Big Brown Beyer 109

[freddymo]

Steve this crop flat out stinks. Big Brown is a very nice colt and certainly has a license to move forward...Although this retarded Preakness isn't goint to do a thing for him.. The colt has raced 4 times unfortunately he has raced against no one so who really knows what he is made of. I suggest we won't no the colts true ability till he try older more accomplished company as he cant race against his best 3 year old peers since they will be in the Acorn Coaching Club and Alabama..lol

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve this crop flat out stinks. Big Brown is a very nice colt and certainly has a license to move forward...Although this retarded Preakness isn't goint to do a thing for him.. The colt has raced 4 times unfortunately he has raced against no one so who really knows what he is made of. I suggest we won't no the colts true ability till he try older more accomplished company as he cant race against his best 3 year old peers since they will be in the Acorn Coaching Club and Alabama..lol

I think it's the first time I've heard a race referred to as retarded.

[Kasept]

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

Don't for get about Keep Laughing and Hatta Fort.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I was going to bring that up as well...Proud Spell should have gotten higher than a 99.

Sounds like the Beyer guys blew the 2 big races.

[AlexP]

It does seem odd to me that Proud Spell only got a 99, even though I don't know much about Beyers (her race to me was better than Zaftig's, even though I love both fillies, and it would seem she should get at least the same figure...they were relatively close at least). However, I do have one question. Someone was saying with the bad trip and ground loss (which Steve then said doesn't factor in) Big Brown should have gotten a lower figure. To me, if a horse has a bad trip/goes against a bias/etc (those don't all apply to BB obviously), shouldn't his Beyer be higher than a horse that had a great trip/was with the bias/etc?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Sounds like the Beyer guys blew the 2 big races.

For what it's worth, here are Dr Roman's Performance Figures (I have used these the past 10 years as they seem to me much more accurate than Beyer numbers), they do take into account aspects of the trip not considered by Beyer...the lower the number, the better:
2008 Derby:
Big Brown...-68
Eight Belles...-51
Denis of Cork...-34
2007 Derby:
Street Sense...-52
Hard Spun...-49
Curlin...-29
Also, here are the PF's for the last 10 winners:
2008...Big Brown...-68
2007...Street Sense...-52
2006...Barbaro...-60
2005...Giacomo...-48
2004...Smarty Jones...-63
2003...Funny Cide...-60
2002...War Emblem...-61
2001...Monarchos...-75
2000...FuPeg...-57
1999...Charismatic...-48
Obviously, Dr Roman's figures contradict the notion that this is a bad group, except for Monarchos who absolutely freaked in the 2001 Derby, Big Brown stands above recent winners. Time will tell but for a horse to get such a number in only his fourth lifetime start would seem to indicate that his PF's will continue to increase. Every year, I hear "this is a crappy crop of three year olds"...especially after a horse such as Barbaro, Smarty Jones and Big Brown romp in the Derby...of course it's way too early to judge and as Kasept pointed out, many Derby horses were that in name only as their connections caught "Derby fever" as some do every year. Once they sort themselves out, some will be turf horses, sprinters and yes...like almost every year, claimers, while "new faces" will appear to challenge...I look forward to the Preakness and the next wave of contenders. But if he stays healthy...Big Brown will be something special, as a fan, I can only dream of him and Curlin facing off sometime down the road. I know recent history indicates this may never happen but that's the beauty of this sport...the possibilities!

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by AlexP

It does seem odd to me that Proud Spell only got a 99, even though I don't know much about Beyers (her race to me was better than Zaftig's, even though I love both fillies, and it would seem she should get at least the same figure...they were relatively close at least). However, I do have one question. Someone was saying with the bad trip and ground loss (which Steve then said doesn't factor in) Big Brown should have gotten a lower figure. To me, if a horse has a bad trip/goes against a bias/etc (those don't all apply to BB obviously), shouldn't his Beyer be higher than a horse that had a great trip/was with the bias/etc?

That isn't the way Beyers work. They are based directly on raw time related to the speed of the track, not on trip. In this case the figure should have been 104. If they weren't confident enough in the 109 to adjust the other two races 5 points upward then they should have stuck with 104. I don't like splits to improve a figure by 5 points at all.

[VOL JACK]

The LOWER the # the better?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

[sumitas]

it's beyond the numbers that i wonder about

[alysheba4]

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

[AlexP]

Alright Sniper, thanks. I'm still trying to figure out how Beyers are calculated and learn more about them (I mean, I know what's good, bad, etc, but how they're figured out).

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.

[Bravado2112]

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I think it's the first time I've heard a race referred to as retarded.

Just the timing is so counterproductive

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

He was tired. Not exhausted, but tired. A freak would be a horse throwing up a sub 2:00 time with a 115 beyer. He is actually just very typical of most derby winners. Nothing more. He just hasn't had to beat much. They all eventually get tested unless they are retired and you will soon see he is much more like a Hard Spun or Street Sense than a Secretariat. Hopefully he will hang around but somebody like Curlin or even the late developing Harlem Rocker will give us a real picture of him. Those feet will eventually get him if he goes the 3 races in 5 weeks. That is just the reality of it.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Bravado2112

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

It was very very windy and the wind could not have been beneficial on the other hand the track was kind of firm and I suspect extremely fast

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

good luck with the Mineshafts and iI would think Empire Maker is much more of a turf stallion then dirt. EM was bred to mostly turf producers and turf performers.