Derby top 10

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't think he's even fast enough to do that. He'll plod up to crack the top ten but I'd be surprised if he can do any better than 6th.

I think you are underestimating the advantage a horse with Court Vision's plodding style has in a race like the Derby. Just looking at some recent history...

'07 Last year I'mawildandcrazyguy raced back with Street Sense early - and plugged home 4th, about a length behind Curlin and in front of a future Haskell winner.

'06 Steppenwolfer and Jazil - two of the slowest horses around plugged in 3rd and 4th - ahead of the in sharp form trio of Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint.

'05 Giacomo beat a field including Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, and Afleet Alex

People can talk all they want about horses like War Emblem, Hard Spun, Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Congaree showing sharp speed in the Derby and running very well - they were all excellent 3yo's - they all came back to win a Grade 1 race later in their 3yo season.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I feel this way any year. less than 8 weeks out i prefer my list to actually qualify in case of ilness, bad trips, etc.


that is if i actually had a list

In Rock Hard Ten's case - disqualification.

I don't agree with you at all though - only four of the last nine Derby winners had so much as $1 in Graded Stakes earnings by this time during their 3yo season.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In Rock Hard Ten's case - disqualification.

I don't agree with you at all though - only four of the last nine Derby winners had so much as $1 in Graded Stakes earnings by this time during their 3yo season.

You cant disagree with my list because it doesnt exist.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

But I can disagree with your theory for making a list that doesn't exist

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

But I can disagree with your theory for making a list that doesn't exist

Since almost all of those horses were 20 -1 or higher it is doubt ful they were on anyones lists nn March 7th

[The Indomitable DrugS]

True in the case of War Emblem and Charismatic (who upon further review, ran 3rd in the El Camino Derby on March 6th - thus misses your cutoff by a day)

False in the case of Smarty Jones, and Monarchos - they owned huge figures and were hyped.

I bet Funny Cide strongly in the Lousianna Derby (March 9th) - after his well beaten 3rd there his odds drifted up future wise - but he had run a HUGE figure at age 2

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think you are underestimating the advantage a horse with Court Vision's plodding style has in a race like the Derby. Just looking at some recent history...

'07 Last year I'mawildandcrazyguy raced back with Street Sense early - and plugged home 4th, about a length behind Curlin and in front of a future Haskell winner.

'06 Steppenwolfer and Jazil - two of the slowest horses around plugged in 3rd and 4th - ahead of the in sharp form trio of Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint.

'05 Giacomo beat a field including Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, and Afleet Alex

People can talk all they want about horses like War Emblem, Hard Spun, Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Congaree showing sharp speed in the Derby and running very well - they were all excellent 3yo's - they all came back to win a Grade 1 race later in their 3yo season.

Big difference now though. We aren't going to have a bunch of cheap speed in the race like we would in the past from California and the Blue Grass. Now all those preps are playing to off the pace turf horses which is going to significantly reduce the number of pace factors in the Derby and the slow plodders will be getting up for 6th or 7th instead of 3rd or 4th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I understand your reasoning - but I don't agree with it. Anytime you have a 20 horse field of 3yo stretching out - you are going to get a faster pace than you'd figure to get on paper.

I'm sure Asmussen would love to enter a rabbit in the race to throw at War Pass - his problem is finding a sprinter of his with enough Graded Stakes earning to get in and fast enough to carry out the mission.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I understand your reasoning - but I don't agree with it. Anytime you have a 20 horse field of 3yo stretching out - you are going to get a faster pace than you'd figure to get on paper.

I'm sure Asmussen would love to enter a rabbit in the race to throw at War Pass - his problem is finding a sprinter of his with enough Graded Stakes earning to get in and fast enough to carry out the mission.

Also worth noting that every example you used above had a Beyer at least four points better going into the Derby than Court Vision has ever run. That alone can be the difference between 3rd or 4th and 6th or 7th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

We really are going back and fourth about Court Vision running 4th instead of 7th in the Derby - on a friday night, with a huge day of betting ahead tomorrow?

I will use the insane snow storm we got here as my excuse.

I'm still trying to figure out who is going to win Most Athletic.

[Danzig]

while i'm waiting for best video...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Since almost all of those horses were 20 -1 or higher it is doubt ful they were on anyones lists nn March 7th

I made a giant mistake and forgot about Fusaichi Pegasus.

He didn't run in his first Graded Stake until his facile Gr 2 San Felipe win at 6/5 odds on March 19th.


So, six of the last nine winners of the Derby didn't have any Graded Stakes top four finishes prior to the El Camino Derby on March 6th.

However, four of those six did have triple digit Beyer figs prior to that time.

Funny Cide (103 2yo Beyer in NY bred Stake)
Monarchos (103 Alw Beyer at GP on Feb 3rd)
Fusaichi Pegasus (103 Alw Beyer at SA on Feb 19th)
Smarty Jones (105 2yo Beyer, 108 3yo Beyer in ungraded stake)

A horse like Big Brown, and his 104 falls in line with horses like Monarchos and Fu Peg - although neither of them earned their big figure in an N1X alw race initally scheduled for the turf.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by mp3

Hope I have some credibility on this board.....


1. War Pass....until proven otherwise
2. Pyro............ditto
3. Big Brown...could be no.1 after fla derby
4. Elysium Fields..Ran a bigger race than ccm in FOY
5. Court Vision... Mott will have him sharper in Wood or BG
6. Cool Coal Man...Distance may be limted
7. Dennis of Cork.........has done nothing wrong yet
8. Colonel John....Strange path to churchill, will be on dirt for the first time in KD.
9. El Gato Malo.....needs to relax a bit better early in the race. big talent
10. Hey Byrn....regressed slightly in his last start yet still dominated...

Thoughts?????

War Pass wouldn't be at my top. He would still be in the top five though.

Dennis of Cork would be out of there.

Visionaire would be in there.

Georgie Boy would have to be included. Hey Byrn or Court Vision knocked out. Unsure of which one.