Tomlinson Ratings for Derby Contenders

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Here are the Tomslinson Ratings for all contenders in future pool 3. Just food for thought. . .

Adriano - 342 13-13-24-0-0
Z Fortune - 336 1-0-3-0-0
Big Brown - 316 4-3-27-2-0
Salute the Sarge - 315 9-2-7-0-0 4.14
War Pass - 314 13-5-9-0-1 4.09
Colonel John - 313 4-1-9-0-0
Smooth Air - 309 4-0-4-0-0
Tomcito - 308 6-3-9-0-0
Big Truck - 306 5-0-11-1-1
Court Vision - 306 11-5-12-0-0
Cool Coal Man - 289 10-8-15-1-0
Pyro - 286 8-7-11-0-0
Yankee Bravo - 280 2-1-5-2-0
Denis of Cork - 279 3-3-6-0-2
Atoned - 278 6-1-7-0-0
My Pal Charlie - 275 6-2-10-0-0
Blackberry Road - 272 10-6-13-1-0
Gayego - 256 5-6-4-1-0 4.33
Bob Black Jack - 243 5-0-3-0-0 4.33
El Gato Malo - 238 5-0-3-0-0 4.33
Tale of Ekati - 236 9-1-12-2-0
Visionaire - 202 6-1-5-0-0
Liberty Bull - 183 4-3-5-0-0

While I know this will annoy some people, I have included the Dosage Profile of all horses and indicated which have an index over 4.00. What I find interesting is that only 3 of the top 10 horses listed with the biggest 'Tommies' have any points in the two 'stamina' wings of their profile. Not really sure how this can be explained. Believe in dosage or not, it still holds true that having at least 1 point in either of the 'stamina' wings is helpful come the first Saturday in May. I realize we seem to be in an era where many rules have been broken lately but my handicapping will not totally ignore this statistic of the past.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

While I know this will annoy some people, I have included the Dosage Profile of all horses and indicated which have an index over 4.00. What I find interesting is that only 3 of the top 10 horses listed with the biggest 'Tommies' have any points in the two 'stamina' wings of their profile. Not really sure how this can be explained. Believe in dosage or not, it still holds true that having at least 1 point in either of the 'stamina' wings is helpful come the first Saturday in May. I realize we seem to be in an era where many rules have been broken lately but my handicapping will not totally ignore this statistic of the past.

While I agree with you, the middle number is considered the 'classic' category. Wasn't the old rule of thumb that the horse should have more points in that middle category or to the right of it rather than more points to the left? I don't know, I've always paid more attention to that middle number in regards to the Kentucky Derby. Having points in the Solid and Professional categories certainly helps, but I wouldn't toss out a horse if they didn't have that. Jazil, for example, didn't have any points in the Solid or Professional categories, but he won the 12 furlong Belmont. *Shrugs.*

[prudery]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

While I agree with you, the middle number is considered the 'classic' category. Wasn't the old rule of thumb that the horse should have more points in that middle category or to the right of it rather than more points to the left? I don't know, I've always paid more attention to that middle number in regards to the Kentucky Derby. Having points in the Solid and Professional categories certainly helps, but I wouldn't toss out a horse if they didn't have that. Jazil, for example, didn't have any points in the Solid or Professional categories, but he won the 12 furlong Belmont. *Shrugs.*

The most important thing about the middle number/classic aptitude was not necessarily only the most points in the middle, but the balance of speed and stamina that weighted the equation to the middle ... Ideally the dosage profile had a blend or a concentration that did this, but even more ideal was the " heart shaped " profile that had a balance of chef-de-races in the catagories from speed to stamina ...
A heart shaped profile might look like this :
1-2-4-2-1 , or like this : 0-3-1-3-0 , and so on ...
Today few horses have anything in the solid category, and fewer in the professional--the last two longer aptitudes after classic , because fewer longer races are carded and the sires can not be chef-de -race if no one runs de race ...