing Nafzger for sending him after having admitted that his primary focus had been on the derby in the first place. I can just see it "Nafzger should have known that his horse needed a break after two hard races..." blah,blah,blah.

yeah, that's true.
then again, street sense has never really run a clunker. BUT, we all know how useful monday morning quarterbacking is.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I said that I thought Curlin should skip the Preakness for his LONG TERM GOOD. I also said that he was good enough to win the race and he was indeed my pick to win it. So what is your point with that question? I also think that if Street Sense or Curlin is to run in the Belmont, they are both good enough to win it and one of them probably will. But again, I'm talking about the LONG TERM ramifications, not the short. I felt the exact way about Afleet Alex. U care to tell me how that one turned out? I felt the exact way about Point Given, Giacomo, Monarchos? Sure, PG went on to win the Haskell and Travers. Those were the only two races for those four horses combined.

It's not the timing alone of the race that concerns me. I wouldn't care if he ran back two weeks after the Preakness. It's the distance at the end of a trying period.

Here is my point. Curlin had the opportunity to win a big race right then. His connections would have been foolish to pass on that opportunity just because of some nonsensical notion that skipping that race would somehow help win some other big race down the road. As you know, I am not just saying this in retrospect now that I know he won. I told you that at the time. Horses can get injured/sick at any time. Hell you could skip the TC races and the horse could break his leg in a workout the next day. If you have a healthy and fit horse and there is a G1 million dollar classic that he could win right then, take your shot.
I can tell you right now that I don't think Point Given or Giacomo's careers were ruined by running in all three TC races. Point Given won the last two, and that did not prevent him from winning the Haskell and the Travers as you think it should have. And Giacomo? I highly doubt if that horse would have ever won another G1 no matter WHAT campaign they set for him.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If Street Sense does go to the Belmont and for whatever reason throws in a clunker, you'd have another ESPN expert writing a column criticizing Nafzger for sending him after having admitted that his primary focus had been on the derby in the first place. I can just see it "Nafzger should have known that his horse needed a break after two hard races..." blah,blah,blah.

King Glorious writes for ESPN?

[Buffymommy]

He worked out this morning...

Street Sense

Date: May 30, 2007
Track: CHURCHILL DOWNS
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:00 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 14/28

Good enough to go or is he getting tired?

[XIIPointStables]

If he's healthy and happy, run him.

Davidowitz chimes in on the DRF Plus column with the same thoughts.

I don't want to copy and paste the whole thing as it's a pay for read, but I liked this...

"At the bottom line, should all three of the Derby-Preakness stars run in the Belmont, the world would be treated to the most popular three-horse matchup of the television age."

[justindew]

Here are my two cents:

Right after the Preakness, I thought Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun would skip the Belmont for a variety of reasons, and I thought the connections of all three would be correct to pass. I really don't remember why I thought that, but it probably had something to do with the horses needing a rest.

Now, I feel differently. I have no idea at all why Nafgzer would pass, unless he thinks 12 furlongs is too far for Street Sense. He rested the horse all spring, so I don't think he's "over the top", as they say. There aren't many million-dollar races for three-year-olds, so why pass?

I thought Curlin needed a rest after the Derby, but I was clearly wrong. So I'm hesistant to say the same thing now. I think some horses are good enough to do things that most of the current generation can't do. Curlin looks like he is one of those horses.....although my gut tells me he needs a rest.

As for Hard Spun, I just think Curlin and Street Sense are better. After watching the Preakness a few more times, I don't get the feeling that Hard Spun is tired or anything. He had six weeks before the Derby, so I feel he can run his race once more before taking a break.

So, if it were up to me, I would run Street Sense and Hard Spun, and then give them a rest. I would rest Curlin until the Haskell or the Jim Dandy, and then point for the Travers and the other big fall races.

What really surprised me was Nobiz Like Shobiz being withdrawn from Belmont consideration. I wonder if something is wrong with him.

[Buffymommy]

I think if Carl doesn't think he has a shot to win, he won't run. That is the way he seems to be as I don't know the man personally.

I guess I can respect that. Not what I would like to see, but it is their horse.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Look, I 'd love to see Street Sense run as it would add that much more to the race, but I still have a problem with the initial article. Finley works for ESPN, the company that pre-empts horse racing for any sport they can, including softball.

They have a stake in the success of horse racing, yet they do very little to bring it to our homes. There were many stakes this weekend, including one of the most prestegious races in country, The Met Mile. Would it have killed ESPN to show the stretch run and results on Sportscenter?

I see the point of the article, racing needs rivalries and it would help the sport. But to call out Nafzger, like he is somehow responsible for doing this is absurd. Where was Finley when so many talented runners in the last few years have been prematurely retired? Where is his article when trainers scratch out of stake races because their horse carries a pound or two more than they think they should carry?

He was writing about baseball.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i read that this morning, when i was at 'work'. i think he should run, but i've said that all along....it'll be june, and only his fifth race--why not run? only one derby winner, was he supposed to have a walkover in the preakness? i mean, what was the point behind anyone else running, they couldn't win the tc--going by nafzgers logic that is.

well if i were lucky nuff 2 have him i wouldnt run him. it doesnt matter how many races 2 date hes had this year, to run all 3 in the TC is extremely taxing and he was basically all out last time as was beaten by the better horse. i see no reason to burn him out when theres plenty of other potential pay days down the road. of course i could be wrong and eatin some crow but if they decide to run him right now in elmont against curlin i think hell get dusted

[SuffolkGirl]

I think it is up to the trainer. He knows this horse and has the horse's best interest in mind. He is not trying to burnish his own image for anyone.

While I agree that the sport could use a great rivalry and I would love to see one, I think one should think of the horse first, not the sport.

I believe it was Steve Byk who brought this up on ATRAB, but SS is approaching the "too valuable to run" point. Who knows what the conditions of his insurance policy are.....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Look, I 'd love to see Street Sense run as it would add that much more to the race, but I still have a problem with the initial article. Finley works for ESPN, the company that pre-empts horse racing for any sport they can, including softball.

They have a stake in the success of horse racing, yet they do very little to bring it to our homes. There were many stakes this weekend, including one of the most prestegious races in country, The Met Mile. Would it have killed ESPN to show the stretch run and results on Sportscenter?

I see the point of the article, racing needs rivalries and it would help the sport. But to call out Nafzger, like he is somehow responsible for doing this is absurd. Where was Finley when so many talented runners in the last few years have been prematurely retired? Where is his article when trainers scratch out of stake races because their horse carries a pound or two more than they think they should carry?

you make excellent points. if its going to be such a great public benefit for the sport to have Street Sense in the Belmont, wouldn't it also benefit the sport to include a brief one minute racing update as part of the regular sports broadcast? I'm talking on a regular weekly basis and not only on the eve of one of the TC races.
My god, for baseball, basketball and football they beat those stories to death over and over, i can;t even watch it because its so boring.

[Unstable]

Isn't this the same writer who proclaimed, "with relative certainty," that Street Sense would not win the Kentucky Derby.

The argument that Street Sense should run in the Belmont because it is a $1 million race makes no sense to me if his trainer believes that it would take too much out of him for races later in the year. Races with purses totally much, much more.

Everyone seems to believe that Street Sense has no chance in the Breeders' Cup Classic (against a returning champion). Many of the same people believed that he had no chance in the Kentucky Derby. However, there is no guarantee that Invasor will make it to the BC. Or that he will be the same horse that he was last year, or earlier this year in Dubai.

Sure, I'd love to see Street Sense in the Belmont, but not if it means not seeing him later in the year.

Didn't Carl Nafzger win the Derby and the Classic with Unbridled? If he thinks he can do that again with Street Sense, that's what I really want to see.