4/4 (AQU): Wood (G1); Carter (G1); Bay Shore (G3); Excelsior (G3)

[blackthroatedwind]

Giant Moon has next to no chance.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Giant Moon has next to no chance.

Agreed. I was just trying to be nice for a change. . .

[NTamm1215]

I'll be surprised if Capt. Candyman Can doesn't win the Bay Shore.

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll be surprised if Capt. Candyman Can doesn't win the Bay Shore.

NT

You're probably right. . . which makes the PK4 basically unplayable.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Agreed. I was just trying to be nice for a change. . .

In my opinion, it's always nice to help someone not lose their money.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In my opinion, it's always nice to help someone not lose their money.

Then why bet?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Then why bet?

I don't get what you mean.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't get what you mean.

You're "helping" someone lose their money in a way when you make a winning bet. . . or at least profiting off their loss. . . I guess from your perspective as a public handicapper it's different. . .

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You're "helping" someone lose their money in a way when you make a winning bet. . . or at least profiting off their loss. . .

Of course you profit from the losses of others......but you don't help them lose. They will lose regardless of whether or not someone else wins or even bets.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Of course you profit from the losses of others......but you don't help them lose. They will lose regardless of whether or not someone else wins or even bets.

But not if you change their opinions. Like I said in my edit above - I'm sure you have different considerations as a public handicapper. It's also probably not worth thinking of things on such a small scale when you consider the size of pools, etc. Don't mind my ramblings. . . just trying to avoid writing a paper. . .

[blackthroatedwind]

People should bet on their own opinions.....even if they're as bad as Giant Moon in the Excelsior.

I've never been a particular fan of Giant Moon ( as we discussed here last year ) and his last race was particularly mediocre.

[eajinabi]

West Side Bernie running again?? Geez

[pick4]

Capt. Candy Man is not money in the bank. He was outclassed in his last race but take a look back at the Hutch. Those horses came back to run up the track in their next races. Beating Hello Broadway and Break Water Edison might have deserved kudos in November but not in a slow paced 7f race at Gulfstream in February.

Taqurab will go to the front and get the lead and might be tough to catch. Not For Silver ran against a speed favoring Laurel track and cutting back might be a good thing for him. I think Capt Candy Man is more hype than anything and is the type of horse you want to take a chance against.
I might include him in my pick 4 but it will be a defensive play.

The Excelsior does not have a clear cut favorite any one of four could win the race. The Wood looks like a Gotham II which the top two placing horses switching final positions. The Carter has the favorites as the speed and this race looks like there will be a pace meltdown. Tale of Ekati, Kodiak Kowboy, or even Ah Day could close to win.

This ALL stakes pick 4 has potential to pay a pretty penny if things break right.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

West Side Bernie running again?? Geez

It would be a shame if West Side Bernie keeps Dunkirk out of the Kentucky Derby. If I owned a top quality race horse I would skip the Breeders Cup and point to the Delta Jackpot.

[slotdirt]

Honestly, Pletcher knew the game, he gambled on Hallandale, and lost. If you don't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby, chances are, you probably don't deserve to be in the Derby, and Dunkirk is no exception.

[Travis Stone]

It's a good sequence, not sure if it's a good betting opportunity, but good racing.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Honestly, Pletcher knew the game, he gambled on Hallandale, and lost. If you don't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby, chances are, you probably don't deserve to be in the Derby, and Dunkirk is no exception.

um, Dunkirk really deserves to be in the Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pick4

It would be a shame if West Side Bernie keeps Dunkirk out of the Kentucky Derby. If I owned a top quality race horse I would skip the Breeders Cup and point to the Delta Jackpot.

West Side Bernie didn't really run that bad in the BC and really the only inexplicably bad race he's ever run was at Turfway last time out. I understand your argument but I don't think WSB should be the object of your ire.

Also, it is due time that everyone come to grips with the fact that the rules have been the same all the way. It's not like Pletcher chose to run his horse in 1 graded stakes race and then told that he had to win to be guaranteed a spot. He knew what was at stake last week. He lost and then he b.itched about it.

If Dunkirk finishes 21st on the list it will be a shame that he's kept out by Mafaaz because the brain trust at CD thinks they need to turn the Derby into a global event. Europeans may know what you're talking about when you say "First Saturday in May" it just doesn't have anything to do with the Ky Derby.

NT

[Travis Stone]

Dunkirk ran second to the likely favorite in the Kentucky Derby, he deserves a shot, but rules are rules, and he might get left out, which would be a shame.

West Side Bernie has run some decent races. And the Delta Jackpot, for which people love to bash, has become a legitimate race. Big Drama, who won this past weekend, took it down last year. It's not like it's some hapless bum. Delta Downs did something very few racetracks are doing well: growing a race. People bash it because it's $750k and counts a lot towards the Derby, but then you should hate the system, not the race.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

um, Dunkirk really deserves to be in the Derby.

Not really, but hey, we all have our opinions.