How does one approach this?

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

This is the best advice you're going to get I think.

What about more specifics?? The Guaranteed Pick 4's????

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought it was a pretty ambitious spot myself. She must be doing well if they are shipping cross country to run on a surface she's never tried. I thought she was as good as any 3 year old filly I saw this year on dirt. I can't go near her in this race though she is bred well for the grass which might help.

JMO, but I think the "grass breeding = synthetic success" argument is wildly overplayed.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Agreed. It doesn't equal success. But, when it's a guess if they will handle the synthetics, like a lot of the NY based horses are this time around. I would prefer to see some turf breeding.

I treat it as a third surface, somewhere in between dirt and turf, so I don't really take breeding into account. That, of course, makes it difficult to bet synthetic races, which is why I generally stay away unless the runners have experience over the track.

[Bobby Fischer]

you don't want a really weak speed horse that is going to quit with the least bit of difficulty , but this ain't Keeneland. It isn't exactly two turf courses...
Keeneland's main track may actually be harder on route speed than it's turf course. I don't know that speed is a death sentence here.

I think you have to get on calracing and watch the allowance races at the distances, and you have to pay close mind to the surface this weekend.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Agreed. It doesn't equal success. But, when it's a guess if they will handle the synthetics, like a lot of the NY based horses are this time around. I would prefer to see some turf breeding.

This surface is playing completely different than the synthetics we've all come to hate.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hrfan

Why, explain why to him... because i would rather single Indian Blessing at a decent price, rather then Zenyatta at 1-5 vs by far the best group of horses she has ever faced

Mainly cause you never bet a favorite/all/all unless you are completely against the top choices in the other two legs. If you think the favorites have a chance then you'll lose money. If you want to be a chalk eater and bet a favorite then just throw all your money on it unless you are confident the chalk will lose in the other two legs in which case it shouldn't be an all bet, you should be dropping those favorites.

[dean smith]

Two cents from deep in the peanut gallery:

Maybe you guys are over-thinking the surface angle. You're psyching yourselves out. You would think this "how-he-takes-to-the-track" nonsense is the only factor in winning a race. If a jockey rams his ride up another horses ass and behind a wall of three others to finish eighth, everyone will hollar, "he didn't like the surface at all." But is that really the case? Everyone is talking about this synthetic surface like the Breeder's Cup is being run over broken glass on the moon. If anything, I'll try and find a reason a 15/1 might "take to the track" and emerge from the chaos of these fifteen horse stampedes, and try and find some of those big payouts you mentioned -- not why some favorite won't.

[The Bid]

Dean,

A lot of these jocks havent ridden this surface either. This surface will have everything to do with results

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by dean smith

Two cents from deep in the peanut gallery:

Maybe you guys are over-thinking the surface angle. You're psyching yourselves out. You would think this "how-he-takes-to-the-track" nonsense is the only factor in winning a race. If a jockey rams his ride up another horses ass and behind a wall of three others to finish eighth, everyone will hollar, "he didn't like the surface at all." But is that really the case? Everyone is talking about this synthetic surface like the Breeder's Cup is being run over broken glass on the moon. If anything, I'll try and find a reason a 15/1 might "take to the track" and emerge from the chaos of these fifteen horse stampedes, and try and find some of those big payouts you mentioned -- not why some favorite won't.

How, pray tell, do you intend on doing this, specifically? Thnx

[dean smith]

Well, dammit! That's what I'm still trying to figure out.

Listen, I'm way back here in the peanut gallery. I'm holding a ROI figure that's fallen below the handicapping equivalent of the Mendoza Line these past few months. I'm a cooler. Don't even read my ****. It's bad for your game to even lay eyes on the garbage I've typed. Carry on with your surface obsessing.