7/31: Saratoga (Day 8)

[Kasept]

Stumbled early in ultimately chalky P6 carryover at Spa Wednesday, but pair of ordinary P4's ($100/$170) and lots of simple hits made the day a modest success. Hope you did well!

Thursday's 10 race card a bit of a ho-hum affair, but the ones that appear the most straightforward are the ones that turn wacky... (Second steeplechase of the week starts things off, and I'm feeling strong after catching my first "hopper" hit in ages Wednesday when Dynaski got the job done at 3-2!)


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Kiser Novice, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Bee Charmer 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 The Price of Love 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Dr. Bloomer 5-1 7th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tough to figure juvy maiden heat with 'logicals' slightly suspect..

Most Likely: #8 Valiancy 7-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Bounissimo 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Fast Draw 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Tapit's Brew 5-1 5th


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Hatta Fort 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Around the Cape 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Redefined 5-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Georgetown 15-1 5th


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Isn't That Special 5-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Northern Rhodes 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Prominent 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lovely Wildcat 5-1 4th


5th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Adding #8 Lauren's Go Go WON to the P4...

Most Likely: #5 Better Than Swiss 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Linda's Kisses 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 (POE) Barbara'sluckystar 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Meese Rocks 12-1 4th


<$100 P4 Play:

2: 1-4-5-6-8
3: 3-4-7-8
4: 2 (P3 Paid $30.75)
5: 2-3-5-6-8 (P3 Paid $97.50)

5x4x1x5 = $100

P4 Paid $177.75


6th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Storming Off 4-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Galaxy Tax 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Oldham 4-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Windication 20-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key #3 1st-2nd with /SCR-6-7-8 (1x3x2x1 = 6 x .30 = $1.80)


7th: CLM, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Transit of Venus 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Approved by Dylan 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Ground Hero 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Encinas 4-1 WON

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key #9 1st-2nd-3rd with 1-3-4-5 (1x4x3x2 = 24 x 3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

Paid $25.95


8th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Pious Ashley 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Latest Scoop 9-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Spring Elusion 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Loquacious Lil 6-1 10th


9th: 5th John Morrissey, NYB-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Stunt Man 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Mr. Bourbon Street 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 SCR


10th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Logic Way 3-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Hangingbyathread 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 North Country 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Bethpage Black 12-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-4-5-9
8: 1-4-5
9: 2-3-6
10: 8

5x3x3x1 = $45


Good luck!
Steve

[zippyneedsawin]

Steve,
I'm leary at the drop Storming Off is taking in the 6th. Coming off an allowance win at Monmouth in June and shows one published workout since. On paper, this one lays over the field, but I'm wondering why he's in for a tag today.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Steve,
I'm leary at the drop Storming Off is taking in the 6th. Coming off an allowance win at Monmouth in June and shows one published workout since. On paper, this one lays over the field, but I'm wondering why he's in for a tag today.

I'm not sure how competitive he'd be at Alw N2X - certainly looks like he is what he is and with mid 80 bsf's in open company you'd need a lot of luck to get through...this looks like a good spot to pick up a check and cash out on him

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm not sure how competitive he'd be at Alw N2X - certainly looks like he is what he is and with mid 80 bsf's in open company you'd need a lot of luck to get through...this looks like a good spot to pick up a check and cash out on him

OK. That makes sense too. I figured it was either that or something wrong with him. Thanks.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm not sure how competitive he'd be at Alw N2X - certainly looks like he is what he is and with mid 80 bsf's in open company you'd need a lot of luck to get through...this looks like a good spot to pick up a check and cash out on him

I agree and am glad the race is not in a P4 sequence.

[CSC]

Race-6 Storming Off looks suspicious on the drop, I'm debating whether to take him on. ?

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm not sure how competitive he'd be at Alw N2X - certainly looks like he is what he is and with mid 80 bsf's in open company you'd need a lot of luck to get through...this looks like a good spot to pick up a check and cash out on him

NYRA is listing a minor "equipment change" for Storming Off.

Race 6 #3 Storming Off RIDGLING

This change anyone's opinion on his drop to the claiming level?

[CSC]

AP Indy was a well known Ridgling, I really don't pay attention to that.

[Kasept]

SCRATCHES insignificant for the most part...

Markey Psychology out of the stake.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Steve,
I'm leary at the drop Storming Off is taking in the 6th. Coming off an allowance win at Monmouth in June and shows one published workout since. On paper, this one lays over the field, but I'm wondering why he's in for a tag today.

If he loses, the price will be good. Have a feeling a first time turfer is where to go if the favorite falls. Red Sandy was thought well enough to race in 2 stks races, tries turf. The negatives are no turf breeding, Cold Lukas...but he attracts Prado and gets blinkers...Might stab here.