Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What are you a dissenting nihilist?

This is a BEYER fueled forum. Whichever horse got the highest BEYER ran FASTER and thus BETTER. I'd say, from the NUMBERS, Zenyatta is just not FAST ENOUGH.

Interesting number even after the new synth Beyers were instituted, where the top beyers are higher and the lower one's are adjusted more modestly. One must conclude The Beyer for Z was not too impressive if the number is correct otherwise there would be an even greater gap prior to the new synth beyers.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST. So, he must be one of the FAST horses that RA has beaten; as are those plugs she rolled over this weekend with that perfect setup?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

I agree with you. I dont really care about figures, I dont bet enough to really care.. I have my own method of madness that only seems to work at Saratoga... so I only bet Saratoga (where I make a lil money) & big race days (where I lose money).

Thats the point though... there really are no fast horses especially if she keeps running against fillies and mares on the poly. Rachel's fast... there are some boys out there that arent fast compared to fast horses in other years, but are MUCH faster than the horses big Z's been beating.

I dont blame the owners for staying in their back yard and winning purse after purse without having to put out much effort. i DO think they were chickens for scratching her on Oaks day... because of RAIN!!?!? But if they want to win a HOY, which is what the man is saying... they have to grow a pair and run against something other than the junk they've been beating for a couple years now. Since they've never acted like this before, I guess I have to see it to believe it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In theory, Rachel Alexandra is supposed to move way up and improve dramatically over her next few races after making a barn change from Hal Wiggins to Steve Asmussen.

It's common sense as far as stats go ... but it's also hard to imagine she could improve that much more when you look at her 3yo form for Hal and that Oaks win in her final start.

I actually think RA was atleast as refreshing as any horse I ever remember in all my time following racing when she was with Wiggins .. and I say that because of two trends that have dominated racing recently.

#1.) The quality horses in almost every division are very low rated performance wise from a historical standpoint.

#2.) The trainer factor has become as unbearably annoying to witness as it's been profitable to follow.


The thing that was so great about RA ... is that she kept running these races that were historically outstanding performances for early season 3yo fillies going long ... and was doing it not for a trainer with too good to be true numbers ... but rather, doing it for a trainer who had comically poor numbers .. bad enough numbers to suggest he was utterly incompetent if you're foolish enough to believe that some of the other guys are taking no advantages.

When RA was with Wiggins ... she was bar none the easiest horse to root for I ever remember .. at least in my mind. I still think she's very easy to root for because you know how real she is.

John Sheriffs is one of my favorite trainers of all-time ... but he has some magic to him. I've never seen a guy better at cranking them up. He had the freakiest stats of all-time with first time starters when he trained for 505 .. and now he's like Frankel-esque post 505.

Zenyatta isn't an easy horse for me to root for at all. A one dimension closer with a perfect style for synthetic .. and a single dirt race that I feel was a little overrated.

RA is way easier to root for of the two.

As for who ran the better race on Saturday ... if Zenyatta was in that race at Belmont Park she still would have been beat by RA even though there were two speeds in there. If RA was at HP against Zenyatta Saturday ... I believe RA would have run terrible on that synthetic because virtually every Asmussen horse going further than 4.5 furlongs runs below their form on it - many way below their form.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST. So, he must be one of the FAST horses that RA has beaten; as are those plugs she rolled over this weekend with that perfect setup?

now to address this point. Mine That Bird got much faster when he changed his running style. He's not super fast but he is capable of running fast especially the last 3/8ths of a race.

The plugs she beat in the Oaks and Mother Goose are SLOW horses. BUT SHE'S WON BY FREAKING 20 LENGHTS!!!!!!!! In UNBELIEVABLY fast times! Fat man, repeat after me.. ONE MINUTE AND FORTY SIX SECONDS AND ONE/FIFTH. that is fast my friend

[Gander]

Theres a matchup that may happen on Sunday at Belmont which I am looking forward to even more...Driven by Success and Fabulous Strike meet again in the Tom Fool. Last time they met it was the Carter and both ran exceptionally well but got understandingly tired enough to both lose (Kodiak Kowboy won).

I know it wont get the ink of a hypothetical Rachel vs Zenyatta, but these are 2 very talented horses and I cant wait to see them go at it.

[SniperSB23]

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories...ategory=SPORTS

To make the race more alluring for Zenyatta owner Jerry Moss, the New York Racing Association might change their purse structure and increase the purse for the Go for Wand and/or Personal Ensign.

"NYRA generally does not sweeten pots or provide incentives but this could be a situation that might warrant that consideration," NYRA president and CEO Charlie Hayward said in an e-mail. "I know (Zenyatta's owner) Mr. (Jerry) Moss opened the door to coming East and we will spend this week finding out what that means."

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

now to address this point. Mine That Bird got much faster when he changed his running style. He's not super fast but he is capable of running fast especially the last 3/8ths of a race.

The plugs she beat in the Oaks and Mother Goose are SLOW horses. BUT SHE'S WON BY FREAKING 20 LENGHTS!!!!!!!! In UNBELIEVABLY fast times! Fat man, repeat after me.. ONE MINUTE AND FORTY SIX SECONDS AND ONE/FIFTH. that is fast my friend

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I think she ran AWESOME in last years distaff... prolly her 2nd best race behind her real dirt win. With saying that I think she would have ran 2nd in last years classic... which would have still been an incredible achievement.

She's a spectacular filly who I'd like to see run against some actual competition. The only way she does that is running against boys or Rachel.

I'd bet against her with two fists in the Classic & against Rachel... but I hope she actually does it and proves me wrong because her career has been BORING save a couple races.

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

I couldnt agree more. Theres just something lacking in races run on polytrack. Pretty much all her races look the same. Zenyatta is freaking awesome but its a pity she couldnt be doing this on the east coast on dirt. Lets face it, we all know who the more memorable horse will be 5 years from now...unless of course they decide to run that horse on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST.

Hard to be fast on anyone's final time figures when you get drowned by the great Kelly Leak.

You'll be happy to know ... he was FAST on pace figs though! Do you hate parital race figs as much as final time figs?

[CSC]

Again, I don't know if anyone knows the answer to this but has Zenyatta's career poly numbers have been ammended and upgraded since Beyer has changed the formula for assigning synthetic numbers.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

she put away all the speed in the Preakness and still beat the closers in a race that set up perfect for MTB and Musket Man. on a track that you can clearly see, especially now after she just rolled over belmont, that she didnt handle Pimlico the same as Belmont and Churchill. After her race Saturday it became obvious.

Ginger Punch was okay.. nothing too special... After watching her few wins at Saratoga is snail like fasion she was nothing more than okay... prolly no better than Musket Man/MTB.

I said she was the fastest 3 yr old out there. I am not really buying the she didn't like Pimlico story. I think the margin was one length because she faced a couple ok horses...not complete garbage. If she ran against Stone Legacy and Malibu Prayer in the Preakness, she wins that race by 20. Her Beyers were 108, 108, 111 those last 3 races. She handled two of those tracks but not the third one?? Makes no sense. You said Ginger Punch was no better than Flashing and Malibu Prayer and Stone Legacy...not Musket Man.

[Bobby Fischer]

sooner or later this was going to happen...

we have a situation, where a match race needs to be created for pay-per-view

they've earned that big payday and the public wants it, it is just up to the owners to get on the same page and sign on with a solid promoter. The money is on the table.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard to be fast on anyone's final time figures when you get drowned by the great Kelly Leak.

You'll be happy to know ... he was FAST on pace figs though! Do you hate parital race figs as much as final time figs?

Kind of hard to gauge his ability when that is the only route race he's had on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness ... of course Zenyatta probably gets to her and goes by her late that day.

Still, we are taking about a 3yo filly in middle may vs. a 5yo that is easily the best older horse in the land on synthetic ... and easily the best older mare in the land on dirt too .. though more because the others kind of suck than anything else.

[tector]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

Dude, go back to one of the early Beyer books--somewhere among them there is a chapter entitled something like "How was the figured earned". Reread it, then check out the Preakness again. Maybe you will learn something.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Kind of hard to gauge his ability when that is the only route race he's had on dirt.

The immortal Gabby's Golden Gal ran a faster final time the same day going a route in the Sunland Oaks ... albeit with a candy trip and all.

I doubt KL is that much on dirt.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by tector

Dude, go back to one of the early Beyer books--somewhere among them there is a chapter entitled something like "How was the figured earned". Reread it, then check out the Preakness again. Maybe you will learn something.

DUDE

I'm every bit as good a trip handicapper as BEYER. That much you can bank on.
There's NOTHING in any of BEYER's books that will enlighten my perspective of the Preakness. But, thanks for suggesting how I can take my game down a few notches.

[tector]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness

Not only that, it was plain that she did not like that track. I am not talking about Calvin's statements after the race. While the race was running I turned to my friend and said "Look at her--she's running choppy, she doesn't like this track." I thought it was clear then and there. So while some other people discounted his statement, I thought it fairly obvious.

If you win the Preakness over a track that is not your best, contesting a wicked pace, you are some freaking horse--or filly.

[tector]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

DUDE

I'm every bit as good a trip handicapper as BEYER. That much you can bank on.
There's NOTHING in any of BEYER's books that will enlighten my perspective of the Preakness. But, thanks for suggesting how I can take my game down a few notches.

Well, we agree--you are beyond enlightenment.

Pass the bratwurst.