4/21: Derby Works & Notes

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Wait, Chocolate Candy is a gray?

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Exactly... To expand on this morning's thoughts, Mike Welsch said was laboring a bit through deep stretch but that may have been a bit a function of the way the track was and the length of his work.

Gray? Are sure you watched the right horse? CHOCOLATE CANDY is not gray.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Wait, Chocolate Candy is a gray?

That would be a miracle unless he got completely covered in gray slop.

[Sightseek]

Good thing Stevies on dapple patrol.

[HaloWishingwell]

I must have an imposter of CHOCOLATE CANDY on my desktop because he sure isn't gray. Maybe you were looking at DUNKIRK.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Wait, Chocolate Candy is a gray?

Sorry! My fault.. Meant that about General Quarters...

(Don't know why I confused it in with the Choc. Candy follow up...)

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Sorry! My fault.. Meant that about General Quarters...

(Don't know why I confused it in with the Choc. Candy follow up...)

How did GQ work ? DRF's take wasn't positive.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

How did GQ work ? DRF's take wasn't positive.

He has a very strange, funky way of going..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Good thing Stevies on dapple patrol.

Watch it there Derby Barbie... I'll put some dapples on your hind end.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Watch it there Derby Barbie... I'll put some dapples on your hind end.

!!!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

go to the whip !!

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't worry about the time so much here as the track was pretty dull today. He actually went another quarter to make it a full 7f effort. The work was very solid and Baffert was really pleased with it. Next week's outing will be a slight blowout so this was his 'major' work according to Baffert.


Baffert said something to that effect today in his typically jocular fashion... He said had he been in company with a target they'd make Pioneer the Derby favorite off the work.

Nothing beats confidence, typical Baffert. I just listened to Mike Welsch's DRF report, didn't get home in time for ATRB. If you are a backer of POTN you had to like what you heard. One of too many to consider.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Good thing Stevies on dapple patrol.

Dapples are always a good sign

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by jms62

I can see this coming a mile away.. POTN will drag me in and come Derby evening I will once again vow never to bet a syn only horse until one wins.

The same might happen to me. I like I Want Revenge a lot on top at this point, but I might like POTN underneath. Combined with his solid dirt/10f pedigree, positive works over the surface would obviously be a good sign, but I am not sure I quite agree with this statement from Welsch:
"Any questions regarding Pioneerof the Nile's ability to adapt to dirt after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces throughout his career should have been erased after watching him glide across the track immediately after the break." (http://www.drf.com/news/article/103135.html)

Isn't saying that one good work means that "any questions...have been erased," along with calling him a "demon on the dirt" in the title of the article, a bit over the top?

[blackthroatedwind]

I look forward to a full post-Derby review of this thread. Aside from horses changing their colors for the Derby, I think the misleading information will be plentiful.

We'll see.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I look forward to a full post-Derby review of this thread.

When is there ever an after-the-fact review?

[Travis Stone]

Every horse is supposed to look good, work good, look sharp, work sharp, handle the surface in the mornings etc. etc. etc. Why? Because they're the best right now. They are the top 20, figuratively, of the group... they've survived a massive crop of peers, tons of races, lots of issues and have made it. So, to expect journalistic eyes (of all walks... even those who don't watch horses daily, but write about it in blogs and in papers as if they do) to separate them like one might a group of $10k claimers on a Thursday afternoon is wishful thinking.

For 364 days out of the year most people bet, wager and handicap without a single word about how a horse looks. This race is no different.

[Star of the North]

Still looking for the video of the actual works....

Anybody have a link to some video?

So far I have found video of Mike Welsch telling me about the works...

and the YouTube page for Kentucky Derby has Michelle Yu showing me how to make a julep....

Did anyone working at the track today maybe point a camera at a horse?

Any help appreciated,

SOTN

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I would probably expect the nation's highest priced yearling at public auction sold in '07 (Dunkirk) to look the best. And the nations highest priced 2yo sold at public auction in '08 (Desert Party) should probably work the best.

Horses like General Quarters (who was a 20k yearling - and debuted for a tag) shouldn't be dazzling either in the flesh or AM. Same goes for Musket Man - who was a 15K yearling and a 35K May 2yo sale RNA.

The two best horses in I Want Revenge (95K May 2yo RNA) and Quality Road (110K yearling RNA for a sire's who's avg was 2.5 times higher) should probably not be getting rave reviews at this time ... but since they are trained by a pair of magicians .. I wouldn't get that excited if they are.

Basically ... the only way I'd upgrade a horse is if there was a strong consensus going around that a horse like General Quarters or a Musket Man just looks amazing in the flesh and turned in some jaw dropping works.

The only way I'd downgrade a horse is if a horse like a Dunkirk or a Desert Party are getting poor reviews all around.

[Sightseek]

The only person who films their horse's works regularly is Susan Casner:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2HabJMs-z8

Keeneland didn't post work videos this year.