Fab strike

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

A combination of both. I don't like Fabulous Strike's chances of getting and holding the lead here against the type of pace he's likely to encounter based on which horses are currently projected to be entered (hope that wording it that way satisfies Master BTW). I thought his fade in Florida showed more than his wins in WV and Kentucky. I also feel that if Discreet Cat is anywhere close to 100%, the race is over already.

Could it be that Fabulous Strike just didnt like the Calder surface? He wouldnt be the first horse. Smokey Stover didnt seem to care too much for it that either.

but I agree...Discreet Cat will win...and make 3/5 look like value.

[SentToStud]

I don't think you need past performances to have a negative opinion about Fabulous Strike, especially if the Vosburgh comes up looking as good as a reasonable Grade 2.

Just who has he beaten?

He went 22 2/5 cruising along at Churchill while beating the mighty Gaff and Cougar Something.

Then at Calder, he went 21 2/5 against Weigelia and folded.

He's a very fast horse with very marginal and doubtful class. I can see betting a high speed fig, cheap horse at a big price, but he's not going to be a price.

I think there's a 1/5 chance that he didn't like Calder and has an excuse. But he still hasn't shown any ability to go fast early vs the class he's going to see in his next race and be anywhere close at the end.

He's a toss for me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally, I think one of the worst things anyone can do is form a strong opinion without reviewing the pps after the draw. I understand we all have our own personal biases, but deciding against a horse, without objectively seeing the race on paper, is a certain road to losing.

I understand the criticisms of Fabulous Strike, and don't even necessarily disagree, but to me, it is impossible to have an informed and definitive opinion over a day before the race is even drawn. At least as far as potential contenders are concerned.

[SentToStud]

That's true. Then again, if the race comes up solid (as I mentioned), it's not unreasonable to think he's a bad play at an ssumed modest number. Sure, he could end up lone speed and have a solid shot. But then he'd be a real short number and I wouldn't trust him enough.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally, I think one of the worst things anyone can do is form a strong opinion without reviewing the pps after the draw. I understand we all have our own personal biases, but deciding against a horse, without objectively seeing the race on paper, is a certain road to losing.

I understand the criticisms of Fabulous Strike, and don't even necessarily disagree, but to me, it is impossible to have an informed and definitive opinion over a day before the race is even drawn. At least as far as potential contenders are concerned.

Yet we ALL do it ALL the time. I don't see anyone waiting until after the draw before discussing the Derby. We discuss the Derby and the merits (or lack thereof) of the potential starters all winter. We've been discussing the BC since the beginning of the summer. Should we stop that too since we don't know exactly who will show up where and what their post positions will be? It's not like I'm discounting Fabulous Strike's chances in the 2008 BC Sprint. I'm considering the likely field for a race a day before the draw. Obviously, if they draw the field and Discreet Cat and many of the other top contenders aren't entered and we end up with a field of Fabulous Strike against First Defence and Teuflesburg, I would change my opinion of his chances.

I just don't find it as silly, if u have been watching the horses on a regular basis and are familiar with them, to have an opinion on them in a race based on who they are likely to face.

[blackthroatedwind]

Using the Kentucky Derby as your analogous race in this case is as ridiculous as your example of La Traviata in the Classic. Obviously the Derby is a different example and even then it is best to wait until the draw to make definitive opinions.

Somehow I think most of us know a lot more about the horses in the Derby, and their recent efforts, than this year's Vosburgh. Or, perhaps you can recite the running lines of every entrant in this year's Vosburgh?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Using the Kentucky Derby as your analogous race in this case is as ridiculous as your example of La Traviata in the Classic.

No it wasn't.

The La Traviata in the Classic example might stand the test of time.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No it wasn't.

The La Traviata in the Classic example might stand the test of time.

I was being nice.

I swear.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Is Talent Search in?

Talent Search is expected to run. As well as First Defence, Mach Ride, and the "perfect trip" Will He Shine

I have been out of the loop for a while, but I do remember the race at Calder and from what the connections of Fab Strike were claiming is that FS had a case of the thumps for that race. Also, it was about 105 degrees that day with a 99% humidity.. So I throw that race out and go from there.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

I have them...I got them from corina.

dont put pressure on corina to pick another race, there is only time for 5650 race per day as it is

[horseofcourse]

I still don't get the love affair with Discreet Cat. What exactly has the horse done?? He's a 4 year old who has run all of 7 races in his career?? What horses did he beat in the Cigar and Jerome....his 2 signature US wins?? So he's averaging slightly under 3 races per year I take it?? I just don't get it. I really hope he loses. If he destroys this field, I guess I'll get it maybe a little more. I'm sorry, I just don't see the Cigar, Jerome, and Vosburgh, as really big-time, BIG TIME races.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I still don't get the love affair with Discreet Cat. What exactly has the horse done?? He's a 4 year old who has run all of 7 races in his career?? What horses did he beat in the Cigar and Jerome....his 2 signature US wins?? So he's averaging slightly under 3 races per year I take it?? I just don't get it. I really hope he loses. If he destroys this field, I guess I'll get it maybe a little more. I'm sorry, I just don't see the Cigar, Jerome, and Vosburgh, as really big-time, BIG TIME races.

you're not alone.

[Theatrical]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I still don't get the love affair with Discreet Cat. What exactly has the horse done?? He's a 4 year old who has run all of 7 races in his career?? What horses did he beat in the Cigar and Jerome....his 2 signature US wins?? So he's averaging slightly under 3 races per year I take it?? I just don't get it. I really hope he loses. If he destroys this field, I guess I'll get it maybe a little more. I'm sorry, I just don't see the Cigar, Jerome, and Vosburgh, as really big-time, BIG TIME races.

Agree 100%.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

People said the same thing about Ghostzapper going into his final Breeders Cup prep. I'm actually dead serious, people thought Ghostzapper wasn't that much at all - and went on and on about how he beat "nothing" in his wins in the Vosburgh, Tom Fool, and Phillip Iselin.

Of course Ghostzapper beat NOTHING at all in this races - certainly nothing like an Invasor, Silver Train, or Badge of Silver - but quality of oppostion is often wildly overrated in horse racing anyway. With the right setup - a lesser horse often beats a superior horse.

In both cases, with Ghostzapper going into his final BC prep at age 4, and Discreet Cat going into his final BC prep at age 4 - the big reputations were far more about talent and explosiveness than it was about accomplishment and durability.

Does Discreet Cat have the talent and explosiveness of a Ghostzapper? Yes, he actually does. Clearly the two most naturally talented horses this decade.

However, one had the great Bobby Frankel in his ultimate training prime of his career - and the other has been handled with legendary incompetence - while forced to make TWO trips to winter in Dubai, and he's had throat problems and other soundness issues.

Discreet Cat has to prove he hasn't been 100% ruined. And it's possible he has. He has nothing else to prove beyond that.

The people who don't think Discreet Cat was an elite race horse are probably the same people who foolishly argued tooth and nail that Ghostzapper "didn't have a prayer" against Pleasantly Perfect because "he has beat all nothing fields."

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree with DrugS. Even though I'm not sure Discreet Cat is quite as good as DrugS thinks, he's essentially correct, the horse has overcome ridiculous handling, and physical issues, to run a few incredibly impressive races. Don't forget, Discreet Cat ran arguably faster in his 2YO debut than everyone's favorite supposed monster Lost in the Fog did later that day in winning the King's Bishop.

What's the big deal about races like the Vosburgh and Cigar Mile? You guys are kidding...right? These are huge races and should Discreet Cat run impressively in Sunday's Vosburgh, off a six month layoff, then that is saying a great deal. Ya know, before the BC ruined racing, the Vosburgh was the biggest sprint in the country ( and at a more preferable distance, for Discreet Cat, of seven furlongs ). His Cigar Mile was pretty terrific no matter how you cut it. I'm sorry, wasn't the second finisher the previous Met Mile and BC Sprint winner?

Look, I realize it's hard to get excited by horses with six race careers spanning two years. And, sure, he needs to do more to place himself on some exalted pantheon, but that doesn't diminish from the enormous talent he has shown on the racetrack. No, he can't now be considered " great ", because he hasn't proven enough. But he sure has a big talent.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree with DrugS. Even though I'm not sure Discreet Cat is quite as good as DrugS thinks, he's essentially correct, the horse has overcome ridiculous handling, and physical issues, to run a few incredibly impressive races. Don't forget, Discreet Cat ran arguably faster in his 2YO debut than everyone's favorite supposed monster Lost in the Fog did later that day in winning the King's Bishop.

What's the big deal about races like the Vosburgh and Cigar Mile? You guys are kidding...right? These are huge races and should Discreet Cat run impressively in Sunday's Vosburgh, off a six month layoff, then that is saying a great deal. Ya know, before the BC ruined racing, the Vosburgh was the biggest sprint in the country ( and at a more preferable distance, for Discreet Cat, of seven furlongs ). His Cigar Mile was pretty terrific no matter how you cut it. I'm sorry, wasn't the second finisher the previous Met Mile and BC Sprint winner?

Look, I realize it's hard to get excited by horses with six race careers spanning two years. And, sure, he needs to do more to place himself on some exalted pantheon, but that doesn't diminish from the enormous talent he has shown on the racetrack. No, he can't now be considered " great ", because he hasn't proven enough. But he sure has a big talent.

I don't care who he beat in the Cigar, he lit the track on fire that day.

How long was the Vosburgh 7F? I always remembered it as 6 1/2, at least the last 10-15 years.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't care who he beat in the Cigar, he lit the track on fire that day.

How long was the Vosburgh 7F? I always remembered it as 6 1/2, at least the last 10-15 years.

Not a very good memory Phil.

It was seven furlongs for the first 63 runnings....from 1940 - 2002. In fact, when Ghostzapper won it in 2002 it was the only time it was ever run at 6 1/2 furlongs.

[ArlJim78]

suddenly the subject is changed to Ghostzapper? because he is like Discreet Cat and the people who said things about him are the same people that are saying things about discreet Cat? these kinds of arguments by substitution seem weak to me.

If Discreet Cat were to crush the field in the BCC at Monmouth it would be another story, which if he were a good as he is being billed he would easily do. I prefer to pile on the accolades after the great performances are documented. The victory over two opponents in the Cigar was a very fast mile, but I don't think it quite puts one in the rarified air just yet.

[Swap Fliparoo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not a very good memory Phil.

It was seven furlongs for the first 63 runnings....from 1940 - 2002. In fact, when Ghostzapper won it in 2002 it was the only time it was ever run at 6 1/2 furlongs.

His universe is Zapper-centric.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Swap Fliparoo

His universe is Zapper-centric.

He's just not old like me.

Hell, I remember when My Juliet beat Bold Forbes in 1976.