Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1597
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$819.65

************************************************** *

Aug 12 selections:

8) 1,2,4,6
9) 7,8
10) 1,6,8
11) 6,9,10

$1 each, 4x2x3x3=$72

I had the 6-7-6-10 winning ticket, but with three 5-2 shots and a 3-5 shot, along with several scratches sharing the payoff, it paid just $119.70 for $1. Still, way better than a win parlay or what it would have paid with Saratoga's 25% takeout.

Result for Aug 12: +47.80

Overall results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

--Dunbar

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I had the 6-7-6-10 winning ticket, but with three 5-2 shots and a 3-5 shot, along with several scratches sharing the payoff, it paid just $119.70 for $1. Still, way better than a win parlay or what it would have paid with Saratoga's 25% takeout.

Result for Aug 12: +47.80

Overall results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

--Dunbar

Doesn't look like it is getting the support, 18k today and hilarious Arlington did twice that.

The payout is kinda sketchy also with a $25 horse and two wide open fields.

[ArlJim78]

8-17
i'm going to play these numbers, in various combinations between 50cents and $3. when i have the totals i'll post it.

7) 1 5 6 7
8) 1 3 6 9
9) 3 5 9
10) 2 3 6 7

[Scav]

7: 5
8: 3,4,6,7
9: 2,3,4,5
10: 2,3

$16 per 50 cents

[ArlJim78]

taking a stab

9) 2 9
10) 2 4 6 11
11) 1 2 5 7 8 12
12) 2 6 9 11
$96

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scav

Doesn't look like it is getting the support, 18k today and hilarious Arlington did twice that.

"hilarious" is not the word I'd choose. I'd call it tragic. Horseplayers will get what they deserve for not supporting this 4% Pick-4--we can expect a future of unrelenting high takeout. Anyone suggesting that lower takeout will result in significantly higher pools will be laughed at.

I'm continuing to put between $200-$400 daily into the Ellis Pick-4 pools in the faint hope that the rest of the racing community will wake up. If everyone on this site alone pitched in the last couple of weeks (closing day is Sept 3), maybe something can still be salvaged for the future.

--Dunbar

[cmorioles]

The problem with Ellis is they went too low and a lot of places aren't taking the bet.

I don't play many exotics, but I've been playing this one just for the principle of the thing.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The problem with Ellis is they went too low and a lot of places aren't taking the bet.

I don't play many exotics, but I've been playing this one just for the principle of the thing.

I know that's contributed to the problem, but that doesn't explain a drop from a 65K the 2nd week of the offer to 30-40K and then to the ridiculous 18K this week.

I never played a Pick-4 in my life before Ellis and I almost never bet maiden races, but this was so obviously important that I jumped on it. Glad you, scav, and ArlJim are supporting it, too.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

I've been playing it, Dunbar, and I don't see why more don't either. Yeah some of the races aren't great but they're handicappable and entertaining nontheless. I think the problem is there's just only so much money to go around on a Wednesday/Thursday when Saratoga and Del Mar are running... they did $56k yesterday and $31k today, not bad at all.

Hit it both days this weekend for nice scores, on top of it.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I've been playing it, Dunbar, and I don't see why more don't either. Yeah some of the races aren't great but they're handicappable and entertaining nontheless. I think the problem is there's just only so much money to go around on a Wednesday/Thursday when Saratoga and Del Mar are running... they did $56k yesterday and $31k today, not bad at all.

Hit it both days this weekend for nice scores, on top of it.

Phil, glad to hear you've been playing it. (congrats on the hits, too!) It seems to me any sensible bettor should be playing this pretty hard. First, it's a great deal in its own right--offering a minimal vig to overcome; second, playing this Pick-4 is an investment in the future of horse betting.

I hope more bettors pile on during the last few days. I doubt Ellis (or anyone) will be overly impressed with $30K pools). But if they can finish on an upswing into the $50K range, it would maybe be encouraging.

I already bet my $300 into today's Pick-4. I hope I'm less than 1% of the entire pool!

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

Result for Aug 16: -$157.50.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1826.50
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$927.45

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 22:

50c each way:

6) 1,6,9,10
7) 1,3,6
8) 1,5,6,8,9
9) 1,3,4,6,9

4x3x5x5=300 ways, $150 total bet

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

previous results:
Total bets: $1826.50
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$927.45

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 22:

50c each way:

6) 1,6,9,10
7) 1,3,6
8) 1,5,6,8,9
9) 1,3,4,6,9

4x3x5x5=300 ways, $150 total bet

Result for Aug 22: 6-6-9-3 paid $94.75. So I lost $55.25 on my $150 ticket.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1976.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$984.70

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 23:

$1 each way

6) 5
7) 2,4,5,7,8
8) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9
9) 3,6,8,9

1x5x7x4 = 140 ways, $140 ticket

My single in the 6th race, Golden Hare, is a Steve Asmussen 8-yr-old that has won 13 of it's last 14 races going back to last September. The one loser in that stretch was a nose loss with Garrett Gomez aboard at Churchill on May 1.

--Dunbar

[PeteMugg]

Just got home, had to watch Golden Hare race. She was my single as well.

5/2,4,5/6,8/2,5 Six bucks

I try to hit these going much shorter.

[infield_line]

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by infield_line

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

Definitely some cheap races that are tough to call. But I don't think I agree about the sharp turns.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by infield_line

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

When the favs fail at Saratoga, it's simply the Graveyard of Favorites. Del Mar's synthetic surface is causing havoc with cappers. But with Ellis it's somehow the track's fault?

I've said before that I don't like maiden races on any track, but the cheap claimers and low level allowance horses at Ellis appear to run reasonably true at Ellis.

My own poor results are what they are--a fairly small sample of an attempt to do some quick capping. I certainly don't blame Ellis for my poor results.

It's certainly possible that on any given day, the 25% takeout at Saratoga is easier to crack than the 4% at Ellis. My opinion is that the Ellis 4% bet needs to be supported regardless. Otherwise, the wrong message is being sent to the industry.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

I think something that definitely needs to be taken into consideration is the growth of other betting pools @ Ellis since the 4% take-out was implemented. I would expect pool growth in many or all bets in races involved in the pk 4. If someone gets knocked out of the pick 4 in the first or second leg chances are they will probably bet on races in the rest of the sequence because they must have had some bet-worthy opinion of those races and we all know how frustrating it can be when you cap for hours and drop a good amount of money into a serial bet and get knocked out early.

I also don't think that Ellis's seeming lack of success with the pk4 is indicative of how lower take-out would be welcomed industry wide. I am certain that if NYRA did the same thing the pools would grow exponentially. There could be 1% take-out and I probably wouldn't play the Ellis pick 4 because I just won't dump that kind of money into a pool at a track that I have no experience at. I admire what Dunbar and others are doing by playing the Ellis pk4 but I think that until the major tracks find some reason to lower take-out, experiments at lower level tracks won't provide any incentive to or evidence that lowering the vig is a good move from a business perspective.

[SniperSB23]

I threw in a small ticket for my good deed of the day:

1,3,WT,2,3,7,WT,1,WT,4,7

[ArlJim78]

i haven't done well yet at Ellis either, but I haven't chalked it up to anything other than my own lack of experience there. i have made several easy mistakes that i only caught after the fact. its not like i have a background of experience playing there so its a little new. and since i've only played pk4's, those are also not wagers that are a cinch anywhere.

what i can say is that it seems to play as fair as anywhere else, i'm by no means throwing in the towel and will be better prepared for the next meet since I think this one is about over.

its like any other track with cheaper stock, you have to dial in your handicapping accordingly.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1976.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$984.70

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 23:

$1 each way

6) 5
7) 2,4,5,7,8
8) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9
9) 3,6,8,9

1x5x7x4 = 140 ways, $140 ticket

My single in the 6th race, Golden Hare, is a Steve Asmussen 8-yr-old that has won 13 of it's last 14 races going back to last September. The one loser in that stretch was a nose loss with Garrett Gomez aboard at Churchill on May 1.

Golden Hare came through fine, but I missed the #2 in the 9th.

Result for Aug 23: -$140

Overall results:
Total bets: $2116.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1124.70

Not thrilled with today's races; two MSW's with mostly 1st-time-starters:

50c each way:

7) 1,3,5,6
8) 2
9) 1,5,6,7
10) all

4x1x4x9=144; $72 ticket

--Dunbar