Derby Post Position Selection Order

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Supposed to be at 5 p.m., but I'm not totally sure. I don't see anything about it when I push the "Guide" button, and the PTI guys said they'd be on today..

ESPN2 at 4pm CST, so 5pm your time

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

ESPN2 at 4pm CST, so 5pm your time

Thanks. Derby site says ESPN, hence the confusion.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I disagree that 15 is still going to be out there when Bob Black Jack comes around with the 13th pick. IIRC, didn't someone, I'm thinking Bandini/Pletcher, pick 15 because it's the last post in the main gate? I feel like 15 is actually usually one of the first five or six picks in the PP draw.

Smarty Jones/John Servis picked the 15 post because it's the first post in the auxiliary gate, so you get a little less bumping at the start. Think they had about the 13th pick or so that year, so not a great position but it was definitely an ingenious selection- which you are correct, was duplicated by Pletcher/Bandini the following year and Pletcher mentioned that in his choice.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I was thinking the same thing. That's the way they've done it in the past. I don't think the post position selection order has been determined yet.. I think that's the "pill pull" order that will determine post position selection order... is this confusing or what? Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

I guess it is the actual post position selection order.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/94122.html

[mik9872]

It should be drawn just like all other races.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Scav

a REAL interesting pace scenerio, all the horses I like got good draws as far as choices. Colonel John should have zero excuses now. Brown will probably get 1,2,19,20

AUTO TOSS, ADIOS BIG BROWN!!

How about he's never even come close to running a race fast enough to win the Derby? How about he's never had dirt kicked in his face?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

How about he's never even come close to running a race fast enough to win the Derby? How about he's never had dirt kicked in his face?

Have you seen some of the performances from California (more specifically Santa Anita) when they have moved to cooked up dirt tracks (Oaklawn specifically).....

I'm betting on that angle right there. You realize that these synthetics put a TON of fitness into these horses, and even running on a deep dirt surface, which Churchill certainly isn't, is like running on concrete.

Maybe people will realize this year when synethics run 1-2-3....

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by mik9872

It should be drawn just like all other races.

i agree.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

How about he's never even come close to running a race fast enough to win the Derby? How about he's never had dirt kicked in his face?

Maybe not dirt..but let's not have a false premiss that there was zero kickback at DMR, SA & HOL . In fact,many of the jocks were complaining at SA & DMR about the kickback. Can't see that this is a major factor..albeit it does make for a good excuse after the race.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Scav

I know that this is a foreign concept for people that don't analyze things, but have you seen some of the performances from California (more specifically Santa Anita) when they have moved to cooked up dirt tracks (Oaklawn specifically).....

I'm betting on that angle right there. You realize that these synthetics put a TON of fitness into these horses, and even running on a deep dirt surface, which Churchill certainly isn't, is like running on concrete.

Maybe people will realize this year when synethics run 1-2-3....

I love the hype this horse is getting...he beat El Gato Malaise by a half a length and the super offspring of Stormy Jack, Bob's Black Jack who's best race is probably a mile, by half a length at a mile and an 1/8th. Whoooppiiee!! He's never Beyered 100. Actually, he's barely shaded 5 lengths slower than 100. And, he's never run on dirt in the afternoon.

This folks is your second choice. And with the PP draw,and some more hype, could be the favorite.

RED - EDIT

[cakes44]

Toss Gayego if you want, but as long as he gets the 20 hole, he should be sitting 4th or 5th going into the 1st turn. There aren't a bunch of true speed horses in there. The only problem is Mike Smith could find a way to have him in 5th and 5 wide at the same time.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Toss Gayego if you want, but as long as he gets the 20 hole, he should be sitting 4th or 5th going into the 1st turn. There aren't a bunch of true speed horses in there. The only problem is Mike Smith could find a way to have him in 5th and 5 wide at the same time.

I'm guessing rail with the last pick. And Mike Smith could still have him 5 wide going into the 1st turn.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I love the hype this horse is getting...he beat El Gato Malaise by a half a length and the super offspring of Stormy Jack, Bob's Black Jack who's best race is probably a mile, by half a length at a mile and an 1/8th. Whoooppiiee!! He's never Beyered 100. Actually, he's barely shaded 10 lengths slower than 100. And, he's never run on dirt in the afternoon.

This folks is your second choice. And with the PP draw,and some more hype, could be the favorite.

here in lies the issue of old school handicapping. the Beyer over 100 isn't common on synthetics, I agree there are question marks, let there be them because I am hoping my odds hold.

You are out of your mind thinking this horse will be favored over Big Brown

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Toss Gayego if you want, but as long as he gets the 20 hole, he'll should be sitting 4th or 5th going into the 1st turn. There aren't a bunch of true speed horses in there. The only problem is Mike Smith could find a way to have him in 5th and 5 wide at the same time.

he won't have to find a way to be wide, he will be wide from out there for sure no matter what Smith does.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

All the speed is outside or will likely be....if I'm one of those starting with Bob BJ, I'd take the rail which will probably be one of the latter posts taken. He's going to the lead anyway.

Agree...take the rail and send..

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by Scav

Have you seen some of the performances from California (more specifically Santa Anita) when they have moved to cooked up dirt tracks (Oaklawn specifically).....

I'm betting on that angle right there. You realize that these synthetics put a TON of fitness into these horses, and even running on a deep dirt surface, which Churchill certainly isn't, is like running on concrete.

Maybe people will realize this year when synethics run 1-2-3....

BBJ won't have much dirt in his face cuz he'll be in front in the stretch and at the wire. So there.

And BBJ will be just off the lead until he muds em or just plain blows em away.

[Travis Stone]

Only during Derby week is there a topic about order of post position selection.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Only during Derby week is there a topic about order of post position selection.

...and it's all coming too fast for me. Shouldn't they have another step in this post position process, like the owners do rock, paper, scizzors to determine just which order they then determine the post positions?

Last week I think I posted something to the effect of posts 15/16 winning 5 of the last 8 Derbies in which there were 16 or more runners

That's the kind of stat that Pletcher must have been looking at

[sumitas]

I'm lookin that BBJ is x3 Nearctic (his bottom line family). He is x4 to Sister Sarah (his bottom line family) and x10 to Scapa Flow, the darling of stamina. I repeat, BBJ can get the distance based on his pedigree. The doseage just shows his great speed from his sire line. Stamina from his family which is supported throughout the pedigree.

Whether the breeders viewed the mating in this detail, who knows ? Maybe they decided to just cross the In Reality line with the Mr Prospector line. But they got a helluva pedigree nonetheless.

I would like to see him outside BB at the post tho. I'd like to see BBJ just off the lead until the final turn. Which is gonna be tough to do cuz BB draws after BBJ. I'm sure the connections of both a casting wary eyes at each other. Any horse on the lead will be a tough go. I think BBJ on the lead can finish itm. Just off the lead he can win.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Sad that Gayego and Recapture the Glory received the last draws.
I would have tossed those 2 regardless of post position.

If Recapturetheglory Fails it want be the post, just not fast enough to clear and hold off the charge. Extreme outside would actualy help his chances.