Why are Hard Spun's Connections so stubborn?

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

He has?

Well he ran 2nd in the Derby at a mile and a quarter and 3rd in the Preakness at a mile and three-sixteeths. Just for kicks, he ran 4th in the Belmont at a mile and a half. No?

[ninetoone]

Is there any chance they would put him in the Sprint?

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're right, you didn't say that exactly. I was wrong. I took it as you pretty sure he could win. my bad.

Okay, no problem. Let's put it this way, as a Hard Spun fan who probably thinks more of him than most, I think he has a better shot at winning the Mile than the Classic, because sadly I don't feel he has much of a shot of winning the Classic.

[geeker2]

Won't Monmouth favor Hard Spun's racing style more so than any other track he has raced on?...and won't it tend to dis-favor Street Sense?

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Won't Monmouth favor Hard Spun's racing style more so than any other track he has raced on?...and won't it tend to dis-favor Street Sense?

It didn't look to help him in the Haskell as AGS blew right by, at a 1 1/8th.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

It didn't look to help him in the Haskell as AGS blew right by, at a 1 1/8th.

True very true..and I was extremely happy as I bet AGS that day..as I recall HS bobbled start a bit..on BC day I would tell Pino to send send send and see what happens...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Okay, no problem. Let's put it this way, as a Hard Spun fan who probably thinks more of him than most, I think he has a better shot at winning the Mile than the Classic, because sadly I don't feel he has much of a shot of winning the Classic.

I like the horse also but think he is up against it in either race. frankly at Monmouth I'd give him a better chance of pulling off the classic than I would seeing him make his turf debut and win the mile.

even though I think he might be best at 8 or 9 furlongs, I kinda agree with what DrugS has said before and that is that his best shot is to just put him on dirt in the classic and send him out there, use his speed and make everyone work out trips and come get him.

[geeker2]

Larry was on ATR yesterday...unless I missed something it sounded like he was 100% heading to the Classic ...

agree with the comment that says send him and make the other figure out how to beat him...his speed is his best asset and the Kings Bishop proved his gameness..

[Bobby Fischer]

I remember when everyone was crying about HS pre derby work.
He might beat all the 3yos in the BC Classic.


We should send him to Pletcher and Allday, and create a turf god in Sunriver's image.


The big guy is about to retire. You need to develop form to win a grass race. The mile70yards is beneath him. The sprint is too quick. Yes he would be better in The Classic as a 4yo, but this is Hard Spun's last run. No time for that.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I understand that his pedigree makes him an attractive posibility to run in the Mile, but I recall three-year-olds Peace Rules and Favorite Trick trying to win the Mile off of turf starts at the end of his two-year-old season and beginning of his three-year-old season ('Rules) and only one turf start three weeks before (Trick). Both were well-backed at the windows. (I know that Peace Rules was 2-1, and I thought that Favorite Trick was either the favorite or about 5-1.)

Even with blazing speed, isn't it asking a little much of him to hold off seasoned turf runners in a race that has almost always supported stalkers and closers?

Additionally, would he get in on points or be selected by the committee if the race is oversubscribed, which sometimes occurs?

While u recall Peace Rules and Favorite Trick, I think about Prized and War Chant. Prized won the BC Turf in his first start on the grass and War Chant won the BC Mile in his second start on grass, after having won the Oak Tree Mile in his grass debut. What about Lure? I am not sure but I think he made his grass debut in the Kelso (2nd) and then won the BC Mile. My point is that if a horse has the talent to do something, it won't matter if it's his first, second, or 20th time on the surface. If the distance of the Mile is his best distance, go for it. I can see him taking the same kind of tactics as Lure and wiring them.

If, however, the choice is between the Sprint, Dirt Mile or Classic, I'd go in the Classic. I agree that his best performance and best chance for a placing will come by jumping out there and making the others adjust to him. The others could make the assumption that he can't last and let Hard Spun coast on the lead just long enough to get brave enough to hold on. I don't think he's got the speed necessary to run with the best sprinters in the world early and I think it would be tougher holding off the best closers in a sprint than it was holding out First Defence.

[Danzig]

porter already got a huge bankroll from selling the rights. then he gets a tremendous bonus with the gr 1 win. win, lose, or draw, he's got a HUGE amount of money from owning and then selling that horse. so, why not try the classic? it won't detract from the deal he's made, he's got his guaranteed bucks....it's only a win situation for him, there is no risk--horse is not going to be his after, he's got the money--why not try for the win?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Hard Spun's had four siblings - and all of them looked a little better on dirt.

Do you people realize that the Breeders Cup Classic is being run at Monmouth Park this year?

If it was run at most any other track - I think a rational case could probably be made for opting for another spot.

Cable Boy, Stormello, and Flying First Class are speed sprinters - I don't think they will be there to harass Hard Spun again...and make him rate - and no good horse looks any more uncomfortable rating than Hard Spun does.

He'll be vulnerable in the polytrack race at TP off his quick early - moderate late race on the sharp cut-back in the King's Bishop. I hope he runs VERY dismally in the TP race - and is "inexplicably" wheeled back to run in the Classic.

I'd love to get a big number on him come race day....and the worse he runs at TP - the less respect he gets from other riders in the race - the more likely he will be unpressured. And, as expectations lower, the more likely he is to finally be ridden correctly and with the proper tactics - and that is by gunning him to the lead (like in the Derby) and hoping the Monmouth Park track is as kind to one-dimensional speed as it was for the vast majority of the summer.

A real good performance by Hard Spun at TP - especially if it comes without being sent - is the absolute most discouraging thing someone who's intruged by him as a Breeders Cup Classic prospect would want to see.

[Cannon Shell]

Hard Spuns chances
Classic- Not very strong
Dirt Mile and 70- Probable favorite(unless Discrete Cat appears)
Sprint- Probably no worse than third choice
Turf Mile- Probably the most unlikely chance

Personally I think that regardless of distance, he is just not as good as Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, AGS, or Curlin. When you factor in the 1 1/4, I dont think he can win the race with Lawyer Ron in it, keeping the pace honest.

The dirt mile and 70 is IMO his greatest chance to win. The field will be moderate (who is out there?) and the distance is probably the closest to ideal for him.

I believe he could be a major contender for the sprint. He is plenty fast enough and the sprinters this year are pretty weak overall. There is plenty of prescedent for a horse of his type to turn back to 6 and win.(Smile, Precisionist, Gulch, etc.)

I give him little to no chance in the turf mile. 1st off despite his breeding, he is not the type that makes the transition stylewise, easily. Secondly, because the American turf horses are exceptionally weak this year, the Europeans that show up will have an even bigger advantage than usual. And Neil Drysdale is not training him. No offense to Larry Jones but Drysdale is a master at these situations and Larry Jones is much better with dirt sprinting types.

I would choose the mile and 70 race but there are other factors at play I'm sure. The least of which is the owners insistence to do things a little screwy. Personally it should not really make a difference whether or not the race is a grade 1 or not because despite the race not being a grade 1, people (breeders) will still consider it as such. The truth is that he has already done enough now (Kings Bishop) for a lot of people to consider breeding to him, though for those who think he will be a successful stallion should realize that there was a reason that there are very few good sons of Danzig standing in the US. I guess what I am saying is that he would be a whole lot better off winning the mile and 70 race or sprint than he would being 4th in the classic or 8th in the turf mile.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun's had four siblings - and all of them looked a little better on dirt.

Do you people realize that the Breeders Cup Classic is being run at Monmouth Park this year?

If it was run at most any other track - I think a rational case could probably be made for opting for another spot.

Cable Boy, Stormello, and Flying First Class are speed sprinters - I don't think they will be there to harass Hard Spun again...and make him rate - and no good horse looks any more uncomfortable rating than Hard Spun does.

He'll be vulnerable in the polytrack race at TP off his quick early - moderate late race on the sharp cut-back in the King's Bishop. I hope he runs VERY dismally in the TP race - and is "inexplicably" wheeled back to run in the Classic.

I'd love to get a big number on him come race day....and the worse he runs at TP - the less respect he gets from other riders in the race - the more likely he will be unpressured. And, as expectations lower, the more likely he is to finally be ridden correctly and with the proper tactics - and that is by gunning him to the lead (like in the Derby) and hoping the Monmouth Park track is as kind to one-dimensional speed as it was for the vast majority of the summer.

A real good performance by Hard Spun at TP - especially if it comes without being sent - is the absolute most discouraging thing someone who's intruged by him as a Breeders Cup Classic prospect would want to see.

I will bet you that Monmouth will do everything possible to ensure the track is NOT speed favoring on BC day's 1 and 2. Dont you think that they recall the fallout from the perceived rail bias last year? Dont you think that every article written about Monmouth talks about the "speed favoring" track isn't read by Kulina and company? Don't you think that they don't want a parade of wire to wire winners which may hamper their efforts to get the Cup in the future? Isn't it possible that the track may play different in the late fall than it does in the summer?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The dirt mile and 70 is IMO his greatest chance to win. The field will be moderate (who is out there?) and the distance is probably the closest to ideal for him.

There figures to be a lot of cheap speed in that race...and it's been cheap speed (and one bizarre Gomez ride) that has harassed this horse since the Derby.

While, from a percentage standpoint, it would look as though his chances are a lot better in that race because of the likely steep drop off in competition (unless DC comes back healthy and runs in that race) I think he has the look of a bet-against on race shape alone in the Dirt Mile. Opposite of that, I think he will have the look of an outstanding betting oppertunity, on race-shape alone, in the Breeders Cup Classic.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by Danzig

porter already got a huge bankroll from selling the rights. then he gets a tremendous bonus with the gr 1 win. win, lose, or draw, he's got a HUGE amount of money from owning and then selling that horse. so, why not try the classic? it won't detract from the deal he's made, he's got his guaranteed bucks....it's only a win situation for him, there is no risk--horse is not going to be his after, he's got the money--why not try for the win?

I agree with Chuck......when they all line up, do you really think he has a chance? Right now, he's at least 4th maybe 5th choice if the race includes SS, LR, AGS, and Curlin. So he lands another 15 million by winning the King's Bishop and now stands to collect 35 million when he hands the reigns to Darley, so the money is of least importance.....so from a competition perspective wouldn't you rather run a race where if everyone runs their best race, you got a shot? If everyone runs their best race in the BCC he's got no shot.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I will bet you that Monmouth will do everything possible to ensure the track is NOT speed favoring on BC day's 1 and 2.

Well, why wouldn't Monmouth have done "everything possible" to ensure the track was not inside-speed favoring on ALL of their big racing days this year?

I know what you're saying - but, I'm not exactly betting on a slow, tiring, track come BC day.

Big racing days are rarely times when tracks showcase their ability to make their racetrack as slow and tiring as possible.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Well, why wouldn't Monmouth have done "everything possible" to ensure the track was not inside-speed favoring on ALL of their big racing days this year?

I know what you're saying - but, I'm not exactly betting on a slow, tiring, track come BC day.

Big racing days are rarely times when tracks showcase their ability to make their racetrack as slow and tiring as possible.

Because there is little chance that they will lose the Haskell to Belmont or Churchill. They are under the microscope and be sure that they know it. If you see 3 or 4 wire to wire winners in the dirt races ypu can be sure you wont see Monmouth with another Breeders Cup.

[geeker2]

[Big racing days are rarely times when tracks showcase their ability to make their racetrack as slow and tiring as possible.

Man..if the track is going to be playing slow- Baffert might boycott

[sumitas]

LOL, whaaaaaa, whaaaaaaa