Morning Line has The Tin Man 10-1

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

I think he is a better horse now. If I remember correctly he just ran off and got swallowed. He has learned.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I think he is a better horse now. If I remember correctly he just ran off and got swallowed. He has learned.

No he ran second all the way around and was passed by five horses in the stretch. I'm looking at the PP's.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Scav

I tend to not favor what happens in Dubai that much quite honestly. While the money is unbeatable, you just don't know what you are getting when you come back...Not saying this is in reference to The Tin Man, but in general

I agree with you that horses are often not the same after going to Dubai. But with The Tin Man they gave him a 3 month rest and he came back and won at Hollywood Park. So I would have to assume that he he came out of the trip alright.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

You gotta give him a little chance, M. Smith was on him last time at Arlington...that is when he was an immediate toss.....

[Scav]

Also, I am going to be taking a HEAVY look at Touch of Land. PVal did not fit this guy when he came here last time and I remember him making a MONSTER move last year only to get into some trouble. I like how the jock is coming here also, just a thought

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

I think he should be 10-1 against these.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

You gotta give him a little chance, M. Smith was on him last time at Arlington...that is when he was an immediate toss.....

No way, he isn't going to wire this field and won't have any response to the closers in the stretch. imo

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No way, he isn't going to wire this field and won't have any response to the closers in the stretch. imo

It was a joke..FUNNY HOW, FUNNY LIKE A CLOWN?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

Doesnt matter what the m/l odds are. Odds only matter once they're off.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by Scav

Also, I am going to be taking a HEAVY look at Touch of Land. PVal did not fit this guy when he came here last time and I remember him making a MONSTER move last year only to get into some trouble. I like how the jock is coming here also, just a thought

You are correct by taking a HEAVY look at him.

Also take a heavy look at Phoenix Reach.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by moodwalker

You are correct by taking a HEAVY look at him.

Also take a heavy look at Phoenix Reach.

Phoenix Reach is my pick. I hope his odds stay decent.

[ceejay]

Looking at the Euros, Soldier Hollow looks interesting to me....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by ceejay

Looking at the Euros, Soldier Hollow looks interesting to me....

Well he's got a great arlington turf jock in Douglas. I just don't know how tough those fields were in Germany this year, where by the way he hasn't managed to win yet this year. I can't imagine that this race represents any kind of class relief for him.

[Scav]

I just thoroughly looked at the PP's for the Million. These Euro's LOOK RIDICULOUS. Ace, Solider's Hollow, Phoenix Reach and I am not throwing out Touch of Land. I went down from 1-11 so I am looking at Ace, and I am like "WOW, serious Timeform ratings, and I think he loves lasix" then I go down to Touch of Land, and I see the same progession as he took last year, and I SWEAR he made some sort of monster move in last years Million, Euro jock comes here, Then I go down to Soldier Hollow and I see 1) Douglas, great breeding for the distance, competitive timeform ratings, THEN i go to Phoenix Reach, while I am not a fan of the layoff, look at the horses he has run up against(Zenna's Rob Roy, Rakti, Alexander Goldrun, Azamour(FRIGGIN RAT IN THE BC TURF but tough in Euro), Bago (another rat but tough in euro)

Man, I am so excited about this weekend, these races are going to be awesome to watch in person...I will say this though, I am going to be in the paddock for this race because I want to see what some of these horses look ilke, if I can't make a decision, I might be going 5-6 deep in this race....

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No he ran second all the way around and was passed by five horses in the stretch. I'm looking at the PP's.

Yes but he ran off. That race was on soft turf. If the course is fast he is a player. The horse is definitley better now. I think he is in deep but he is going to have an impact on the race. Probably will ruin some other front running types. If I could read the damn timeform crap I would have some idea what the foreign horses do. How in Gods name do they handicap races over there besides watching replays?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes but he ran off. That race was on soft turf. If the course is fast he is a player. The horse is definitley better now. I think he is in deep but he is going to have an impact on the race. Probably will ruin some other front running types. If I could read the damn timeform crap I would have some idea what the foreign horses do. How in Gods name do they handicap races over there besides watching replays?

He'll be a factor, yes. He'll be one of the leading horses spread across the track as they straighten for home. By the time the wire arrives he'll be no better than fourth.

[Scav]

Note: I don't know if this is an angle or not but Gaff went to Dubai also and his first race back in the states was a decent race, only to throw a complete clunker next out...

I know Tin ran well last time, could this be his clunker?

I am thinking I am gonna try for some Euro lovin and throw in English Channel, maybe just English Channel and Ace, but that will cause some serious anxiety....

[ArlJim78]

I think it could be another year where 5 or 6 horses are in the win photo.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Scav

Note: I don't know if this is an angle or not but Gaff went to Dubai also and his first race back in the states was a decent race, only to throw a complete clunker next out...

I know Tin ran well last time, could this be his clunker?

I am thinking I am gonna try for some Euro lovin and throw in English Channel, maybe just English Channel and Ace, but that will cause some serious anxiety....

I wouldn't really say that Gaff ran good when he came back. He ran 3rd in a 7 horse field at Pimlico. It wasn't a great field. I think the only decent horse in the race was Friendly Island. A horse called Celtic Innis ran 2nd. The rest of the field was Better Than Bonds, Gold Cluster, Kazoo and Crafty Schemer.

Acually I take that back. I am editing this post. I just watched that Pimlico race and I do think that Gaff ran a pretty good race that day.

Your theory can be true in some cases. A horse can get back from a long trip and may run well the first time but then the fatigue kicks in after that.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I wouldn't really say that Gaff ran good when he came back. He ran 3rd in a 7 horse field at Pimlico. It wasn't a great field. I think the only decent horse in the race was Friendly Island. A horse called Celtic Innis ran 2nd. The rest of the field was Better Than Bonds, Gold Cluster, Kazoo and Crafty Schemer.

Acually I take that back. I am editing this post. I just watched that Pimlico race and I do think that Gaff ran a pretty good race that day.

Your theory can be true in some cases. A horse can get back from a long trip and may run well the first time but then the fatigue kicks in after that.

I just watched Gaff get his ass beat at god damn Mountaineer with my money on him. . He is definitely not the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector last winter...