Derby Fever: Where 'stupid' is contagious

[Kasept]

Fair point Andy. Rain and Bird may absolutely be on a par level wise. But at least if he's a mediocrity, we know Atomic Rain wants dirt and appears best suited or competitive on it. Mine That Bird seems like a mediocrity on synthetics with no promise of dirt improvement.

This all leads back to the question of how to ensure the best field for this one particular, and overblown, race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Ogygian

I was only comparing possible odds, in 05 Giacomos morning line was 50-1, there were 4 others listed at 50-1 morning line. He was for all intensive purposes listed as one of the 5 longest shots to win the race.So was he given a snowball's chance, no he wasn't. If Atomic Rain makes the race, he finish a well beaten 18th. What aggravates me more is cross entering in the Derby and Oaks and possibly taking up a spot. Its not like if AR goes he will be taking a "better" horses spot.

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

And the answer to that would be no.

Glad we settled this.

[johnny pinwheel]

the whole thread is mute.....since when are connections not trying to get in if the horse is healthy? for alot of these people its a once in a lifetime deal called derby fever. usually 14 or 15 have no shot but are entered, what makes this year any different?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

It would be tough business-wise to make a move like that...

In my opinion, one of the best Derby's ever was '97 with Silver Charm, when they only had to use one gate.

[Ogygian]

Ie...Scott Speed, Joe Nemechek, Mike Bliss of the Nascar World...somehow they make the field everyrace and shockingly enough they crash, cause a crash or they have engine trouble and finish near the back of the field. Or even the Tampa Bay Rays, how many people gave them a shot last year??
I will never fault anyone for running in the Derby, I would not want to keep asking myself "what if".
Famous quote..."It is better to have tried and failed, then to have never even tried at all"

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

And the answer to that would be no.

Glad we settled this.

It's a complicated discussion, but it certainly seems especially relevent this year, in light of Churchill claiming their racetrack is certified as " safe " by the NTRA. While I am sure their intentions are noble, and they have done whatever is possible to ensure a safe surface, the question of whether or not a race is " safe " with 20 horses thundering around that oval seems applicable this year.

It's a long debate, and I am sure there are arguments for both sides, but IMO a stronger argument can be made for reducing the field size. All these " these horses ( it's really people in this case ) have earned a right to run " arguments don't hold water for me. I realize they run 20 plus horse fields overseas....but not on racetracks like Churchill Down's dirt course.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Mine That Bird seems like a mediocrity on synthetics with no promise of dirt improvement.

Never mind that Mine That Bird's two highest Beyer figures came on regular dirt in his last two starts.

Spring 3 year olds can mature rapidly, and maybe Breen sees him going in the right direction and believes he is coming up to the race the right way.

Except when they are named "Mine That Bird", apparently.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The best horse B L Woolley Jr. has ever trained ...

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

the whole thread is mute.....since when are connections not trying to get in if the horse is healthy? for alot of these people its a once in a lifetime deal called derby fever. usually 14 or 15 have no shot but are entered, what makes this year any different?

Uh oh. My pedagogical sense is tingling. Fighting it, fighting it,......Nope, can't.

The word you want is 'moot' (rhymes with 'loot'), which is not even pronounced the same way as 'mute' (unable or unwilling to speak). The original meaning was an assembly for discussion, as in the Entmoot in Lord of the Rings. From there it became any discussion, then a discussion of fictitious causes by way of practice, and nowadays is used to mean something already settled so that any discussion is for practice only.

Your word for the day: moot

[Linny]

Pedigree Ann, you missed "intensive purposes" at the bottom of page one.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Uh oh. My pedagogical sense is tingling. Fighting it, fighting it,......Nope, can't.

The word you want is 'moot' (rhymes with 'loot'), which is not even pronounced the same way as 'mute' (unable or unwilling to speak). The original meaning was an assembly for discussion, as in the Entmoot in Lord of the Rings. From there it became any discussion, then a discussion of fictitious causes by way of practice, and nowadays is used to mean something already settled so that any discussion is for practice only.

Your word for the day: moot

When I was at CDI, I got an email from a girl in Marketing where she called something a "mute point." I made every attempt to never speak with her again. DERBY BARBIE!!

[Pedigree Ann]

It might be noted that Mine That Bird received the Sovereign Award as champion 2yo colt in Canada. All of his graded earnings were from winning a G3 as a 2yo.

Hey, he finished 3/4 length ahead of G2 Lexington winner Advice at Sunland. If Advice enters, why not Mine That Bird?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world.

Giacomo at least had run four straight Beyers of 93 or better in his four starts coming into the Derby. An avg of 96 over those four races.

No horse in this years Kentucky Derby field comes in off of 4 straight Beyers in the 90's or better.

Even if people didn't believe his form was made up of one better than looked race after another - and didn't think he was likely to improve form because of pace, distance, and trainer - he still had to be respected some for his consistancy.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No horse in this years Kentucky Derby field comes in off of 4 straight Beyers in the 90's or better.

Musket Man is very upset that you forgot about him.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He does edge in ... I was looking at pool 3 pp's ... he had a 92-91-90 and the Illi Derby race wasn't showing.

Quality Road comes within a point of making it as well.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's hardly an epidemic. The connections of Mafaaz, Charitable Man, Big Drama, and Terrain have all passed. That's more voluntary passing in one year than I think we've seen in the last three years combined.

This really hurts me too, as I had narrowed the Derby Super down to a Trifecta with the assumption that Terrain would automatically finish fourth, which he always does regardless of the competition.

Back to the drawing board.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

This really hurts me too, as I had narrowed the Derby Super down to a Trifecta with the assumption that Terrain would automatically finish fourth, which he always does regardless of the competition.

Back to the drawing board.

Once you proclaimed that I was so convinced that I gave BBB $12 so that he could hit me a $6,840 Pick 4. I would then use that $6,840 to play ALL-ALL-ALL-Terrain. Al Stall is a killjoy.

NT

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He does edge in ... I was looking at pool 3 pp's ... he had a 92-91-90 and the Illi Derby race wasn't showing.

Quality Road comes within a point of making it as well.

One other would have passed that test had he had not gotten hurt.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Once you proclaimed that I was so convinced that I gave BBB $12 so that he could hit me a $6,840 Pick 4. I would then use that $6,840 to play ALL-ALL-ALL-Terrain. Al Stall is a killjoy.

NT

Yea, I've been pretty steadfast about this since for some time now.

Like you, I now have next to no idea how to even begin thinking about the Derby.