Stardom Bound

[King Glorious]

I don't think much of Haka and I'd say no, she doesn't stack up with what was in the Lewis. But when you look at the two fields, at least from a speed figure perspective, they were pretty even. Saucey Evening had run at least as well as anyone in the Lewis.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

And if both of them were in with Matto Mondo, a no name grass horse they both would have been drown. I would actually be more optimistic about the runner up in the Lewis.

Actually, Matto Mondo won the classic Polla de Potrillos (G1-Ch) as a 3yo down in Chile, over 1700m (8.5f). He won a G1 and a G3 at two, in fact, may have been champion 2yo down there. He was off for a year while his new owners waited for him to grow up so that the 6 months difference in age would not be a factor. He finally seems to be finding his form again, after 4 races where his new barn was trying to get to know him. (No, he didn't take to the hill or blinkers.)

[King Glorious]

I wish they'd buy Zenyatta.

"I think that's what the racing fans want, to put her against the boys in the Santa Anita Derby," Iavarone said. "I don't know what else she has to prove against the girls. She is special. Real special."

[dagulla]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but haka? she doesn't stack up to them, does she? and yes, far too early in the year to say any of them are anything as yet. still plenty of racing ahead.

Haka is going to be a very very good filly.

[Travis Stone]

I hope I'm wrong, but eventually stuff will catch up to her. Whether its traffic trouble which costs her a race, her synthetic late-kick does not translate to dirt or that despite how flashy she is, against boys, she's ends-up a few lengths slower.

If there was no Stardom Bound last year, there would have been a lot talk about how weak the 2YO filly division was. She's not exactly handling top-tiered horses so calling her the KY Derby winner is a bit aggressive.

But like I said, I hope I'm wrong. I hope she develops into a star to rally around this year.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by dagulla

Haka is going to be a very very good filly.

if you told me the sun would rise tomorrow, i'd have to get independant verification.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I hope I'm wrong, but eventually stuff will catch up to her. Whether its traffic trouble which costs her a race, her synthetic late-kick does not translate to dirt or that despite how flashy she is, against boys, she's ends-up a few lengths slower.

If there was no Stardom Bound last year, there would have been a lot talk about how weak the 2YO filly division was. She's not exactly handling top-tiered horses so calling her the KY Derby winner is a bit aggressive.

But like I said, I hope I'm wrong. I hope she develops into a star to rally around this year.

she looks good right now, on syns and vs her own kind. nothing she did today convinced me should could beat the best colts on the west coast, let alone the three year olds elsewhere-and what happens when she gets on dirt?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I hope I'm wrong, but eventually stuff will catch up to her. Whether its traffic trouble which costs her a race, her synthetic late-kick does not translate to dirt or that despite how flashy she is, against boys, she's ends-up a few lengths slower.

If there was no Stardom Bound last year, there would have been a lot talk about how weak the 2YO filly division was. She's not exactly handling top-tiered horses so calling her the KY Derby winner is a bit aggressive.

But like I said, I hope I'm wrong. I hope she develops into a star to rally around this year.

All of this is true but the same can be said for the 2yo males. The only ones that I thought were worth anything last year were Vineyard Haven and Midshipmen and both of them were sent to Dubai. I just don't think that I've seen a member of her generation that's better than her. I'm not so limited in my thinking that I feel it's necessary to differentiate between a female and a male. If she was a male and had done exactly what she's done, she'd be odds-on right now for the Derby.

I agree with Danzig that nothing she did today convinces me she could beat the best males out here but it's what she's done overall that convinces me. Her effort in the Juvenile Fillies was as strong as anything I've seen from any of the males. I also don't understand the general feeling that she won't handle the dirt. Sure, it's a question that's got to be answered but in my opinion, she's got the same chances of liking it as she does of not so for anyone to cite that as a negative is a reach.

[ateamstupid]

I for one hope she cruises in the SA Derby so I can bet against her in Louisville.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Sure, it's a question that's got to be answered but in my opinion, she's got the same chances of liking it as she does of not so for anyone to cite that as a negative is a reach.

But ... she's going to be facing proven dirt horses. So if you have a horse that's 50/50 to like the dirt against a bunch of horses WE KNOW can handle it, isn't that a negative especially at the short price she might be?

[packerbacker7964]

Originally Posted by Danzig

if you told me the sun would rise tomorrow, i'd have to get independant verification.

I'd invest in a flashlight

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

But ... she's going to be facing proven dirt horses. So if you have a horse that's 50/50 to like the dirt against a bunch of horses WE KNOW can handle it, isn't that a negative especially at the short price she might be?

I don't see it that way. I see it as she's got the ability so that puts her at an advantage. All things being equal, she beats them. What they better hope for is that she doesn't handle it so great so it can be an equalizing factor. When I look at a race, I like to look and see who I think is the best horse and then try to see what possible disadvantages they will have to overcome. Take for example Big Brown in the Florida Derby last year. People make a big deal about him being in a far outside post. To me, that disadvantage wasn't big enough to overcome the tremendous talent advantage he had over his competition. In other words, if all else was equal, then the post would have been a pause for concern. But all else wasn't equal. If all else was equal for Stardom Bound going into the Derby, the dirt would be a bigger concern. But I don't think all else will be equal. Also, I'm not looking at it from a wagering perspective so her price in Louisville is irrelevant to me. Come Derby day, I might love her for the win but bet against her because of her price and the potential to make money in other ways.

I think it's also worth noting that it's often been said by many horsemen that Churchill's track on Derby day is nothing like it is on other days. There have been many examples of horses that have trained well over it and didn't run well in the Derby. Just because a horse may like dirt doesn't mean they'll like Churchill on Derby day. Holy Bull hated it.

[Travis Stone]

Holy Bull and Big Brown aside...

I'll argue the 2YO males versus females of last year to the grave. Midshipman and Vineyard Haven alone would have man-handled (is that appropriate?) any filly in the country. In the BC Juvenile Midshipman and Square Eddie ran huge in the against the grain of the track. Pioneerof the Nile was fifth in the race, and has come back twice now to win. West Side Bernie, who was sixth, ran second in the Delta Jackpot and put in a nifty run while wide the other day at Gulfstream against the bias.

Stardom Bound beat Dream Empress, who was an uninspiring fourth in the Golden Rod, and is giving-up on the dirt career and is pointing to the English Oaks. Sky Diva ran third in the BC and then third in the Demoiselle, Dave's Revenge, who was fourth, ran sixth in the Santa Ysabel and couldn't hit the board in an allowance last week!

The argument is futile.

Stardom Bound is fun to watch, she's a pretty horse and those come from behinders are always exciting. But her win the BC JF was the same run which run almost every single race over that surface that weekend. And yesterday she finished nowhere near as impressive visually as Pioneerof the Nile. To say stuff like this...

Originally Posted by King Glorious

She's the Derby winner unless they cancel the race.

...is over the top for a horse who hasn't tried her late kick on dirt, nor against a much better group in the 3YO males.

[TheSpyder]

I agree with everything you're saying but if you were to use pure logic this early in the Deby process, how many winners would anyone be able to pick? Horses move forward or backward, doing better or worse on surface changes. Maybe Stardom Bound will improve on dirt, maybe she will move forward as she grows up. I, for one, am hopeing such and believe there's a chance for her to become something very special.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Holy Bull and Big Brown aside...

I'll argue the 2YO males versus females of last year to the grave. Midshipman and Vineyard Haven alone would have man-handled (is that appropriate?) any filly in the country. In the BC Juvenile Midshipman and Square Eddie ran huge in the against the grain of the track. Pioneerof the Nile was fifth in the race, and has come back twice now to win. West Side Bernie, who was sixth, ran second in the Delta Jackpot and put in a nifty run while wide the other day at Gulfstream against the bias.

Stardom Bound beat Dream Empress, who was an uninspiring fourth in the Golden Rod, and is giving-up on the dirt career and is pointing to the English Oaks. Sky Diva ran third in the BC and then third in the Demoiselle, Dave's Revenge, who was fourth, ran sixth in the Santa Ysabel and couldn't hit the board in an allowance last week!

The argument is futile.

Stardom Bound is fun to watch, she's a pretty horse and those come from behinders are always exciting. But her win the BC JF was the same run which run almost every single race over that surface that weekend. And yesterday she finished nowhere near as impressive visually as Pioneerof the Nile. To say stuff like this...



...is over the top for a horse who hasn't tried her late kick on dirt, nor against a much better group in the 3YO males.

[King Glorious]

I guess my point is that beating better horses doesn't automatically make you better. If Curlin went out and ran a 1:57 and won by 15 and beat Past the Point, Barcola, and Zappa.......then Zenyatta went out the next race and beat Big Brown, Heatseeker, Tiago, and Commentator by a nose in 2:02.....it wouldn't mean that Zenyatta was better than Curlin. Just that she beat a better field. I won't argue that the females were tougher than the males last year in the 2yo division because I agree with you. I don't think much of the group beyond Vineyard Haven and Midshipmen but despite that, they still were a better group. But just because Pioneerof the Nile and West Side Bernie were well beaten and have come back to run decent races doesn't mean that their decent races have been better than Stardom Bound. I don't think either of Pioneer's races have been better than Stardom Bound's BC. Better than what she did yesterday, yes. But not better than the best I've seen from her.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

All of this is true but the same can be said for the 2yo males. The only ones that I thought were worth anything last year were Vineyard Haven and Midshipmen and both of them were sent to Dubai. I just don't think that I've seen a member of her generation that's better than her. I'm not so limited in my thinking that I feel it's necessary to differentiate between a female and a male. If she was a male and had done exactly what she's done, she'd be odds-on right now for the Derby.

I agree with Danzig that nothing she did today convinces me she could beat the best males out here but it's what she's done overall that convinces me. Her effort in the Juvenile Fillies was as strong as anything I've seen from any of the males. I also don't understand the general feeling that she won't handle the dirt. Sure, it's a question that's got to be answered but in my opinion, she's got the same chances of liking it as she does of not so for anyone to cite that as a negative is a reach.

but...

two things may work against her. one, you never want a horse going to the derby that is still learning new things-dirt would be a huge change for her, she's never touched it on the track.
the second thing-there are colts out there who already relish the dirt surface, and will be in their element.

then there's one thing many forget. fillies typically mature faster than colts; that's why so many two year old fillies fool people into thinking they can win the derby, because they most likely could beat their male counterparts at that age.
but a lot changes between january and may, she'll find a far more level playing field by then.
i think stardom bound is a good horse, but i don't find her to be a particularly special one.

if the concession is that she couldn't beat males in cali, on her surface, i don't see how she can win vs a bigger field on a foreign surface.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but...

two things may work against her. one, you never want a horse going to the derby that is still learning new things-dirt would be a huge change for her, she's never touched it on the track.
the second thing-there are colts out there who already relish the dirt surface, and will be in their element.

then there's one thing many forget. fillies typically mature faster than colts; that's why so many two year old fillies fool people into thinking they can win the derby, because they most likely could beat their male counterparts at that age.
but a lot changes between january and may, she'll find a far more level playing field by then.
i think stardom bound is a good horse, but i don't find her to be a particularly special one.

if the concession is that she couldn't beat males in cali, on her surface, i don't see how she can win vs a bigger field on a foreign surface.

All of what you say is very valid. Ideally, you'd love to have every question answered beforehand and have the distance be the only one left. But we won't get that with her or many of the other California based horses. So of course the dirt will be a question but I just don't see any reason to believe that she won't handle it so instead of assuming she won't, I'm basing my assumption on the fact that she will. If she will, I see no other disadvantages for her. The fact that there are colts that will relish is it not as important to me. They may like it more but not have the talent to beat her. Like Golden Doc A might relish the synthetic more than Indian Blessing does but she didn't have a big her talent disadvantage was bigger than her track advantage. So then the question becomes whether or not you think that, all else being equal, she has the talent. I think she does. Your point about the fillies maturing faster is not necessarily in play here. It could be but there's no evidence to say that it's the truth here. As it is, she has every right to continue to develop as the colts do. Until I see where I think they've passed her by, I have to believe that she still has the advantage that she had. The last thing is that I don't think the concession is that she can't be males here. At this point, I'd make her the clear favorite for the SA Derby.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

All of what you say is very valid. Ideally, you'd love to have every question answered beforehand and have the distance be the only one left. But we won't get that with her or many of the other California based horses. So of course the dirt will be a question but I just don't see any reason to believe that she won't handle it so instead of assuming she won't, I'm basing my assumption on the fact that she will. If she will, I see no other disadvantages for her. The fact that there are colts that will relish is it not as important to me. They may like it more but not have the talent to beat her. Like Golden Doc A might relish the synthetic more than Indian Blessing does but she didn't have a big her talent disadvantage was bigger than her track advantage. So then the question becomes whether or not you think that, all else being equal, she has the talent. I think she does. Your point about the fillies maturing faster is not necessarily in play here. It could be but there's no evidence to say that it's the truth here. As it is, she has every right to continue to develop as the colts do. Until I see where I think they've passed her by, I have to believe that she still has the advantage that she had. The last thing is that I don't think the concession is that she can't be males here. At this point, I'd make her the clear favorite for the SA Derby.

horses can only mature to a point i would think-perhaps she reached that point earlier, and her peers are still in progress? it's not inconceivable. some mentioned past fillies who failed to go on at three, and i think that early maturity was the explanation in all of them. perhaps in her case it may turn out differently..
at any rate, it's fun watching it all unfold...i'm certainly not against her doing well; but i'm also of the opinion that she's not any better than any of the other top fillies over the past few years. she might be a wow-er, but i just don't think she's a WOW-er.

[packerbacker7964]

I remember Ex. Lady and fews years back. She was a great runner. Serna's Song and Silverbulletday Were also great fillies who looked like they were going to hit the board. I hate to bring it up but the last Filly who tried to keep up with the boys in the Derby ran herself to DEATH. I still hate that Larry Jones let the media and the owners talk him into doing something he didn't want to do with her. R.I.P. Girl we miss you!!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964

I remember Ex. Lady and fews years back. She was a great runner. Serna's Song and Silverbulletday Were also great fillies who looked like they were going to hit the board. I hate to bring it up but the last Filly who tried to keep up with the boys in the Derby ran herself to DEATH. I still hate that Larry Jones let the media and the owners talk him into doing something he didn't want to do with her. R.I.P. Girl we miss you!!!

disagree completely with this statement. you're way off. matter of fact, she stumbled when changing leads in the gallop out-which is one of the more common things you hear about a horse breaking down, that they were in the process of changing leads-pine island is another. do you think pine island was in over her head that day?? i doubt it.