Shakespeare

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Is that the same Crossing the Line that recently photoed Becrux at Del Mar?

He beat Becrux by a length and blew by him at the end. . . with his style I'm not sure that the lengths he beat Becrux by indicate that Crossing the Line is only that much better than him. . . Shakespeare's probably the best miler in North America now but Crossing the Line isn't far behind. . . Unfortunately, Crossing the Line probably isn't going to the BC so it's all moot. . .

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You may be right in the Mile, I have no clue who they have. In the Turf though I think Shakespeare could beat our best but doubt he can beat the best Europe will bring over.

We all have a tendency to say " he can't beat the Euros " but sometimes the Euros aren't that special and often our milers are better than our distance horses ( there's a shock ). I'm not particularly up on the Euro milers, though Maduro was their best and he's now injured ( and wasn't pointing to the Mile anyway ), and if George Washington ends up being one of their better entrants I would certainly take my chances with Shakespeare.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

He beat Becrux by a length and blew by him at the end. . . with his style I'm not sure that the lengths he beat Becrux by indicate that Crossing the Line is only that much better than him. . . Shakespeare's probably the best miler in North America now but Crossing the Line isn't far behind. . . Unfortunately, Crossing the Line probably isn't going to the BC so it's all moot. . .

He actually beat Becrux by three quarters of a length and while he's possibly a superior horse, and appears to have room to improve, he's done very little noteworthy in his career to deserve the accolades he seems to be getting.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We all have a tendency to say " he can't beat the Euros " but sometimes the Euros aren't that special and often our milers are better than our distance horses ( there's a shock ). I'm not particularly up on the Euro milers, though Maduro was their best and he's now injured ( and wasn't pointing to the Mile anyway ), and if George Washington ends up being one of their better entrants I would certainly take my chances with Shakespeare.

I don't even have to know who is coming in the Turf to feel pretty confident that we won't crack the top three. Who the heck is going to get there? English Channel? The Tin Man? Grand Courtier? I think Shakespeare could beat all of them but don't feel confident he'd be able to stretch out four furlongs and beat the Euros. He certainly would be a deserving favorite in the Mile.

[SentToStud]

Sometimes in the BC Mile, it's tough to see which Euros are going to be tough. LAst Tycoon, Barethea, Dome Driver were all pretty big number winners. Antonio Pius was a close 2nd to Singletary. I remember that Super paying $110k. I didn't have it. Last year it was kind of silly that they ran George Washington in the Classic instead of the Mile. Who knows how he would have done. GW and Lingarri have their preps coming up. A 3yo filly - Darjina (sp?) just beat older males in France. Miesque, Ridgewood Pearl and Six Perfections all won the BCM as 3 yo fillies, I believe. To me, the BCM is a crapshoot. Maybe that's because I cannot recall ever getting the race right.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't even have to know who is coming in the Turf to feel pretty confident that we won't crack the top three. Who the heck is going to get there? English Channel? The Tin Man? Grand Courtier? I think Shakespeare could beat all of them but don't feel confident he'd be able to stretch out four furlongs and beat the Euros. He certainly would be a deserving favorite in the Mile.

It's hard to believe that whichever Euro routers show up that the mediocrities we have going long will beat them. Look at Doctor Dino. He was hardly upper echelon over there. Somehow I would guess Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato could handle him. I have no idea whether Soldier of Fortune, Zambazi Sun, Lawman or the mighty Authorized are coming.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He actually beat Becrux by three quarters of a length and while he's possibly a superior horse, and appears to have room to improve, he's done very little noteworthy in his career to deserve the accolades he seems to be getting.

accolades? at least 3/4 of betting population probably would not even know who he is and what he has done. I bet if we walked around the last weekend of saratoga and asked people who crossing the line was we would get a collective blank stare.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Is that the same Crossing the Line that recently photoed Becrux at Del Mar? How, please tell us, did Becrux fare yesterday?

As for Silver Tree.......why not Sabre Baby?

U are better than that Andy. U know that u can't compare how many lengths one horse beats another with how another does against that same horse and use that as conclusive proof of which one is better. And to say why not Sabre Baby? Maybe because Sabre Baby has never even been in the money in a stakes race and has career earnings of just over $300k while Silver Tree has won four times, placed four times and showed twice in graded stakes, has won over a third of his career races, been in the money in 67% of his career races and has earned just under $1.5 million. On second thought, those two are a very good comparison. I bow to u again.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U are better than that Andy. U know that u can't compare how many lengths one horse beats another with how another does against that same horse and use that as conclusive proof of which one is better. And to say why not Sabre Baby? Maybe because Sabre Baby has never even been in the money in a stakes race and has career earnings of just over $300k while Silver Tree has won four times, placed four times and showed twice in graded stakes, has won over a third of his career races, been in the money in 67% of his career races and has earned just under $1.5 million. On second thought, those two are a very good comparison. I bow to u again.

I actually completely disagree with you and think the comparison of Becrux is very legitimate. Becrux is a fairly consistent and proven horse. Crossing the Line beat him by less than a length and Shakespeare dusted him ( in a race Becrux won last year ). I place a great emphasis on level of competition when analyzing turf horses. God knows I don't use speed figures for turf races.

Obviously I know that Silver Tree is better than Sabre Baby ( and was only using him as an example because I mocked him earlier this summer at Siro's ). However, obviously you don't know how far from Shakespeare Silver Tree is. If you think a perfect trip win over Drum Major places him anywhere close to the upper echelon of turf horses then you are out of your mind. Silver Tree has proven conclusively over his career that while he's an admirable horse he is nothing special whatsoever.

[ArlJim78]

as much as I am a fan of Crossing The Line, I would have to rate him behind Shakespeare at the moment. Shakespeare just seems to be freakishly good, like a turf version of Ghostzapper almost.

Maybe we haven't seen the best yet of Crossing The Line, which is why I said at the moment. He's done everything asked of him so far, so who knows.
But winning a top class turf mile is not an easy thing to do especially with such a deep field like in the WO mile. There were some good horses in that race who fired their best shots, Kip Deville and Remarkable News for example, and Shakespeare simply walked by them.
it would be nice if they were ever able to hook up against each other.

[mp3]

sheakespeare did not walk bt kip deville. He was under a drive from the 1/8 pole to the wire. He had a perfect trip along the rail and was very fortunate to have gotten through. He also was getting 7lbs from kip who had a trip that does not exactly fit his running style. at scale weights and kip getting an outside stalking trip there will be nothing between these two. The shorter stretch at monmouth will also benefit Kip. I am all over kip in the futures at this point.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by mp3

sheakespeare did not walk bt kip deville. He was under a drive from the 1/8 pole to the wire. He had a perfect trip along the rail and was very fortunate to have gotten through. He also was getting 7lbs from kip who had a trip that does not exactly fit his running style. at scale weights and kip getting an outside stalking trip there will be nothing between these two. The shorter stretch at monmouth will also benefit Kip. I am all over kip in the futures at this point.

good luck, you'll need it if you're trying to get Kip Deville to win the BC mile.
If the shorter stretch at Monmouth benefits him so much, why did he recently place third on that track in a grade 3 race?

[SentToStud]

I agree w/ mp3. Also, you can't lose the fact that Remarkable News was the 2nd favorite in the race yesterday. A nice horse, sure but he's certainly not scaring anyone.

That said, Shakes is very nice.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I actually completely disagree with you and think the comparison of Becrux is very legitimate. Becrux is a fairly consistent and proven horse. Crossing the Line beat him by less than a length and Shakespeare dusted him ( in a race Becrux won last year ). I place a great emphasis on level of competition when analyzing turf horses. God knows I don't use speed figures for turf races.

Obviously I know that Silver Tree is better than Sabre Baby ( and was only using him as an example because I mocked him earlier this summer at Siro's ). However, obviously you don't know how far from Shakespeare Silver Tree is. If you think a perfect trip win over Drum Major places him anywhere close to the upper echelon of turf horses then you are out of your mind. Silver Tree has proven conclusively over his career that while he's an admirable horse he is nothing special whatsoever.

Ok then how about this. Shakespeare was in a full drive to beat Kip Deville by a length. Back in March, Kip Deville beat what I thought was a tougher field than the Woodbine field when he won the Kilroe at Santa Anita (Silent Name, Milk it Mick, After Market, Three Valleys) by a neck. The fourth place finisher in that race was Porto Santo. That day, Porto Santo was beaten by 1 1/4 lengths by Kip Deville. When Crossing the Line won the race at Del Mar, he beat Porto Santo by 2 1/4 lengths. So since Kip is 1 1/4 lengths better than Porto Santo and CTL is 2 1/4 lengths better, according to your logic, that makes CTL a length better than Kip.....the same distance that Shakespear beat him by. So then CTL and Shakespeare are equal.......if u are going to judge them by how much they beat comparative horses by.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok then how about this. Shakespeare was in a full drive to beat Kip Deville by a length. Back in March, Kip Deville beat what I thought was a tougher field than the Woodbine field when he won the Kilroe at Santa Anita (Silent Name, Milk it Mick, After Market, Three Valleys) by a neck. The fourth place finisher in that race was Porto Santo. That day, Porto Santo was beaten by 1 1/4 lengths by Kip Deville. When Crossing the Line won the race at Del Mar, he beat Porto Santo by 2 1/4 lengths. So since Kip is 1 1/4 lengths better than Porto Santo and CTL is 2 1/4 lengths better, according to your logic, that makes CTL a length better than Kip.....the same distance that Shakespear beat him by. So then CTL and Shakespeare are equal.......if u are going to judge them by how much they beat comparative horses by.

Be careful with that Porto Santo analogy. He had absolutely no place to run in the Del Mar Mile and the decision with CTL would have probably been much, much closer had Nakatani not been completely stymied for over a furlong.

Also, just my opinion, the way you broke down your analysis is nice, but comparing finishing positions in races that were five months apart is a very dangerous idea. I think you missed Andy's point, which was that level of competition has to be taken into consideration, but I missed where he said that margin of victory is the deciding factor.

NT

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Be careful with that Porto Santo analogy. He had absolutely no place to run in the Del Mar Mile and the decision with CTL would have probably been much, much closer had Nakatani not been completely stymied for over a furlong.

Also, just my opinion, the way you broke down your analysis is nice, but comparing finishing positions in races that were five months apart is a very dangerous idea. I think you missed Andy's point, which was that level of competition has to be taken into consideration, but I missed where he said that margin of victory is the deciding factor.

NT

I don't think margin of victory is really that relevant of a factor at all. I only brought that up because he used how they finished againt Becrux as the first argument of comparison. I agree that level of competition is one of the biggest factors so in that regard, using Porto Santo is not much different than using Becrux.

In that Del Mar race, I just watched it again and I don't see where Porto Santo's trip was so bad. The rider was riding throughout the stretch. I think had CTL had a better trip and not had to switch from the inside to the far outside in the stretch, he could have won by even more.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We all have a tendency to say " he can't beat the Euros " but sometimes the Euros aren't that special and often our milers are better than our distance horses ( there's a shock ). I'm not particularly up on the Euro milers, though Maduro was their best and he's now injured ( and wasn't pointing to the Mile anyway ), and if George Washington ends up being one of their better entrants I would certainly take my chances with Shakespeare.

Agree with Andy completely with his sentiments regarding the Mile. All you have to do is look at last years race. The winner, Miesques Approval, was nothing special. Never won another Grade(Group) I in his career. He's no where near the same quality horse as Shakespeare.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by rgustafson

Agree with Andy completely with his sentiments regarding the Mile. All you have to do is look at last years race. The winner, Miesques Approval, was nothing special. Never won another Grade(Group) I in his career. He's no where near the same quality horse as Shakespeare.

There is more than one way to look at this.

How long is the list of Group1/Grade 1 winning horses Shakes beat?

[mp3]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

good luck, you'll need it if you're trying to get Kip Deville to win the BC mile.
If the shorter stretch at Monmouth benefits him so much, why did he recently place third on that track in a grade 3 race?

terribloe analogy. Monmouth race at 1 1/16 and they tried to rate him well off the pace

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He beat 5 grade 1 winning horses in the race yesterday.

That is what makes him a very nice horse.