3/8 (FG): LA Derby Day (6 Stakes)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No he started in the Holy Bull before the LA Derby.

He had a brutal trip in the Holy Bull - hung very wide on both turns.

[Scav]

Who cares about the LA Derby. What about all the money they are going to be handing out when Solis ****s Daytona up. I can almost guarantee that Solis is going to try and rate him, and he wants none of that. People are going to unload because of how good that victory looked but I would toss him out of the 1st two slots.

Where is Smith on Saturday that he isn't riding Daytona? El Camino Derby? I am not sure what is at SA this weekend, can't be much with Big Cap last weekend

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

drugs do you think curlin is a lock?

Curlin is an absolute cinch in the World Cup.

The real two questions are how will he come back? - and how will he take to the synthetic tracks?

To me, the only thing standing in the way of him being defeated again are those two obstacles.

I don't see a War Pass developing enough to be good enough to beat him - it would really take WP developing much better than I expect, getting an uncontested lead, and perhaps even needing a real speed friendly racetrack to have a shot at holding him off.

Pyro is a fine animal - I have doubts he will develop enough to beat Curlin for sure. Unlike War Pass - Pyro will never EVER have a chance to win a misleading circumstancial race over Curlin ... while War Pass has the correct style to steal something.

With WP and Pyro being 3-year-olds, and with so many different routes to take in there divisons - I doubt they ever meet up with Curlin on a natural dirt track anyway.

[Scav]

Furthermore, lets chat about Indian Blessing. Four horse field with a horse that just broke its maiden, in the slop, going all kinds of slow. I see zero pace pressure but I am not sure that matters, she seems the type that won't shut off anyways, and her last race she was staggering down the lane. IB also shipped back to California and now back to FG. Proud Spell was coming and finished well, and she might have 'needed' the race, I like how Jones didn't get all nuts with her works these last two, so while the race is unbettable, I think Indian Blessing has her work cut out her this race.

Thoughts?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

IB wins Saturday - As brilliant as she is - she's sitting on becoming a fantastic bet against in the right spot...and that day is coming very soon

[Danzig]

i know larry jones is very high on proud spell, and said after her last that he 'wouldn't trade places with anyone' with that filly. of course they all say things like that after a loss with a horse brand new to the scene, especially when they show they could have more in reserve. but proud spell does have a lot of upside, while indian appears to have shown everyone that she has limits. but no other horse, as yet, has proven that indian blessing can't finish. altho not looking as strong at the finish as she has at the start, IB has still managed to win them all...so far. of course we all know that most horses don't continue to win them all. but only three horses to push blessing? hmmm...
i know baffert has been trying to teach her to relax more, listen to the rider...but we also all know that not all racehorses are willing pupils.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

IB wins Saturday - As brilliant as she is - she's sitting on becoming a fantastic bet against in the right spot...and that day is coming very soon

i agree--but this isn't the right spot. not a bettors race for sure.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No way Indian Blessing loses.

I'm with you on Daytona. The only thing is, who goes with him? I just looked at the race for a little while and it's as paceless as last time. Unless someone decides to send, he might just end up on the lead again. I think Elusive Fort is pretty interesting. He had some obvious trouble 2 back vs. Einstein. Last time he broke well and then was eventually wrangled back by Douglas. If he breaks quick again, maybe they let him run early. I know one thing, when Wolfson ships, the horse is usually well meant.

It don't matter with who is going with him because Solis is going to try and fight this horse. He tried in his other races. Solis is not an open up on the backstretch jock. Smith just let this horse break and do what he wanted, and then he grabbed him at the end of the 1st turn.

If Smith was on this horse, the 6/5 would be justified and the horse probably wouldn't lose, but for some reason he bailed, and he isn't at Bay Meadows so obviously something is hot on Saturday at Santa Anita for him to pass this mount.

Back to Indian Blessing, do you say she won't lose because there is no pace or because she is that much better then Proud Spell. Proud Spell was off a ~100 day layoff and finished pretty well(in front a couple jumps after the wire). Jones is 26% 2nd off the layoff with two good works coming, all at FG, where IB had to ship in, then ship back out, and now ship back to FG. I'd like to know Baffert's numbers with this 3rd start off the layoff horses. He really has his horses cranked first out (maiden's and off the layoff) and I might be wrong but alot of them tail off until the next layoff. Gomez really rode IB down the lane, alot harder then I realized. I don't think IB has a turn off button, if she did, then I would be agreeing 100% with her lockness. Now, I am obviously not touting what will be a 8/5 shot, into a horse that will be 3/5 or 2/5 but I still think she isn't a lock, given her last performance was not that impressive.

[hockey2315]

What odds can I get on Elusive Fort?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What odds can I get on Elusive Fort?

Daytona will be 7/5 or 6/5 in this race. Proudinsky should take some cash

I am definitely not a ML guy but i will give it a shot

1: Buffalo Man - 10/1
2: Yate's Black Cat - 15/1
3: Brilliant - 6/1
4: Jazz Quest - 10/1
5: Elusive Fort - 15/1
6: French Beret - 20/1
7: Fracas - 12/1
8: Proudinsky - 4/1
9: Twilight Meteor - 12/1
10: Daytona - 7/5

[herkhorse]

It's nice to see Brilliant back in action.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

without the PPs.. I would guess Majestic Warrior. Just guessing

i would guess j be k is going to run good, especially with kent

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin is an absolute cinch in the World Cup.

The real two questions are how will he come back? - and how will he take to the synthetic tracks?

To me, the only thing standing in the way of him being defeated again are those two obstacles.

I don't see a War Pass developing enough to be good enough to beat him - it would really take WP developing much better than I expect, getting an uncontested lead, and perhaps even needing a real speed friendly racetrack to have a shot at holding him off.

Pyro is a fine animal - I have doubts he will develop enough to beat Curlin for sure. Unlike War Pass - Pyro will never EVER have a chance to win a misleading circumstancial race over Curlin ... while War Pass has the correct style to steal something.

With WP and Pyro being 3-year-olds, and with so many different routes to take in there divisons - I doubt they ever meet up with Curlin on a natural dirt track anyway.

i think your giving curlin way way to much love, the world cup is going to be a hard race, and if he wins it, i doubt we will see him in this country again.
well armed

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Scav

Daytona will be 7/5 or 6/5 in this race. Proudinsky should take some cash

I am definitely not a ML guy but i will give it a shot

1: Buffalo Man - 10/1
2: Yate's Black Cat - 15/1
3: Brilliant - 6/1
4: Jazz Quest - 10/1
5: Elusive Fort - 15/1
6: French Beret - 20/1
7: Fracas - 12/1
8: Proudinsky - 4/1
9: Twilight Meteor - 12/1
10: Daytona - 7/5

buffalo man is the play of the day, i will be using him in every bet, hes a very nice horse

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i would guess j be k is going to run good, especially with kent

He may run well ( though I highly doubt it ).....but he can't run good.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

buffalo man is the play of the day, i will be using him in every bet, hes a very nice horse

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i hope alot of people think yankee bravo has no chance......

No chance is maybe a little much but he is probably about as unlikely a competitor as exists in this race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No chance is maybe a little much but he is probably about as unlikely a competitor as exists in this race.

Yankee Bravo has a chance...























































If they let him run in the Mervin Muniz 30 minutes earlier carrying 111.

NT

I think it would be foolish to try and beat Daytona just off what you think Alex Solis is going to do. He's actually not riding that bad at the moment and this horse is on form and looks like he'll be alone on the lead again.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i think your giving curlin way way to much love, the world cup is going to be a hard race, and if he wins it, i doubt we will see him in this country again.
well armed

Well Armed was a nice 9th beaten about 27 lengths behind Discreet Cat, Invasor, and Sympatico Bribon the last time he was over there.

I'm sure those synthetic track wins make him elidgible to give Curlin a huge scare.