7/17 (CNL): VA Derby (G2), VA Oaks (G3)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Visually I did not like Paddy last run, seems like Kent went to work early and hard. Maybe Im wrong, but I think hes empty in the lane.

You're sure you watched the Colonial Turf Cup? He jogged while saving ground for three quarters, inhaled the leaders in a dozen jumps on the turn when asked for run, and widened with every stride the last eighth. It's tough to envision a more impressive effort.

He is tactical. Has gears and a burst, and looks to have pace to stalk or rally into. He can adjust to any pace scenario and shouldn't get beat.

[Sightseek]

Majestictroubadour's illustrious career has earned him a 40, 35, 33 and 64 beyer.

Awesome Dream is coming off a 2nd in a 30k claimer.

Formulaforsuccess can't beat 50K claimers and was destroyed in only stakes try.

Yikes.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You're sure you watched the Colonial Turf Cup? He jogged while saving ground for three quarters, inhaled the leaders in a dozen jumps on the turn when asked for run, and widened with every stride the last eighth. It's tough to envision a more impressive effort.

He is tactical. Has gears and a burst, and looks to have pace to stalk or rally into. He can adjust to any pace scenario and shouldn't get beat.

Shouldn't get beat? I think shouldn't get beat is very over confident even if its just based on the much improved competition he faces this time.

Is it not the accepted opinion that poly and turf play the same? If this is true what was his excuse in the Bluegrass when SV totally blew him away? I did just go back and watch the race, and Kent scrapped pretty hard on him, now he did win off the right way but like Hoss said earlier he faced nothing. Doubles Partner was the co choice, co favorite and he did not fire at all, he looked uncomfortable from the very start. Im def. going to question what he beat, I think Krypton, SV and Todd's horse are all better then anything he beat last time, and Im guessing he goes off at around 6-5, so IMO he is worth totally tossing as far as the win end in the pick 3 and pick 4, beating him in those bets will lead to overlay payouts. Its not like he is a standout the 2 I mentioned, and even Todds IMO are as good as him. He is a bad favorite in this spot, and Im going to put some $ into trying to beat him. Even if I am wrong about him being empty in the lane, I still think 2,3 horses are as good as him and can simply out finish him.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Shouldn't get beat? I think shouldn't get beat is very over confident even if its just based on the much improved competition he faces this time.

Is it not the accepted opinion that poly and turf play the same? If this is true what was his excuse in the Bluegrass when SV totally blew him away? I did just go back and watch the race, and Kent scrapped pretty hard on him, now he did win off the right way but like Hoss said earlier he faced nothing. Doubles Partner was the co choice, co favorite and he did not fire at all, he looked uncomfortable from the very start. Im def. going to question what he beat, I think Krypton, SV and Todd's horse are all better then anything he beat last time, and Im guessing he goes off at around 6-5, so IMO he is worth totally tossing as far as the win end in the pick 3 and pick 4, beating him in those bets will lead to overlay payouts. Its not like he is a standout the 2 I mentioned, and even Todds IMO are as good as him. He is a bad favorite in this spot, and Im going to put some $ into trying to beat him. Even if I am wrong about him being empty in the lane, I still think 2,3 horses are as good as him and can simply out finish him.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Is it not the accepted opinion that poly and turf play the same?

If this is true what was his excuse in the Bluegrass when SV totally blew him away?

Depends on the course.

SV got a much better setup. Even a fundamental understanding of setups would make this obvious.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Depends on the course.

SV got a much better setup. Even a fundamental understanding of setups would make this obvious.

Of course, Paddy was up and on the pace, I get it. The odds were like 9-2 and 40-1 a bit more ressistance would have been nice. Is it not possible that simply when SV is right and on turf he just has a bigger kick?

[Indian Charlie]

My nuts hurt.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Of course, Paddy was up and on the pace, I get it. The odds were like 9-2 and 40-1 a bit more ressistance would have been nice. Is it not possible that simply when SV is right and on turf he just has a bigger kick?

There's a significant difference between SV and POP. The former needs a lot of help to win a race, the latter doesn't -- as he proved last time out. Not too many horses around that can win without help. Now, you can argue that POP got a nice inside trip last out but he passed 2 horses in a race with minimal movement and did it without help. SV can certainly beat him but it would have to be a race in which there is a lot of movement and POP is forced to move earlier in the flow. In other words, he needs to last move a collapsing field.

[pba1817]

IMO...

Try drawing a line thru Stately Victor's Blue Grass, and he pretty much looks like a 25-1 shot in here...

Krypton is suspect at beyond a mile, at 1 1/4? He might relish the added ground... but I won't be betting on it.

Two Notch Road, Krypton, Majestictroubador, Awesome Dream, Formulaforsuccess, are ALL need the lead or need to be near the lead types to run their best races.

I've been wrong many times before, but this sure looks like slam dunk for Paddy.

[Indian Charlie]

The Derby Trail Oracle has pretty much assured a win by him.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by pba1817

IMO...

Try drawing a line thru Stately Victor's Blue Grass, and he pretty much looks like a 25-1 shot in here...

Krypton is suspect at beyond a mile, at 1 1/4? He might relish the added ground... but I won't be betting on it.

Two Notch Road, Krypton, Majestictroubador, Awesome Dream, Formulaforsuccess, are ALL need the lead or need to be near the lead types to run their best races.

I've been wrong many times before, but this sure looks like slam dunk for Paddy.

You should try watching some replays sometime.

Paddy could win and is probably most likely to. But at what I think he'll be
(8/5ish) I think you have to try and beat him.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

There's a significant difference between SV and POP. The former needs a lot of help to win a race, the latter doesn't -- as he proved last time out. Not too many horses around that can win without help. Now, you can argue that POP got a nice inside trip last out but he passed 2 horses in a race with minimal movement and did it without help. SV can certainly beat him but it would have to be a race in which there is a lot of movement and POP is forced to move earlier in the flow. In other words, he needs to last move a collapsing field.

Help me understand something, help me become a better handicapper...
Is there and what is the difference between a horse making a premature move and just getting ran down, or a horse making a premature move and the race collapsing? If you make a premature move and get beat, by the horse making the last move that dosent mean the race collapsed,does it?

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You should try watching some replays sometime.

Paddy could win and is probably most likely to. But at what I think he'll be
(8/5ish) I think you have to try and beat him.

The goal is to pick the winner, right?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by pba1817

The goal is to pick the winner, right?

Why the sarcasim? I agree with him, Paddy IMO will be around 6-5 and is a pretty bad favorite, look at the trip he pulled last time, never once left the rail, not untill he made the winning move, no traffic, no checking, no getting boxed in, just a perfect trip.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by pba1817

The goal is to pick the winner, right?

Absolutely, who said it wasn't?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why the sarcasim?

You're not helping here.

[RockHardTen1985]

They have an All Stakes pick 5, not sure if its a 50 cent minimum. Also not sure if its even playable, the first 3 legs are WIDE OPEN.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why the sarcasim? I agree with him, Paddy IMO will be around 6-5 and is a pretty bad favorite, look at the trip he pulled last time, never once left the rail, not untill he made the winning move, no traffic, no checking, no getting boxed in, just a perfect trip.

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic... I am just saying, the goal is to pick the winner, yes it is great when you can pick a a winner that is juicy rather than being a chalk eating weasel, but in this race I think the chalk is by far the most logical selection. And at 8/5 I think is a good play. Exactas, and tri's.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by pba1817

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic... I am just saying, the goal is to pick the winner, yes it is great when you can pick a a winner that is juicy rather than being a chalk eating weasel, but in this race I think the chalk is by far the most logical selection. And at 8/5 I think is a good play. Exactas, and tri's.

Why would he be 8-5? He is 7-5 morning line? I dont think he is any higher then 6-5 and I think its possible people get crazy and he is odds on. I play chalk a lot, I single chalk all the time in my bets, I think the term chalk eating weasel is crazy, but I think there is good chalk and bad chalk, and I think Paddy is bad chalk, for example the race before, Ramon is 7-5 ML I think she is good chalk and a very likely winner.

[pba1817]

I think SV and Interactif are going to be bet down... but arguments like this are why they run the races, right?