4/19-20 (KEE): Lexington; Ben Ali

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Salute the Sarge couldn't stay far enough off the lead to not die in the BC Juvenile, he's coming out of a six-furlong race and he's gotta gun to avoid being compromised by the two speeds to his outside. Why wouldn't he be close to the pace? Last time Riley Tucker was in blinkers, he didn't sit off the lead, and he hasn't really done it since except for in the Southwest. And I don't care if Gomez hates going to the lead, he's on a one-dimensional speed horse, what else is he going to do? Pretty sure the fractions will be fast.

Salute the Sarge won't be within 3 lengths of St. Joe at the half. He's too slow. I believe his best races are behind him and he's an auto-toss in this one.

Riley Tucker? He's too slow as well. Plus you've got John R. in the saddle. Good luck with that one. If Prado couldn't get him in the winners circle in that horrendous Transylvania, then Jesus Christ wouldn't be able to in this race.

The only horse that could challenge is Samba Rooster. But Gomez nuts up on speed horses AND he'll be bet down. Pass.

I'm looking for value in a race full of pigs. St. Joe will be 12-1 or higher.

Originally Posted by philcski

I've liked St Joe since his maiden win- but I don't think he can get this distance. Think he's better suited at 6-7f, would have been a force in the Derby Trial next Saturday.

That's one of the big questions is distance limitations. What I'm most concerned about is if Mena can get him to relax on the lead. If he can relax and handle a little pressure, then he'll wire this field.

Derby Trial? Looks like a poly specialist to me.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Salute the Sarge won't be within 3 lengths of St. Joe at the half. He's too slow. I believe his best races are behind him and he's an auto-toss in this one.

Riley Tucker? He's too slow as well. Plus you've got John R. in the saddle. Good luck with that one. If Prado couldn't get him in the winners circle in that horrendous Transylvania, then Jesus Christ wouldn't be able to in this race.

The only horse that could challenge is Samba Rooster. But Gomez nuts up on speed horses AND he'll be bet down. Pass.

I'm looking for value in a race full of pigs. St. Joe will be 12-1 or higher.

I'm not saying any of those horses are winners, and I'm not faulting you for looking for value. It's a wide open race. Personally I hate all four of the horses you mentioned. I just think the fractions are going to be really quick.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

you are a brave man in taking any speed horse to wire a race like this at keeneland.
]

Didn't you watch the Bluegrass? The front-runner all the way round nearly won, and the winner and third were in the first flight throughout. No deep closers need apply.

[miraja2]

I like Big Glen a little bit, and (a horse I don't think anybody has mentioned) Behindatthebar.
All of Behindatthebar's synthetic starts have been decent, and while he doesn't really seem to be improving that much, his last race - also 8.5 on the syn - was good enough for me to consider him. With the four horses directly inside of him either gunning for the lead or falling way back, I think he stands to get a decent stalker's trip into what I think will be about an average pace, and he might be around at the end. If the price is reasonable I might take a shot with him.

Tomcito's recent lights-out work over this track is somewhat interesting....but then again, he did the same thing over the Gulfstream surface shortly before the Florida Derby.

[eajinabi]

Behindatthebar loves the polytrack. Put a line through his El camino cause it was on dirt. His two wins on Poly were won easily at the jocks were in-hand in both races.

Felon is coming off a maiden win but he romped in that. Will relish the distance and Poly. Maker is at winning at 32% so far and his last blowout workout was probably indication for Maker to enter him today.

Taking a shot here
The Bet:

$20 WPS on Behindatthebar

I will also use both horses in my pick 3s.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

I've liked St Joe since his maiden win- but I don't think he can get this distance. Think he's better suited at 6-7f, would have been a force in the Derby Trial next Saturday.

Samba Rooster is a complete unknown on Poly- thus I like St. Joe in here at a price, the distance and the formerly mentioned horse will be his obstacles as both like to run on the pace. Alot of these have had their chances and they don't really excite me.

I'm also interested in how Salute the Sarge will race, he should improve 2nd time off the layoff.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Racecar Rapsody

Yep.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

If Samba doesn't take to the surface then expect St. Joe to be all alone. And that's what I'm betting on. Absolutely no speed in the race.

No speed, eh?

Before you go apeshit, I'm just breaking balls.

[jaripeo]

Originally Posted by jaripeo

Well, I hope the ones that came out of it will be:

SAMBA ROOSTER $17.00 $9.20 (Second)
TOMCITO
RILEY TUCKER $6.80 (Third)
And, in this order.

SAMBA ROOSTER $17.00 $9.20 (Second)
TOMCITO
RILEY TUCKER $6.80 (Third)
And, in this order.[/quote]

[Mike]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Behindatthebar loves the polytrack. Put a line through his El camino cause it was on dirt. His two wins on Poly were won easily at the jocks were in-hand in both races.

Felon is coming off a maiden win but he romped in that. Will relish the distance and Poly. Maker is at winning at 32% so far and his last blowout workout was probably indication for Maker to enter him today.

Taking a shot here
The Bet:

$20 WPS on Behindatthebar

I will also use both horses in my pick 3s.

Congrtas
I had Riley Tucker who was just too slow

[10 pnt move up]

Interesting race, first I thought my 9-10 exacta and win bet was looking great only to see that deflate.

Its hard to take slow pletcher horses seriously, he does not develop horses a la nafzger or sheriffs but if they are good they come out firing, yet this horse looks decent.

And Samba Rooster ran so good its almost hard to take the result at face value.

[eajinabi]

Thanks,

I was excited last night when I saw him at 12-1 M/L. LOL!
I knew the odds would come to reality by post time.

Not a bad win for me nonetheless.

[10 pnt move up]

and there is a sucker horse in every race and that is Tomcito in the Lexington.......God which I could have booked every dollar on this horse.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

and there is a sucker horse in every race and that is Tomcito in the Lexington.......God which I could have booked every dollar on this horse.

i was shocked at how much play that one took.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No speed, eh?

Before you go apeshit, I'm just breaking balls.

I haven't watched the replay yet but from the chart it looks like Gomez couldn't get Samba to relax. Crazy fractions and had an easy lead. Horse could've won with a 23 and 46. 45 is insane on that surface.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I haven't watched the replay yet but from the chart it looks like Gomez couldn't get Samba to relax. Crazy fractions and had an easy lead. Horse could've won with a 23 and 46. 45 is insane on that surface.

CP, it looks like his instructions if you ask me. Baffert is addicted to speed, and the track was playing to speed.

The 45 comment is exactly what I thought when I saw the fractions.....Ran real well to hold that long with those fractions....

[LARHAGE]

Samba Rooster is a head case, on the ESPN telecast Jeannine Edwards said she talked to Gomez and he was told the horse was plain mean and you couldn't use a whip, and that the horse had to think he was running off with you or he plain wouldn't run, he couldn't take hold of him at all, so considering he had no whip, the horse was a runaway, and he was going 2 turns for the first time on a new surface it's hard to not be impressed with that effort!

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I haven't watched the replay yet but from the chart it looks like Gomez couldn't get Samba to relax. Crazy fractions and had an easy lead. Horse could've won with a 23 and 46. 45 is insane on that surface.

Was tugging and fighting this nut all the way down the backstretch.

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I haven't watched the replay yet but from the chart it looks like Gomez couldn't get Samba to relax. Crazy fractions and had an easy lead. Horse could've won with a 23 and 46. 45 is insane on that surface.

this horse makes 2-3 y/o corinthian look sane.