9/12 (BEL): Ruffian H., Garden City S. (G1's)

[NTamm1215]

For all of the Desormeaux bashing that goes on (and I'm definitely one of the bashers) the guy is tremendous when it comes to assessing a situation and riding his horse like they're the best in the race. Case in point was the Sands Point when he capitalized on the paceless setup and took the race to them. He's very, very good when it comes to that stuff.

I can't imagine how anyone who has watched replays of races could like Miss World, Pull Dancer, or Shared Account, all of whom had incredibly perfect trips in their last races. They might have upside but upside, to me, comes into play when you have a vulnerable favorite. Gozzip Girl is not vulnerable at all.

NT

[Travis Stone]

If Kent takes her to the front and backs down the pace she'll probably win for fun. My thought was the way to play against her is to think he pulls back and tries to emulate that American Oaks kick in the stretch.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

For all of the Desormeaux bashing that goes on (and I'm definitely one of the bashers) the guy is tremendous when it comes to assessing a situation and riding his horse like they're the best in the race. Case in point was the Sands Point when he capitalized on the paceless setup and took the race to them. He's very, very good when it comes to that stuff.

I can't imagine how anyone who has watched replays of races could like Miss World, Pull Dancer, or Shared Account, all of whom had incredibly perfect trips in their last races. They might have upside but upside, to me, comes into play when you have a vulnerable favorite. Gozzip Girl is not vulnerable at all.

NT

I love Kent, I think he's top 5. I just think Gozzip is slightly overated. If Im right about that, any with upside can jump up and win.

[Dunbar]

Here are some prop bets on these two races from World Sports Exch (wsex.com):

Outcome Lengths Money Line
SEVENTH STREET/BE FAIR -160
FIELD (ALL 4 MUST GO) +130

Outcome Lengths Money Line
SWIFT TEMPER -1.0 -115
LUNA VEGA +1.0 -115

Outcome Lengths Money Line
GOZZIP GIRL -0.5 -140
PULL DANCER/MARAM +0.5 +110

Example: In the last one, if you bet on Pull Dancer/Maram, then if either of them finishes less than 1/2 length behind Gozzip Girl, you win $11 for every $10 you bet. (losing by exactly 1/2 length would be a push.)

--Dunbar

[Gander]

I think I'd rather wait and take a shot against a much more vulnerable favorite in Grand Couterier tomorrow in the Bowling Green. Granted, his price will be higher than that of Gozzip Girl, but I think hes twice as likely to lose as Gozzip Girl.

[CSC]

Looks like a chalky day at the office for the Ruffian and GC.

[Gander]

Thats why they run races on dirt and turf, not paper. Wow, what an upset. No excuse perfect trip for Seventh Street and did she ever look flat in the stretch.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Gander

Thats why they run races on dirt and turf, not paper. Wow, what an upset. No excuse perfect trip for Seventh Street and did she ever look flat in the stretch.

It's only a big upset because Seventh Street was so horrendously overbet. I figured she'd be 3-5, not 1-4. People really drank the "Godolphin is back!" Kool-Aid.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's only a big upset because Seventh Street was so horrendously overbet. I figured she'd be 3-5, not 1-4. People really drank the "Godolphin is back!" Kool-Aid.

They looked at her off-track record and sprouted wood and hard nips. I played my area code (215) for $5.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's only a big upset because Seventh Street was so horrendously overbet. I figured she'd be 3-5, not 1-4. People really drank the "Godolphin is back!" Kool-Aid.

I knew she'd be lower than 3/5. She didnt look good at all. Reminded me of Coccoa Beach when she lost in her first back on the dirt this year. Very dull effort.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Gander

I knew she'd be lower than 3/5. She didnt look good at all. Reminded me of Coccoa Beach when she lost in her first back on the dirt this year. Very dull effort.

She didn't run well but she ran significantly better than Cocoa Beach did in that ridiculous overnight race. The winning Beyer by the other-worldly With Flying Colors in that Cocoa Beach race was a 77 for crying out loud. Seventh Street at least ran a fast race today, the fractions were:

23.03 / 45.58 / 1:09.71 / 1:34.13 / 1:40.59

NT

[Travis Stone]

It's not like she looked spectacular coming down the stretch at Saratoga... it was just a matter of finding someone who could out-finish her.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's only a big upset because Seventh Street was so horrendously overbet. I figured she'd be 3-5, not 1-4. People really drank the "Godolphin is back!" Kool-Aid.

IMrbO ("in my red-boarding opinion"), anyone looking at the BSF's would have wondered why she'd be even 3-5. Both Luna Vega and Swift Temper had been running equal or better BSF's in their last few.

The bridgejumpers made a little money this time. Of the $323,368 in the show pool, 93.0% of it was bet on the Seventh Street entry. The previous race had 1/10th the show pool.

--Dunbar

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Gander

The Garden City is a nice race. So many of these are coming off very good performances in their last. Take a long look at Pull Dancer. She's really improving...perfect trip or not, she exploded last time. She may sneak away at a nice price with Gozzip Girl and Maram taking money for sure.

Nice way to begin what should be a fantastic meeting.

I'm with you on Pull Dancer. Outside of Gozzip Girl, she doesn't have much to beat. I'm shocked no Euros came over to steal the pot.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Gander

I knew she'd be lower than 3/5. She didnt look good at all. Reminded me of Coccoa Beach when she lost in her first back on the dirt this year. Very dull effort.

Really? She was up on a :45 and change half and was only beaten 1 1/2 in 1:40 and change. She was well clear of third. I'm no big fan of hers and Swift Temper was certainly best, but her effort was far from very dull.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

IMrbO ("in my red-boarding opinion"), anyone looking at the BSF's would have wondered why she'd be even 3-5. Both Luna Vega and Swift Temper had been running equal or better BSF's in their last few.

The bridgejumpers made a little money this time. Of the $323,368 in the show pool, 93.0% of it was bet on the Seventh Street entry. The previous race had 1/10th the show pool.

--Dunbar

I figured the "class of the race" angle as well as the connections would have her at around 3-5. As long as we're redboarding, I put a few bucks on Swift Temper, so I'm glad Seventh Street got bet like she did.

[NTamm1215]

GREAT ride Desormeaux.

NT

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

For all of the Desormeaux bashing that goes on (and I'm definitely one of the bashers) the guy is tremendous when it comes to assessing a situation and riding his horse like they're the best in the race. Case in point was the Sands Point when he capitalized on the paceless setup and took the race to them. He's very, very good when it comes to that stuff.

Not saying it was all his fault, but this reads kinda funny now.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not saying it was all his fault, but this reads kinda funny now.

You had to figure the first time I pay the guy a compliment he'd do that.

That was a 1st class horrendous ride.

NT

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You had to figure the first time I pay the guy a compliment he'd do that.

That was a 1st class horrendous ride.

NT

On top of him earlier on TVG saying she's the best horse he rides today....