Mine that Bird

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He is a decent horse, nothing less, nothing more. The trip at Mountaineer was not really what I would call an ideal trip. He moved WAY too soon.

I agree on decent, decent for a grade 1 winning three year old

a "good" horse never loses the belmont or WV race though with bad horses collapsing in front of him.

[Thunder Gulch]

I don't care if Smith move too early or not. The fact is there was plenty of pace to run at and he couldn't get past Big Drama who was staggering home in 14.5.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I agree on decent, decent for a grade 1 winning three year old

a "good" horse never loses the belmont or WV race though with bad horses collapsing in front of him.

Who collapsed in front of him in the Belmont? That race (with that ride) cannot be picked out as one that proves MTB is not a good horse.

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Who collapsed in front of him in the Belmont? That race (with that ride) cannot be picked out as one that proves MTB is not a good horse.

NT

ok lets take the borderline derby at sunland (or whatever it was called)

[CSC]

Originally Posted by kgar311

That's why I said I think everything comes together for him this race. No more excuses here. He gets the trip, the ride and the setup and if he doesnt win well then I guess I was wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. If he wins I walk out of the track with fat pockets.

Usually when a horse needs a perfect trip, a perfectly timed ride, the perfect pace scenario, the perfect track...the perfect stars alignment, the perfect whatever....turns out to be not so perfect afterall. He's an okay to good horse, we determined that months ago his derby was not a fluke, actually I determined that the night after the derby but some are quicker than others....usually good horses are one's that overcome imperfect pace and trip scenarios, the fact that he can't really speaks volumes of his true abilty.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by CSC

Usually when a horse needs a perfect trip, a perfectly timed ride, the perfect pace scenario, the perfect track...the perfect stars alignment, the perfect whatever....turns out to be not so perfect afterall. He's an okay to good horse, we determined that months ago his derby was not a fluke, actually I determined that the night after the derby but some are quicker than others....usually good horses are one's that overcome imperfect pace and trip scenarios, the fact that he can't really speaks volumes of his true abilty.

Correct, but i am betting on the stars aligning for this horse. I think they get it right here

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Correct, but i am betting on the stars aligning for this horse. I think they get it right here

maybe so, good luck....but arnt there much better investments at 5/1 with a lot less "aligning" needed?

[boswd]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I think everything comes together for him in this race. The pace, the distance, the track. Will he ever win another major stake? I doubt it but I sure like him in this spot. Is he even the best horse in the race, my answer is no to that too. I think Quality Road is but asking him to go a mile and a quarter at this point off the injury is too much. And I sure would be licking my chops at 5-1.

I with you on this. I just have this feeling about MTB in this race with or without RA.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

maybe so, good luck....but arnt there much better investments at 5/1 with a lot less "aligning" needed?

Honestly I really dont think the stars have to align, but if they did that would be great. I think the work yesterday showed alot. He took to the surface tremendously. Hes put on some weight and looks extremely healthy and seems to be feeling pretty damn good too! Dont underestimate the power of Saratoga Racecourse lol. Horse for the course has never rang more true than at Saratoga. Some horses win there and dont win again until the following year when they come back. The ease he worked that bullet sold me on this horse for the Travers.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Correct, but i am betting on the stars aligning for this horse. I think they get it right here

For what it's worth I think he will like Saratoga more than Mountaineer, I'm just not sure he will be a fair price but who knows we've seen some strange prices at the Spa these 1st 2 weeks, however I won't be banging the door down to bet him. Goodluck if you you have a strong opinion about him.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by CSC

For what it's worth I think he will like Saratoga more than Mountaineer, I'm just not sure he will be a fair price but who knows we've seen some strange prices at the Spa these 1st 2 weeks.

Right and I say all this thinking I will be getting between 3 1/2 to 5-1. anything around 2-1 to 3-1 ill be spreading my bets around a little bit more. 5-1 everything goes on MTB

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I don't care if Smith move too early or not. The fact is there was plenty of pace to run at and he couldn't get past Big Drama who was staggering home in 14.5.

i usually put a line through good horses that race at tracks like sunland and especially mountaineer. i do it for keenland POLY now too since it doesn't equate to true dirt form. have you ever seen how mountaineer is configured? they would of been better off at monmouth. that horse had to move early, speed wins everthing at that strip! in my opinion MTB has had two bad rides in a row by two questionable jockeys. borel is great at CD, in ny (other major meets)hes never been much. smith probably felt like he had to be up there, to have any chance! that horse is good. who else came within a closing length of rachel? he needs the proper ride, hes a HARD horse to ride. you get one move at the right time or hes just a board hitter. any one that does not think this horse is good, is nuts. times at that track mean NOTHING. THE ONLY TIME THE TIME MATTERS FOR MTB IS THE FINAL QUARTER IF HES RESERVED FIRST MILE AND AN EIGHTH. HE'LL NEVER WIN RUSHING UP THERE EARLY ON!

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

maybe so, good luck....but arnt there much better investments at 5/1 with a lot less "aligning" needed?

So who are the better investments??

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

So who are the better investments??

Next time I handicap I will give you a couple, is that fair enough?

[Left Bank]

Yup.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He is a decent horse, nothing less, nothing more. The trip at Mountaineer was not really what I would call an ideal trip. He moved WAY too soon.

You're an ENIGMA. If the MNR trip is so obviously premature, how could you also not notice the premature move in the BEL?

I think the horse didn't handle the track last race. He's climbing and skipping (switching leads) in the run to the 1st turn like I've never seen him do before (I actually watched all his WO races.)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

How are you so sure the pace is going to work out for him? The pace was very fast in the WV Derby and that didn't seem to work out.

Give this horse Flatbold's run in the Jim Dandy and see what happens.

QR tackles 1 1/4 for the 1st time and Kensei is looking for another speed favoring setup. Odds of the Jim Dandy AND the Travers going 1-2 (or 2-1) around the track are good, aren't they?



Thanks to DrugS for pointing out that its the horse (not the jocks) making all those premature moves.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

His trainer has the coolest belt buckle in the world... so I'm obviously picking Mine that Bird based on the belt buckle angle..

Maybe Im wrong but reading Picking winners 101... It says "" At Saratoga, allways go with the ""Hat"" angle.... Even if your picking winners in the clubhouse !!!!!

[Bobby Fischer]

i didn't like the way he looked in the WVD. Obviously he is very small, but he usually looks ok in the stretch and gallop out, but he appeared to decline physically there.

He is a game little horse and he posses a long drive. He got one of the best derby trips of all time, probably the best. Not only the ground saving trip, but his positioning.
Preakness was a good race, he had a good setup with the chasers collapsing, Rachel was just better although he shortened the margin close to the wire. Belmont he was arguably best, at least there is a fair chunk of probability that he was best. WVD- i just didn't like the way he looked.

Kensai has a lot of horse, and Asmussen is "hot". One of Jackson's favorite horses. We haven't seen his depth since the time he was moved up, it's possible that with a tough race he could crumble or Prado could waste too much horse. If Quality Road sets a conservative pace, that helps Kensei. If someone else goes or if Quality Road gets brave and looms a winning threat entering the stretch - then it could help the closers

[Payson Dave]

He looked pretty bad on the main this morning....