2/11 ROTD Contest: GP 8th -- Deep OC/ALW (4:43pm EST)

[tigerfan]

Race: 8 Changes
#1 Brother Keith Scratched
#3 Brady Baby Scratched
#4 Presto Change O Scratched
#8 New Member Scratched
#12 Free Country Jockey - Kent J. Desormeaux changed to Joe Bravo
#15 Caixa Eletronica Scratched

[PeteMugg]

2,5,6,7

box it up, for a buck

[moses]

$1 trifecta box 2-6-13-14

[The Devil]

$ 1 bx.

2-5-9-11

[hockey2315]

$1 TRI 13 w/ 6,9,10,14 w/ 2,5,6,9,10,11,14

[TitanSooner]

$1 5,6 w 2,5,6,9 w 2,5,6,9,12,13

[Kasept]

$1 Trifecta (5-6-2) Paid $44.60

Duvalier, Pete Mugg & Titan all connect for $1. Kind of interesting that the depth of the field produced almost as chalky a result as possible with the top three choices in the triple. In fact, Imperial Council getting by Royal Vindication would have produced the favorite, second and third choices in order... And given the difficulty of structuring a play looking at that group, only a handful pressed a key with a higher denomination wager trying to multiply the $44.60 result. Feels like that was the right gambit too...

I suppose there's an essay in here somewhere, "When chalk rules in a difficult race". One thing that happened here was how directly the scratches affected the probable outcome. When other significant speeds (Brady Baby, Presto Change O and New Member) came out, it greatly reduced the possible chaos factor scrambling opening splits can produce, and most expected when initially handicapping the race. As was discussed in the Paddock post-scratches, Snapshot was going to be allowed an easier time on the lead, but still set serious fractions at 10-1 (22.3, 44.4, 1:09.2) before being collared by the tri trio in the final 100 yards and settling for 4th.

Under the scenario, Warrior's Reward became a very likely winner given his tactical speed, and I suppose his backers were happy with the 2-1 ($1.80) they got on him. He stopped the clock in 'race horse time' of 1:21.4. Disappointments in the race to me were He's So Chic (15-2) and Ling Ling Qi (26-1). Both have stalking gears that I thought would be highly beneficial here, as well as races in their past that looked good enough to at least contend for exotics roles. Ling Ling Qi in his first start on Catalano's watch ran like a carousel horse, and He's So Chic, fresh from being photoed against Formidable, didn't run at all.

Note that Presto Change O, who was my choice in this race before the SCR's, opted for Saturday's very deep Gr. II Sprint Championship stake where he'll face Pletcher's Munnings, Wolfson's Motovato and You and I Forever, a new stablemate in Solar Flare and 5 more serious candidates.