KY Derby Future Wager (Pool 2)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

that is what you might call the morning line.
you might want to wait until people actually start betting to decide if you see any value or not.

For that matter, if I could get the morning line 10-1 on "all others", I'd consider that huge value. I'll be all over it. (the highest it's ever closed is 6.90-1.)

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

For that matter, if I could get the morning line 10-1 on "all others", I'd consider that huge value. I'll be all over it. (the highest it's ever closed is 6.90-1.)

--Dunbar

good point, right there is some value.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

good point, right there is some value.

I thought the same thing, but 10-1 will not happen. I beleive it's sitting at
6-1 right now.

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Taking Asmussen and Pletcher over Asmussen and Zito in that Road to the Roses contest is going to ruin me in it.

We'll go down together then.. I did the same thing. Hard to know tho back then.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I thought the same thing, but 10-1 will not happen. I beleive it's sitting at
6-1 right now.

I think it will close around 5-1 and 6-1, and I think it would still have value at that level. But as you note, my original comment was in response to the poster who waid he/she didn't see any value looking at the morning line. At 10-1, the value of "all others" would be monstrous, IMO.

--Dunbar

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think it will close around 5-1 and 6-1, and I think it would still have value at that level. But as you note, my original comment was in response to the poster who waid he/she didn't see any value looking at the morning line. At 10-1, the value of "all others" would be monstrous, IMO.

--Dunbar

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

especially since Baffert is apparently training all 400+ of them:

Number Name Trainer Morning Line Current Odds
1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 32
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 44
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 14
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 27
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 16
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 9
7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 16
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 23
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 51
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 18
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 47
13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 37
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 22
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 24
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 81
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 5
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99
19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 38
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 83
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 7/2
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 48
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 44
24 All Other Three Ye Bob Baffert 10 8

--Dunbar

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

if anything is clear its that elysium fields is top 5..

[Kasept]

CURRENT ODDS IN THE FUTURE WAGER (11:30am)


1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 34
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 58
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 18
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 28
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 17
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 11

7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 12
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 22
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 59
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 22
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 50

13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 36
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 23
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 41
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 97
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 4
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 41
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 36
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 4
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 45
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 46
24 All Other 3YO 10 5

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

if anything is clear its that elysium fields is top 5..

Got my eye on him also. Blinks, stretch, ..... See if he moves forward yet again next time. But I don't think 22-1 is worth it for now.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I like both Elysium Fields and Colonel John at those odds.

I also think the the Paulo Lobo horse is better than some of these who are at much lower odds.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Visionaire currently @ 36-1 looks the best value in this pool

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Visionaire currently @ 36-1 looks the best value in this pool

I think the odds of that horse winning the Kentucky Derby are about 100/1....so I think I would disagree with you there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think the odds of that horse winning the Kentucky Derby are about 100/1....so I think I would disagree with you there.

I think you're being generous.

How in the world can Giant Moon be 50-1?
Who would take that... Oh he ran poorly in the
mess so he will certainly rebound? He was not
that good before.

There will be more than a few horses actually in the
race on the day that will be 50-1.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you're being generous.

If anyone wants to give me 100-1 on Visionaire, I'm in.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

If anyone wants to give me 100-1 on Visionaire, I'm in.

He's a slow horse, that needs a perfect set up, and then is only good enough if another rider blows it on another slow horse.

Anyone who actually thinks he is remotely close to being a contender for this year's KY Derby is borderline ( if not completely ) clueless.

Next.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Visionaire currently @ 36-1 looks the best value in this pool

I like this little horse. He doesn't have to improve nearly as much as some of the others to be in the top 5. He is certaintly better than Court Vision at this time, and I pretty sure he can at least run with Elysium Fields and Cool Coal Man with a favorable trip on a non-sloppy surface. He was better than Elysium Fields a year ago, and has improved since then quite a bit.

He will be another horse that proves BTW wrong...

He is not slow. He will beat up on a lot of these horses by the time everything is said and done.

I put $5 on him today. Considering putting a little bit more on him.

[blackthroatedwind]

As if there was more proof necessary.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As if there was more proof necessary.

The proof will come later on this year, and it will most likely be in my favor just like with the other "slow" horse.